Member Info for Professor1

Hi Bhargav

Long time ,no speak. I am sitting currently on the sidelines and will decide after what news comes out of PAT - you MAY want to look at what's happening there. News soon

Hi Mickey

I think exactly that too. It's another way of saying to LCM to please can they pause their work a little longer as it may not be needed at all.

It's also another way of showing us shareholders, I believe:

1) JV is getting close to completion
2) More importantly, any whiff of a JV = Agreement with the government of Rajasthan
3) As Mark put it, everything needs to come together

I also strongly believe that its going to be a struggle to buy any shares on the news of the JV.

GLA

Spot on Mickey.

FREE MILLING = > 90% GOLD RECOVERY

JUST CAN'T GET ANY BETTER THAN THAT

GLA

Hi ID78

Contrary to your statement "But recovery for HL is not so good, I’d be surprised at 80%… more 50 to 60%?..".,

I have just studied the RNS that was released by Diamond Field Resources on 11 March 2022. This states "Preliminary metallurgical test work was conducted by previous operators High River Gold Mines Limited and Taurus Gold Limited. This work suggested that the gold present in the license area was treatable by conventional cyanide leaching. RECOVERIES WERE SEEN TO BE 90 TO 98% IN THE OXIDE ZONE AND 82% TO 93% IN THE TRANSITIONAL AND SULFIDE ZONE. During the exploration work undertaken by Moydow, Leachwell accelerated cyanide leach testing was used alongside fire assay analysis of the drill samples AND THE RESULTS HAVE PROVIDED FURTHER INDICATION THAT THE GOLD MINERALISATION IS ESSENTIALLY FREE MILLING IN LINE WITH HISTORICAL AND REGIONAL METALLURGICAL RESULTS".

GLA

Compare the $18m spending on Labola with Newmont's $30m spending on OMI - BUT that is over a 12 year period.

Diamond Drill see a huge multi-million ounce potential at Labola - 22 targets identified.

GLA

There should be one RNS this week about the remaining payment to the Indian JV partner whose shares we acquired some time ago

https://youtu.be/R4f7NcrKKPs

Indeed, I had not got round to updating the figures for the increased shareholding to 130m.

On Labola, correct me if I am wrong, are we not on a free carry here as Diamond Drilling are going to spend $18m.

RE: Morning All15 Jan 2021 13:32
Hi Mickey

You had asked me for some estimation on LABOLA.......which I now detail :

****Based on the previous drilling however, an Exploration Target of 15-30Mt grading between 1 and 1.5g/t Au (0.5 to 1.5Moz gold) is interpreted. The area has previously been extensively drilled by two companies, Taurus Gold and High River Gold, who each held separate parts of the area with some overlap. All up, over 65,000m drilling has been conducted on the project as shown on the table and image below. " THE AREAS OF ARTISINAL MINING SUB-PARALLEL TO THE THREE MAIN ZONES SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL EXPLORATION POTENTIAL EXISTS OUTSIDE THESE ZONES AND NOT COVERED BY PREVIOUS DRILLING ". *******

Please feel free to correct me on the undermentioned parameters / assumptions that I have used in my calculations and if required, I will re-calculate the workings:

PARAMETERS (AND ASSUMPTIONS) USED ARE AS FOLLOWS:

a) Strike length = 9km (=9000m)
b) Width = taken average across the strike length = 0.3km (=300m)
c) Depth = taken average across the strike length = 0.1km (=100m)
d) Density for the area = assumed industry average in west Africa = 2.4 Tonnes /meter cube
e) You will note later in the calculation that I will aim to take ONLY 1/10 th of estimated resource figure to take account of the fact that even though some holes may have returned say over 100 g/Tn, these COULD BE isolated ones or indeed the width of the depth in some areas may not be the same as assumed throughout the strike length of 9km. I have even gone further to reduce the strike length of 9km TO ONLY 1/10 th on the assumption IF the strike length was NOT CONTINUOUS ( IT MAY BE THE CASE THAT THE WHOLE OF THE STRIKE LENGTH IS CONTINUOUS and I therefore do not need to reduce 9km to 1/10th)
(f) Based on the company data I have taken 1 g/T grading
(g) Recovery rate of gold = 80%

