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OK,

so having sat thinking it through till well past gin last night here are my thoughts.
There is no value in my thoughts, they do not constitute advice.
I am not looking to ramp or deramp BPC or CERP.

Notes:
1. I know less about the oil industry than many of the posters on the BB
2. I know less about financial instruments than many of the posters on the BB
3. I have been in BPC for 10+ years on the advice of a well trusted friend who worked in the area as a geologist long before I knew him.
4. He said that from the work he had done (80's) and the (at the time newer data) the BPC areas had significant geological indicators for oil being a strong possibility. This was before the 3D data was available to view.
5. SP for all the golf jokes on the BB has done a good job to date getting us where we were at the start of the week.
6. General consensus was that the Uruguay play was smart.
7. I am not over the moon about the CERP deal, timing influences my feeling here.
8. I have only done light touch research on CERP

I am here for the drill, I have to trust that SP continues to have the best interests of BPC shareholders behind his decision making process. His credibility is damaged irreparably if proven otherwise.
With the limited facts available to me I do not like the deal, however, I am willing to show faith in SP and will back the deal.

The market was down yesterday, the market is down again today. I suspect that in the absence of CERP news we could reasonably have expected to be down by 10 - 15 % (2.75p) so adjusted for that it is not a bloodbath.
The dilution will reduce the potential upside however, with this wave of dilution we are at least acquiring assets, cash generative assets.
The challenge for the business now is to reduce OP costs and increase production at CERP to make it cash positive at the same time as pushing on with the drill.

I think that potentially CERP holders have the better deal, that said, if there was any conditional funding for which CERP closes a gap for BPC and that is a missing jigsaw piece ...

For those looking to trade, I am sure there will be opportunities here and at CERP to trade the uncertainty in the days and weeks ahead. If you are honest enough to come on the BB and declare that is your play then I wish you the best of luck. If you look to play the BB in a dishonest way we have a BRYN that will mark your cards.

Bryn is that the 'mystery' ingredient in your gin?
In the absence of rohypnol - because that is very naughty but might help me forget the short term impact the merger talk has had on the SP...

Shamima03: You could probably make a fortune selling the Gin to investors on here. Think we would all do with a couple bottles while on the BPC rollercoaster!

P_I: if only someone on the BB was selling gin at a discount....

P_I is now refusing to form an opinion either way.
P_I is now doing investment decision by the ostrich method.
P_I is referring to themselves in the third person.
P_I needs gin.

both sets of PI's see it as a bad move for the respective share holdings.
market reacts negatively on both sides.

be interesting to hear from people who have relatively similar equity on both sides of the fence.

early summary thoughts

1. this put a dampener on my walk. Couldn't clear my head enough to work through to a clear opinion.
2. permission to ramble assumed
3. too small to be a defensive play to ward off a mid cap let alone a major
4. feels too early from BPC point of view to realise full value - assumes SP increases as we approach drill date
5. risks spreading resource required for PERV#1 both financial and personal
6. works as a long term get out of jail if we strike out on PERV#1
7. gives us a bigger and broader platform to attract investment into the business
8. cash generative - even if just to offset operational expenses
9. how is the deal seen by the 'family investor' ?
10. I need another walk

long term I hope this proves to be a smart move by BPC, I am just not getting it yet. However, like all P_I's I can only see a small snapshot of what is going on, there will be more going on in the background that I am not aware of, in that there can be no doubt.

going for a walk to think about this one.
Initial thoughts, there is more going on behind the scenes than we are aware of.

I like correcting younguns on less and fewer. It confuses them even more. (that could be the educator rather than the subject matter)
Makes me feel sorry for teachers of today, I do not doubt their intelligence or their ability to teach, but something must have gone wrong when these things are not corrected in school.

Perry I feel compelled to ask, what do you / did you do for a living?

funny old list.
Am I positive of the prospects, yes, with a regular note of caution that it could just as easily go to zero.
I do confess to posting two outrageously positive posts but anybody that read them would see quite clearly that they were highlighted as a joke post.

