Member Info for Private_Investor

Either that or break the ceiling hit 87p before lunch and we can ignore the BB and make reservations for sandwiches and wine asap.

if the SP can trickle up nice and slow....
just keeping us off the radar of the clowns that descend on a BB when it appears on top risers or top fallers board that would be nice.
It keeps the BB a bit more civilized and allows the grown ups to chat in peace. (relative peace)

just for the pedants out there.

Not a done deal in the sense that we have the funding released.
Done in principle.
In that there is an offer for the finance.
There is an agreement in place on the terms.
There is not a repayment obligation as yet as the funds have not yet been drawn.

For those that have never played the game, next time you are looking for a mortgage see what happens if you do the same.
Get yourself a mortgage AIP with one lender at terms you are comfortable with. (Most people stop looking at this stage)
Now go to a rival lender, tell them up front you have an AIP from XYZ bank but were looking around to see if you could secure better terms....

I have done this twice and both times secured rates marginally better than the published rates.
It won't change your world in the low interest rates today but if they ever go back to the dark days of double digit rates a 10% discretionary rate discount can make a big difference.
And, if no better deal can be done, what have you lost other than a couple of hours shopping around?
Continuing to explore other financial options is smart business as long as the original offer is not withdrawn.

yonny, i would say yes if i knew what a Bahamian shirt looked like.
Can settle for 'dodgy beachwear that you wouldn't wear other than on holiday'

I know who my money is on for rocking the green mankini.

IK, just post a load of _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _'s in one post and we will call it quits with PI, P-I, Pie, just don't call me magnum and we will be fine.

I think by mid december that first pint will be so close you can taste it.
By mid Jan you will be able to smell the rib of beef cooking away.
Feb is a rubbish month, always has been, always will be. Unless you are one of those that gets a Feb birthday, or better still one of the 1 in 4 feb 'special' day birthdays it is hard to mount a case for the defence.
So maybe March, nice early spring weather, a walk from the station to a welcoming pint, a decent table of people to sit with and share BPC stories as we consume fine food, fine wine and decide who has worn the worst Hawaiian shirt.
(well we will need something to identify the shareholders in the venue)

he's IK the real IK all you other IKs are just imitating.
would the real IK please stand up please stand up.

mic drop.

Star: If the underlying assumptions are correct, the potential annual dividend per share could be more than today’s 2.4p share price. But DYOR.

P_I:
I did a few scenario models a while back and shared them (or at least the summaries) here in a positive post drill world for divi pays. On my most negative (positive drill result, 20% retained interest farm in model - with pre drill dilution at 50% and full spread of royalties based on BOPD) I stress tested the model with upper and lower bound production costs per barrel and the same for rate to market and POO - I confess my extract and rate to market figures were uneducated estimates based on a world where $45 POO was B/E for BPC)
It served to highlight to me just how sensitive we would be to a change in POO or production cost changes.

My av SP is going to be lower than many here today, I am in profit even at sup 2p.
That said in my model scenarios I was generally happy in a divi play world where 50% of annual net profit is returned to share holders.
I also played around with potential SP based on that as a 2,4,6,8 % yield.
That became very interesting.

I fully expect to be shot down by the derampers and bigged up by the rampers. Hence not showing the calculations this time. For the most part the people on the BB are intelligent enough to throw a model together in excel.

All that aside - and as much as I would like to see BPC take this all the way through to production and a world of dividend payments I expect if the drill results are positive we will be swallowed up and spat out long before production.

I have always been against the application of filters.
Even the special one had things of value to add to the debate - even if his style of post was brash.
I have always welcomed opposing views - my argument for them was that it is always better to have your own opinions and views thoroughly and vigorously probed. It either helps reaffirm them or gives you a previously overlooked reason to revisit them. Only a fool refuses to change their opinion when the facts as they see them change.

However, some of the new posters are having the IQ sponge effect for me. I would love to engage with them and bring them into the debate but I am not sure what colour crayon to write with to do so on their level.

I am sure I will miss some gems of wisdom as a result but it is time to filter out the trash or ignore the BB. I hope that the act of filtering does not remove posts in reply to trash but will take the risk.