So, here it is:
(1) 9km x 0.3km x 0.1km x Density
(2) = 9000m x 300m x 100m x (2.4 Tonne/meter cube)
(3) = 270,000,000 meter cube x 2.4 Tonne/ meter cube
(4) = 648,000,000 Tonnes
(5) Resource in grams = 648,000,000 T x 1 grams /T = 648,000,000 grams
(6) Resource in ounces - 648,000,000 grams / 34.2857 = 18,900,000ounces DIVIDE BY FACTOR 10 = 1,890,000 ounces
(7) Recovery rate of gold (say 80%) x 1,890,000 ounces = 1,500,000 ounces
(8) ********This would be similar to GGP's share of their recent find.*********
(9) If this turns out to be the case then at 1.5m ounces, the impact on PAT share price can be very significant. AND, IF ARTISINAL MINING SUB-PARALLEL TO THE THREE MAIN ZONES SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL EXPLORATION POTENTIAL EXISTS OUTSIDE THESE ZONES AND NOT COVERED BY PREVIOUS DRILLING then there is potential to increase the resource as the company has suggested.

LABOLA RESOURCE ESTIMATION - 500,000 TO 1.5M OZ04 Feb 2021 16:48
RECAP FOR ANYONE NEW

SO HOW DOES LABOLA PROSPECT OF 1M OZ COMPARE WITH BURITICA 11M (YES -ELEVEN)) OZ IN CONTINENTAL GOLD (ACQUIRED BY ZIJIN IN 2019)

1) RESOURCE IN MILLION TONNES
a) Measured = 1.4 MT
b) Indicated = 14.6 MT
c) Inferred = 21.9 MT (The point to note here is inferred is nearly 1 and 1/2 times more than combined measured + indicated
2) Gold price in January 2019 = $1,278
3) AIS Costs (ASSUMED) = $800 ( I will assume the same later for PAT)
4) Margin = $1,278 less $800 = $478 per ounce
5) Profit over life of mine = 11,300,000 oz X $478 = $5,401,000,000
6) Outstanding shares in Jan 2019 = 203,000,000
7) Market value in Jan 2019 = $812 million
8) Therefore, in Jan 2019 the market value is 15% of the total future profits ( i.e. $812,000,000/$5,401,000,000)
9) Share price = $812,000,000 / 203,000,000 shares = $4 per share IN JANUARY 2019.
10) Share Price in pounds = $4 / 1.7376 (exchange rate in 2019) = £2.30.

PAT - WITH LABOLA 1.0M OZ RESOURCE ESTIMATE

1) Gold price in Jan 2021 = $1,800
2) AISC = $800 (Assumed same as in Continental Gold)
3) Margin = $1,800 less $800 = $1,000 per ounce
4) Profit over life of mine = 1,000,000 oz X $1,000 = $1,000,000,000
5) Outstanding shares = 86,000,000
6) Market value % as per Continental Gold = 15% X Profit of $1,000,000,000 = $150,000,000
7) Therefore Share Price = $150,000,000 / 86,000,000 shares = $1.70 per share
8) Share Price pounds = $1.70 / 1.37 = £1.20.

MICKEY AND ALL, PLEASE SEE BELOW MY POST DATED 20 NOV 2021 -

" RE: Sat mull...20 Nov 2021 12:37

Good morning all

The key, and MB knows this well, is to get a very very credible JV partner. Its a great move but MB has this opportunity to bring in a major partner. It adds weight that PAT means business before the PL is granted by the State Govt - and indeed if amicable discussions are going on as MB mentioned, it may well be one of the conditions imposed on PAT to get a serious JV partner in.

SP wise, when we get the PL, we cannot compare ourselves with GGP simply because the Jorc + Jorc equivalent resource is some 6.7 million ounces currently with 10 million talked about by PAT and on all that currently PAT has the right over it where as GGP has only some 1.5 m ounces with nearly 4 BILLION shares in issue.

I believe, once the JV is formed, the JV partner will have to pay a substantial sum to get into the JV and this is where MB has the upper hand as PAT can decide who to bring in with such vast resource already in the bag - its not that we are going to explore how much resource is there. This will command a very high premium from the partner to join into the JV- I believe that will initially have significant positive impact on our SP.

