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On some meaty late report trades posting after close today?

My mouth shut.

Better to stay quiet and have people think you are a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.

Actually was just offline spending time with family while we had the chance.
Big Pharma are already in production planning process for not just wave 2 but wave 3 and in one case I have heard of a wave 4 plan.
I assume for the most part this is more routine production plans than covid cure or prevention plans.
Anticipating a tough run through European winter season.

Back to bpc.
I topped up post merger at around 2.5p
I posted it here, I got a bit of stick as the price fell.
Sure I could have waited and got in lower.
I hadn't anticipated the early share dumping- my bad.
I added more at 2p but stayed off the BB and left the children to play. Sometimes they need to get their petty squabbles out and done without the grownups.

I am no more or less comfortable with my shares in bpc today than I was 3 months ago, I just have a few more.

Nice to see a few more of the grownups back in the room also.

Hope all are safe and well in these interesting times we live through.

RNS sweepstake?

thanks ether

re-post - the ether stole the last one, it may resurface.

Certainty:
FWIW and AIMHO.

Certainty can be many things.
I believe we have route 1 funding secured and certain in the existing CLN.
We know the business was exploring better options.
Preferred option has always been a farm in. Either there is now a deal on the table with a few points to iron out. Or, there is no deal on the table and there is an internal deadline (go/no go) decision on drilling alone. Either way certainty on the farm in option (at this stage).
Better deals than the CLNs. The business has either got close to an agreement on a better finance route or has exhausted all options available without an improvement on terms.
Either way there is improved certainty.

Certainty can be both a positive and a negative conclusion on explored options.

I do hope POC is correct and that the farm in is close.

FWIW and AIMHO.

there is certainty about route 1 finance through existing CLNs.
there is increasing certainty over route 2/3/4/n finance (positive or negative)

e.g. preferred finance option has always been stated as Farm in. There is either now a deal on the table with minor points to iron out. Or, there is no deal on the table at this stage and the internal deadline to pursue one ahead of the drill is pending.
Certainty comes from either a signed farm in deal or the deadline passing.
Better terms options. No secret the business has been looking for better terms than the existing CLNs. Certainty comes from either agreement on better terms or the exhaustion of better term options available.

Certainty can be a positive or a negative conclusion.

really really needed the cash for a mars bar.

18-Aug-20 15:08:30 2.00 40 Sell* 2.00 2.10 0.80

Or did one of our hopeless ramper / de-rampers reach their entry / exit point and jog on?

And what we don't.

We do know that the SP is highly volatile. It has always moved hard and fast.
That is true in both directions.

We do know that there will be a positive RNS before Dec 15th re drilling.

If not we have bigger issues with Perv#1

What we don't know cash, people resource burn rate on former CERP assets.
How BPC plans to use CERP assets as leverage in the financial markets.
If having a trickle of production (non-profitable) and acquired rather than as evidence of ones own ability is of value.

If Harry really will jump ship at 5p or if he is still playing it like a fiddle.

Find out in the weeks ahead on BPC the new musical replacement for Coronation Street.

Potential and reality.
One night at dinner a son asks his father "What's the difference between potential and reality?"

His father says let me show you. He turns to his wife and asks "Honey, if The Rock offered you $1 million to sleep with him, would you?"

She says "Of course I would!"

The father then turns to his daughter and says "Sweetie, if Zac Effron offered you $1 million to sleep with him, would you?"

She says "OMG, yes!"

The father turns back to his son and says "Potentially, we are sitting next to a couple of millionaires. In reality, we're sharing the dinner table with 2 prostitutes."

Find me.

I wasn't brave enough or foolish enough to predict shares in issue.
I was confident it would remain higher than I have.

I think most of the 'new shares' and share options were well documented. However with BPC and AIM in general I would never rule out further dilution through new issues.
The curse of being ahead of the curve is you get diluted over time.

If only there was a way of expressing that feeling of 'that's life's in a romance language. Oh well c'est la vie.

Jim, love the MCap review.

Out of interest has anyone done the bopd and reserves (proven vs potential) if so please do share it.

When I last looked in Cairn were in the region of 20k bopd.
Not sure what resource they have.
Apache I think I remember seeing something mentioning 1bn reserves mostly Permian basin. No idea on production rates.

Often turn up en masse at times of share volatility.
Some may be paid, by whom? The unscrupulous.
Some as individuals.

All it tells me is that share price movement is inevitable when the big boys rock up and spout wisdom.

Happy trading.

fewer trades and lower volumes....or will there be a raft of afternoon trading and late reported morning trades?