Good bye trash.

No, not one of Bonum's tips.
It is easy to be an armchair critic when watching MOTD. Knowing you could have done better than the poor defender that gave away the penalty or played the in form striker onside.
Maybe you can teach Jurgen a thing or two about motivating a team?
Maybe you could teach Pep a thing or two on the simple philosophy of win the ball pass the ball?
Maybe you could teach Ole a thing or two on making bold decisions and letting big name players go so youth can come through?

If only you were brave enough to get up from the sidelines and take a chance.
Dowie did it, Shearer dipped his toe, even the Neville brothers had a go.
Not everyone is going to win the champions league but I have more respect for those that finish bottom of the regional conferences than any armchair critic.

Good luck to everyone that has gone all in, good luck to anyone who has had a little flutter. Good luck to anyone shorting you all have my respect even if I don't agree with your viewpoint or position.

Get your backside in here again soon.
We will save you a seat over here in the dark and stormy corner where heated debate is encouraged. Different opinions are applauded. When all is said and done we can settle things over a few pints.

If we can separate the men from the boys when the time comes, men know where we are going boys are probably going to get thrown out of Langham's.

Give it a few weeks and the overnight experts will have become experts on MATD.

I suspect the BOD are busy working on a plans to benefit in other ways on the back of item 3 getting rejected.
If as they say it was to align the BOD interests more closely with shareholders I have a very simple suggestion for them.
SAYE / BAYE works well elsewhere, the lock in period gives time for growth, the regular contribution / salary sacrifice gives a trickle of 'new money' into the pot. Not adding to the shares in issue then naturally creates a slow upward pressure on the SP. A Forfeit clause for early close out or an incentive to see through to term gives a bit of stability.
Then if the oil is there....they are very much aligned with the LTH's.
Maybe make it a pre-requisite to holding a board seat that within 12 months of holding a board seat you will have to have acquired a set number (value) of BPC shares - or link it to salary %

I wonder if these ideas have ever been tested before, either I am a genius - I am not - or they are already deployed elsewhere - they are -

So BOD, anyone with less than X million shares in BPC at the next meeting should just keep their coat on?
There are several posters on this BB who have both the skillset and the share holding.

(not me, i don't have the skill set or the work ethic anymore.)

not a one trick pony.
we are more like Aladdin with a lamp and two wishes already gone.
We have just thrown the third wish out there, if the genie grants it we are laughing.

Dearest genie, grant me unlimited wishes.
If the genie plays ball Aladdin is sorted, if not, life goes on.

For BPC if we drill PERV#1 and it is a positive result we are laughing.
If not, life goes on. We will have funding issues granted, but all is not lost whilst hope remains.

off for a stroll along the beach, play nice kids.

It could be the case that predator have very deep pockets.
It could also be the case that they have t-rex arms.

As an individual I could match the offer on the table, it doesn't guarantee that I will take the offer through to an acquisition. I could just be making noise.

Why would I do that?

The spotlight is very much on CERP / BPC at the moment.
Cheap and cheeky way to put the spotlight on predator?
Get investors who have an appetite for small oilies to take an interest....

Risk, CERP look at the predator offer more favourably than the BPC offer....

nice post, kudos.
I am a very low level trader, I am also a dividend farmer and a speculative gambler.
BPC has always for me been a punt. it sits in the speculative gambler section of my portfolio. However, it has done so for 10+ years based on reasons previously mentioned on the BB. There is a sound reason for me being comfortable with the scale of risk.
Over the past few weeks BPC have changed the risk profile. I think, with the limited information I have, that I can see some genuine reasons for the change.

I do wish I had 40+ year holdings in some shares but I am glad to say there are laws against investing at such a young age.
Some of my blue chips are getting towards 20 years and have done very well over that time in both SP growth and dividend.

All about balanced portfolio for me.
I will leave the big boy investors to do their thing, they are yet to learn there is more to life than just money.