Now if there was a BB for beef and horseradish I would hold my hands up as number 1 pumper and after many many helpings no doubt a very heavy dumper also (sorry)

do I take it personally? not in the slightest. These things will be driven by the same algorithms that substitute a satsuma in place of a pair of orange shorts in grocery home shopping.
one is small orange trousers the other is small orange fruit. 66% of words are identical it must be a good sub.

3 statisticians on a duck hunt.
1 shoots 3 feet in front of the duck
the 2nd shoots 3 feet behind the duck
the third shouts well done team, bullseye.

Fatal, I would recommend that post twice if I could.

where is your sense of fun Keith?
I don't mind who it was, I don't mind what their intentions were at the time (some suggestions or running the clock down)
All that matters is that we get the drill turning and find a trap full of oil.
Which major may or may not then beat a door down to get talks (exclusive or otherwise) with SP becomes of interest. Does SP play hard ball if the clock running down play was true?
No, he does the deal that is best for BPC at the time.

as a shareholder all I want to know is how much and what % followed by the caterer for the next share holder event.
IF and it is a big if SP reads these boards I will expect nothing less than roast beef and horseradish sandwiches.

So SP you have splashed out on new prospects off the coast of Uruguay just ahead of Perv#1 getting under way here in the Bahamas. Why is that?
Well Journo friend (not OMJ as all he has is nice shoes) we have quite good intel on Perv#1. It will be generating so much cash even a stand up comedian with slick hair and shiny teeth couldn't hide it all. We are going to need to start buying stuff or our poor shareholders will need wheelbarrows for their dividend payments.
Uruguay is close, the weather is good, there is probably oil in there otherwise why would we have big boys drilling right next to our play?
Have you seen this new yacht I am buying, Roman Abramovich has one like it only 50ft shorter an 1 deck fewer.

So do you have anything to say the the BB posters and shareholders who for years accused you of doing nothing more than playing golf and living the exec lifestyle at their expense?

Where do you think this deal was done? Now, if you will excuse me I am off to play the back 9 with Ben Van Beurden and Darren Woods we had a 4 but Brendan Looney has backed out as we would not allow him exclusive rights on the par 5 14th.

if so share details and we will wish you good luck for your bravery and honesty

do you then have the courage Rickierich to have taken a substantial short on BPC?

I was brought up with the expression 'If you have nothing nice to say about someone it is better to say nothing at all' in that spirit maybe OMJ has nice shoes?

Laallee, that was a great advert for boiled eggs.
I think I am going to spend all evening looking forward to breakfast now.

Brilliant post again star.
Fantastic for people new to BPC and to compile in one place some interesting stuff for long timers.

@ hillbilly83
The 87p share price is an old timers BPC joke.
It was a well calculated share price at the time.
I don't remember who by.

However we have seen significant changes since those times.
Shares in issue has gone from 700m to 2300m.
Oil price has fallen.

My suggestion FWIW use the reported field size estimate multiply by the net revenue per barrel after extraction and royalties. Multiply that by the COS %.
That is a fair lifetime value of the field.
However as realising the value takes time it is best to do a NPV effect calculation to reflect.
Then divide that by shares in issue.

It is not 87p.

But it will never stop chatter of 87p.

NB this is just the first prospect to be drilled out of multiple license areas. If oil is found in PERV#1 (new name sticks with me) then COS % for other drill sites generally increases.

That said my personal expectation are that if there is a strong sniff of oil we will be taken out by one of the oil majors way before then.

BB notes.
There are some on the BB who have been here for years have done research for years attended company events and there are late to the party experts.
I am not saying that the late to the party experts are wrong or that the LTHs are right. Just that in addition to doing your research on the share it pays to do some on the poster before taking what they post as gospel.

****tail hour
11:00?
go on, you know it makes sense, those still in gainful employment working from home it is not like you have to drive anywhere?
Think how good it will feel to willfully violate the company policy on d**gs and alcohol.
Those not working, why wait till 11:00?