Member Info for Professor1

The way I see it , 3 points to make:

(1) I think that the govt at all cost would want to avoid going to arbitration

(2) the govt is too greedy to give us a majority 51% holding. And, MB I don't believe will accept this proposition.

(3) That leaves us with the option of out of court settlement. I suppose this could come at any time, it just depends on what's on offer.

My own preference is that MB gives them prior notice of a claim amount of $1.5 Billion before it is lodged ( As I said before, this may already have happened). This is appropriate as based on discounted cash flows which the international courts apply. ( see earlier post to the case where discounting was applied).

I don't believe the courts in our case will apply 20% ruling if it went to tribunal as we already have a Jorc of 1.7 m ounces and a further Jorc equivalent of 5m ounces.

Based on the above, we should not accept anything less then 50% of the discounted cash flows. I.e. approx £ 775m based on rough calculations.

Could the govt agree to pay us a sum which MB cannot refuse as a out of court settlement. If say we have told them in the polite notice that the BIT claim will be in the sum of £1.5 billion but they offer us £775 million? Would that be acceptable sum? i.e. £5/share

Any thoughts?

MB came back on the BIT time frame - it roughly takes cases about three years - this is from the icsid data.

Lets see how the court case pans out on Wednesday. As I said before in my last post "Knowing MB has a very diplomatic approach, the Indian authorities are served I believe one last opportunity to agree on something".

This COULD POSSIBLY happen on Wednesday. It certainly will be a very interesting day - hoping that the judgement will run into several pages instead of the usual one liner

Knowing MB has a very diplomatic approach, the Indian authorities are served I believe one last opportunity to agree on something.

There have been a huge number of cases brought against the Indian government in the recent past, not just by local companies but international ones. And, these latter ones are a worry for the Indian Govt I am sure. Will PAT join that list remains to be seen - it will certainly prove or disprove how much protectionism has taken hold.

Agreed Shearclass

I cannot believe how they can do other foreign investment deals when you have this kind of asset grab. I mean the good reputation is most definitely diminishing

Should we buy out GGP with some of the funds?

By the way, I have written to Mark on the timescale but have not yet heard from him

Hi Mickey

If they have to say pay us under the BIT approx $ 1.5 billion, this is roughly the same amount which you get if you present value the future cash flows for the mine life of 20 to 25 years. Remember, they have to fund this amount to pay us.

On the flip side, the value we get up from of $1.5 Billion, if you put that in the money market at the base rate of say 5% for 20 to 25 years, it will amount to future cash flows equivalent to what the Indian government will get in terms of cash flows from the project.

I certainly prefer the reward upfront

The Indian market is huge with obesity and diabetes one of the highest in the world.

Time to keep loading here.

G LA

What's rrr got to do with moti group? Can you please explain

Mega companies companies ca have extremely low grades like Evolution.

If the company thinks that it has potential to have a mega mine in Cameroon even as low grades as Evolution then I don't care how they raise the money under the current circumstances ORR is in.

If we cross 1 million ounces on Labola..............

Then if we cross 1 million ounces on Kalaka..........

Then BIDO......who knows

Hi Mickey

Just picked up all the posts - will check on the timeline with MB

Compare that with Evolution mining. It has a market cap of Aus$6.798 Billion with current share price of Aus$3.70. At one of its four mines in Australia called Mt Rawdon (open pit), it has so far produced (since 2011) nearly 2m ounces.

At this mine:

It's Mineral Resources are at a mere 0.52 g/t

Its Ore Reserves are at a mere 0.61g/t

I am hoping that we are indeed in a similar sweet spot in Cameroon

Excellent opportunity to load up even more

Good opportunity to top up here

These are bloody high lithium grades. Excellent

I think a nice polite letter must have been sent to the government saying come to the table otherwise have no choice but face a claim of $1.5 billion at international courts. This sort of sum will rattle them and make them think.

So I still believe a negotiated settlement will come through even though my preference is the claim under the BIT.

G L A

It's a game changer in the world of cancer treatment

Guys

Whilst we wait for PAT news, I just wanted to bring to your attention, if you were contemplating other investment beside PAT, of another company where I am invested called AVACTA.

Their RNS is our today. Broadly, they use the existing cancer vaccine but have developed to deliver to only the timor area and shrunk it- so no side effects whatsoever.