Never aim to sell at the highest point. If you are 1 trade late you will be selling into a falling market.
Always aim to sell as the SP heads towards a peak.
Buy back on the slide if you think it will be a rinse a repeat share.

making money at someone else's expense.
Only partially correct.
If I invest in a start up that goes through rapid early growth and I sell after the world sees a future potential I make for example 10x my investment by selling to someone who missed the first phase. They pay a premium relative to me.

They then stay with the business as it grows from a start up with potential to a global brand and make 20x their investment selling out to a person who sees a strong stable mature dividend paying business that fits with their portfolio.
They pay a premium against both early investors but in return get lower risk high stability share without the prospect of multi x investment return.

It is all about where you sit in the cycle.

of course it could all go bottoms up and someone somewhere is left holding the well polished chocolate log. But that can happen at any phase in a business life.

Curiouser and curiouser! ' cried Alice (she was so much surprised, that for the moment she quite forgot how to speak good English) - Lewis Carroll.

Oh, what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive. - Walter Scott.

The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails. - William Arthur Ward.

Make of them what you will, interpret them as you see fit. Others will share and oppose your interpretation.
Some will feel they are personal, others will feel they are vindicating, me, I just think they are good quotes that sit well alongside shares and investments in general.

P_I, sitting on the fence as I can't be bothered with the pettiness that has become the BB recently.

Sitting on the fence gives you splinters. P_I (and many more before me but I can't be bothered to google who said it first.)

good to see some of the more professional posters arriving here at the BPC BB.
They normally only grace us with their presence at times of SP volatility.
They talk the share one way before an event, then they talk it the other way after the event, the really good ones then circle around and try to have another bite if the prize is still worth the effort.

History tells me to go in the opposite direction to the posts of sharks. The challenge is to differentiate between the sharks and the genuine posters. It gets easier over time.
Sharks typically don't have much posting history on a share where they are an overnight expert.

With all things if a poster tells you something is a fact they should be able to post a link to support that fact. If the link is genuine, you should independently be able to find several additional articles that support that fact. If not, consider that it may be not there for several reasons, maybe it is untrue, maybe it is true but is privileged information.

just a thought.

We all have a right to social distance even beyond the end of the imposed lock down.
What is clear is that some people - even some on this BB if the real life persona matches the BB persona should for the good of humanity have an obligation to continue social distancing as far as possible.

I have no issue with counter views being debated, I think it makes for a more informed decision process. However, the nature of some of the posts over the past few weeks have had me logging off and going for a walk.
Things get better for a few days and then we slide back to the playground "abbreviated Richard" swinging contest.

The good news, in short order we will have a decision on the merger, that can put an end to that point of contention. Once it is done/not done I see little point to continue arguing over the right of wrong of it. It will have happened or not happened. Move on.
Then in a reasonable time line (by BPC LTH standards we will have or not have updates on drilling commencement.
After that some will depart these shores having made what they needed or wanted, or at least stayed with BPC as long as they wanted, others will stay longer and see what happens next.
Some will meet up for a social event, share stories, eat, drink and then go on their way.
Others will not join the social gathering, that is their choice but I am without debate having a beef and horseradish sandwich with a glass of red. If Langans don't have it on the menu I will pop out to the local supermarket and improvise.

So There.
Look at me, if you grab the other end we can use it like a skipping rope.

Jim, you have pinpointed my challenge with the deal.
Without going in to the rights or wrongs of a deal for CERP my issue is with the timing of the deal and the relative SP movement expected over time.
CERP were trundling along, I did not see enough to fundamentally change the SP for them. There is an argument that the second well would open the taps, what this translates to in SP terms? 2x? 3x? I don't know.
With the path BPC was on what would the SP trajectory have been on the run in to drill 4x? 5x?

it is the relative movement gap that has left me with doubts as to the timing of the deal.

Either SP and the board know something we do not (and might not like) in the future of BPC as a stand alone. Or they see something in the CERP acquisition that supports BPC going forward that I do not see. Or this deal is not as great as they want us to believe.

I am reluctantly backing the deal with reservations. I do so knowing that the deal is now my high risk play rather than BPC as a stand alone being my high risk play.

If Bonum was still posting he would advocate a well discussed Mongolian outfit worth adding to the portfolio if you want a potential multi-bagger.