Just trying to decide if i add a few more to the trading pot if we drop below 2. it will reduce the tranche i picked up at 2.5 earlier in the week. (could have timed those a little better, ah well, hindsight.)
Would still plan to trade them out between 2.75 - 3.25 - whenever that might return - for a post Covid shopping spree with my better half.

All have a good weekend, I am off for an afternoon doing nothing on the beach.

Play nice!

Can you be pro-oil but still anti-fracking?

That would really give the industry a jolt - but the US a kick in the dangly swingers.
Anti-fracking will be a hard sell in the US election, you would need to be very confident the environmental vote was worth more than the oil vote.

Trump whilst seen negatively in the UK press still has good support from the US voters. I don't like much of what he does, I don't like many of the ways he does the things he does, but the democratic process brought him to office and I will not be shocked if it keeps him there for a second term.

No plans to get into the debate over buys or sells but one indisputable fact the volume of shares traded is on the rise.

Who doesn't love a secret pot noodle.
We all know they are as good as turd water but they will always have a place in my heart (I would have said cupboard but I haven't had a pot noodle for years)

RNS.
Interesting, fanciful if you like. If the BOD can deliver that 5 yr plan it will come with a cost. Standing aside from the Perv#1 aspect if they can deliver 15k bopd that makes a decent revenue stream.
It will not be the cheapest oil extraction but if they can maintain $5 per barrel net profit...that is a good start.

So, funding is as it has often been with BPC the key.
We know the BOD are more interested in proving the oil is there than short term shareholder value. Dilute or die trying?

If only there was a good globally recognised expression in a romance language for 'what will be, will be'

JimTK.
So painfully accurate description of the BOD.
For newcomers look back at the open offer over subscription. Suspiciously the oversubscribed amount was as close to the contribution from the unwashed oiks like you and me as brothers and sisters from (insert joke location of your preference here).

IK. Agreed for the sit and hold pot I couldn't give a rats bottom what the day to day or even the week to week SP does or doesn't do.
The cashpot was looking healthy after a few recent dividends and the return of cash from WTG. I just fancied a few extras here to have a bit of a play.

The alternative was shoes, handbags and more little black dresses that look pretty much the same as the ones already in the wardrobe to my untrained eye. Spending has dried up over the last 6 months for some strange reasons.

IK - nice post.
I like the fight analogy. It reminds me of the old saying - when you pick a fight with a gorilla the fight is not done when YOU have had enough....

Short Term - i hold my hands up I had not expected quite such a quick re-trace to this level. I genuinely had expected 2.6 - 3.2 falling back to 2.4 - 3.0 range in the absence of news. (I felt it strongly enough to add a few to my play pot).
Implications - no shopping trip in Paris with Mrs P_I from a quick trade. That said Paris is looking close to a new lock down. Who knows my new shares might be blue by the time Paris is an option again.

Still confident of 3.0 - 3.2 opportunities in the weeks ahead.

to avoid being classed as a ramper - could just as easily fall back to 1.6 - 1.8.
(I just don't expect it without either bad news - or no news for 4 - 6 weeks)

OK so the swing took the SP a little lower than I had expected.
Not quite ready to change my SP range model yet, still predicting swings between 2.6 and 3.2 in the absence of news flow.
Have added a few more to a trading pot today (not enough to get excited about but enough to have a bit of fun playing)
2.75 gets a weekend in Paris with Mrs P_I.
3.25 and she can go shopping when we are there.

Before we get a drill in the ground there are no guarantees.
The geology looks good.
The proximity to known oil shows is a positive.
I look on the positives.

That said, we could drill. Hit the target. Have no drilling issues. Still find there is nothing there worth going after.

For any new readers this is a real possibility.

There are lots of LTH here, myself included, that like the BPC story. They either have confidence that the drill - if/when it happens will prove the presence of commercially viable oil. Or they see the gamble as worth the risk.

Do not be drawn in or caught up in the hype, do some research. Or if you are a gambler, have a flutter. But do so in the knowledge it could go wrong.

The value of your investment can go down as well as up.

Often found in the small print of general fund investment blurb.

In the case of BPC today it did go up, it has now fallen back.
I don't anticipate a great deal of movement (minor swings accepted) between now and a positive RNS.
It will more than likely bounce in the 2.6 - 3.2 range in the absence of news. If the absence of news extends 3 weeks plus then I would expect the range to fall back - marginally 2.4 - 3.0.
Personally very tempted to add a few to the trading pot just to have a bit of fun trying (and often failing no doubt) to call the swings.
this in no way reflects how I will maintain my core BPC holding, it is just somewhere to put a small bit of additional cash to play at being a trader. a few 5-10% swings buys a few bottles for the table.