In MY VIEW, PAT seems to be the real JEWEL IN THE CROWN of all the junior gold mining companies out there even including OMI (who have yet to prove the resource even with 2 major in the JV). And, on this basis, I believe there is no point chasing "we are drill ready" RNSs from companies - Yes by all means have a well diversified portfolio - talking about which I am just recaping my knowledge on the Portfolio Theory and Capital Asset Pricing Model.

GLA and do your own research throughly before putting money into companies."

NEXT I WILL LOOK AT ANALYSING CASCADES

Hi Mickey

Its my pleasure.

Indeed, we just need that green light from Mark as you mention.

From my previous analysis based on statements from Mark, one can conclude that a sheer mention of the JV in an RNS would imply that an amicable resolution with the government of Rajasthan has been achieved first - THE TWO ARE INSEPARABLE SINCE MARK STATED THAT EVERYTHING NEEDS TO COME TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME.

I would like to pick up some of the statements made by Mark in that video interview with Proactive Investors:

"I like an amicable resolution".
"had number of meetings with various government representatives and we are encouraged by the response".
"The government representatives want a resolution as well, they want the jobs, they want the investment".

HERE IS THE BIT I REALLY LIKE

"We also need....aa....it will be helpful in resolving these issues if we do have a local partner"

AND HERE IS THE BIT I REALLY REALLY LIKE

"and the two don't.......aa....the two don't.......aa.....everything needs to come together at the same time that's what I am trying to say"
"and we are well advanced in identifying SEVERAL potential partners"

HERE IS THE BIT I REALLY REALLY REALLY LIKE

"AND AT THE MOMENT OUR FOCUS IS TO TAKE ALL THAT INFORMATION AND THOSE BUILDING BLOCKS AND PUT TOGETHER A ROADMAP THAT ALL PARTIES INCLUDING THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA, A POTENTIAL JOINT VENTURE PARTNER AND OURSELVES WILL BE HAPPY WITH"

1)I believe that this latest trip by Mark appears for the above purpose of putting that roadmap which everyone will be happy with bearing in mind he has said that he has lost count of the number of trips he has recently made to India. Note the statement "AT THE MOMENT OUR FOCUS IS TO TAKE ALL THAT".

2) We need a JV partner to drive this in India with local expertise due to the sheer scale of the PROJECTS (remember it will not be just Bhukia - there is also Teragaon project) and hence Mark's statement that "we are well advanced...........potential partners".

3) The CRITICAL BIT is this statement from Mark "and the two don't.....aa....the two don't.....aa.....everything needs to come together at the same time that's what I am trying to say and we are well advanced in identifying the JV potential partners"

The potential JV "PARTNERS" I believe must have had a gooooooood look at this "TIER ONE WORLD CLASS" project and could be fighting over the bidding battle to be our JV partner......subject to (4)

4) However, I believe this HAS TO BE negotiated IN TANDEM with what the government of Rajasthan wants out of this (Focus on the words from Mark - "EVERYTHING NEEDS TO COME AT THE SAME TIME"). It may well be possible that the mining company of the govt of Rajasthan comes in also as a JV partner. (Please note the reference by Mark to potential "JV PARTNERS"). I believe once the new JV partner and ourselves are happy with the extent to which the govt of Rajasthan (possibly via their mining co) wants out of this then it appears EVERYTHING will be put together all at once.

GLA -but please do your own research before investing

Kitrash

We have to trust Mark when he says he has been making good progress with the powers to be to reach an amicable solution that will be in the interests of all parties including the govt of Rajasthan.

I will come back on my hypothesis on how this is all going to work out in due course. GLA

Agreed Mickey, want to buy more of these whilst low price

That's what I believe will be the case too.

One has to go back and ask the questions as to:

A) why Bido and Basalla have suddenly been put on a backburner
B) why we entered into the cascades JV
C) crucially why so many visits to India

Clearly I believe MB's time and presence in India may have reached a critical turning point

I am working on one other theory which I will share in time to come but I need to revisit all the RNSs and video presentations for that first

GLA

Good morning all. Good to hear Mickey.

Just topped up 39,506 at 4.05.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/F6AyA4L_49w?autoplay=1