Member Info for Professor1

Super super news

Ejt7777

I too wanted to check this out - so Mark is planning to be in London sometimes middle of this month. Hoping for a detailed interview or something.

Exciting times ahead.

this is amazing to find out after doing a bit of research:

check out linkedin - tim hargreaves, who is currently panthera director, was a ceo of teyhan copper company from 2005 to 2007, a company whom the icsid tribunal awarded $5.9 billion in a case against the ****stan government

gla

Hi Hopeful

That's the one.

Sorry can't get the link to work but copied below.

The present value, based on 7.7 million ounces, has been spelt out in Indian Rupees I.e. roughly $2 billion

"Jaipur: Despite the discovery of gold reserves in Bhukia-Jagpura area of Banswara, the state government was not able to auction the mines due to a pending case in court. Since the court has ruled in favour of the state, the mines can be auctioned now.

ACS mines Veenu Gupta said that necessary formalities are put in place for the auction of gold mine in Bhukia-Jagpura of Banswara. She said that deposits of gold, copper, cobalt, and nickel have been found.

Gold reserves could be worth Rs 10,000 crore and copper Rs 7,720 crore, she said.

During the exploration conducted by the Geological Survey of India in 1990-91 in Bhukia-Jagpura, three blocks of 69.658 sq km were reserved for exploration when indications of gold were found. As per the exploration results, gold reserves of about 114.76 million tonnes with content of 1.945 gram a tonne have been found in 14 blocks. "

I am now fully convinced, based on the Times of India article, that we will put in a claim, not in the region of $1.5 Billion BUT $2 Billion . Will post it when I have free time

Happy days for all negative posters

GLA

1) As we all believe, the claim is going to be BIG

2) Its now the fifth largest economy in the world so they are able to and can pay - the arbitration judge(s)will be aware of this

3) MB and his team have also been preparing for this eventuality and therefore collecting all the evidence required ( Fascen's due diligence) so I don't think there can be too much delay in the claim being lodged

4) I had read somewhere that India has one of the highest number of cases against it under BIT

5)The message being conveyed by the Indian government is that they are far from an international friendly destination at a time when they want to attract inward investment

6) Will they offer early settlement? Most likely in my view as they are thinking ONE MORE BIT to deal with otherwise and limit any further reputational damage

7) How soon can this come - I believe it can come at any time once the claim has been lodged and the quantum of the claim becoming known to the govt

8) How much should we accept? Assuming we may put in a claim of say $1.5 Billion (AND I HOPE WE DO AROUND THIS SUM), and it would likely take 3 years for BIT to conclude, we can present value this sum over 3 years at a discount rate of say 10% and arrive at a value now of some $1.13 Billion.

9) Will the arbitration committee only award say 20% of the claim value lodged? I don't think you can apply this percentage universally as in the case of PAT, there is already a Jorc/ Jorc equivalent of approx 7 million ounces already established( MB and the team will have provided the relevant evidence to Fascans)- it's not that we have yet to commence the drilling to establish the resource

10) Should we accept any lower? NO, BECAUSE WE KNOW WHAT THE GOVT INTENTIONS WERE FROM THE MOMENT THEY TRIED ALL THE TRICKS IN THE TRADE TO FRUSTRATE AND EVENTUALLY EXPROPRIATE PAT'S RIGHTS. THEY THOUGHT A MINNOW LIKE PAT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE ANY ACTION AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF TIME, FORGET ABOUT THIS. HOW WRONG AND PAINFUL THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE FOR THE GOVT

GLA

Will post asap

And sorry one more thing, although international arbitrations do normally take 2 to 3 years, it all depends on how weak the opponent feels - so settlement CAN COME at anytime in my view

Excellent points PK and all.

All I will say for now is that I believe TODAY WAS THE BEST DAY FOR PAT!!!!!

Will catch up tomorrow after some research

"Under the Treaty, compensation for EXPROPRIATION is required to be calculated on the basis of the market value of the investment immediately before the expropriation. The Company believes that the market value of Bhukia is substantial with the project ranking among the top undeveloped gold projects in the world"

i will keep on accumulating whenever opportunity arises because of a clear end game now. and, if the ****stan govt case is the basis to be used then i am not far out from the present value calculation of $1.5 billion that i worked out on the basis of future cash flows from the project.

here is the thing

when we are eventually awarded and if say the award is indeed around $1.5 billion, the govt of rajasthan will have a roughly similar present value over the life of say 25 years of the project but they will be paying us that upfront after borrowing that kind of a sum- what will they gain - nothing

gla

hi ejt7777

i am not sure how long it will take - i will have to read up on the ****stan case which i mentioned before to establish the timeline.

BIT CLAIM gives us value quicker and PAT van develop other projects.

$1.5 Billion claim as a present value I expect Fascans to lodge on behalf of PAT. At that point, I expect market to reflect at least 20% of that claim value in the share price, I.e.£2/ share

NOW WE WILL HAVE A SECOND RNS SHOWING THE QUANTUM OF THE CLAIM WE ARE GOING TO MAKE - WAIT FOR IT. MB IS NOT GONNA SIT BACK

as mentioned earlier, the option for bit was always a better one. based on the recent award against the ****stan government in the sum of some $5.9 billion which was based on the discounted cash flows from the project, pat's case will be the same. the international tribunal now focus on the future cash flows forgone as a result of the expropriation of the assets.

Buying opportunity

IS COMING

Building stake??????

That's bloody amazing. Bido and Kalaka too offer huge potential with numerous targets identified.