Member Info for Private_Investor

Fast track and BPC are not common bedfellows.

With the possible exception of both CERP and Uruguay in recent months.

Would be nice tomorrow.
It is BPC though so best not to expect anything, then you cannot be disappointed.

If it does come, whilst there will be sound logic for it to be positive I would never rule out the opposite.

I would like to think that "fully funded" suggests no more surprise placings before we get the drill turning on Perv#1 but there is still a niggling doubt. Hence my low ball 4.2 number last week.
If I take the letters BPC and my LTH status out of my analysis I think I can make a good case for sentiment FOMO and potential alone to nudge double figures before a pull back between now and spud. Just don't expect straight lines.

Legalise- use of the singular to imply the plural....

I will concede the point that we may strike water.
That event puts the SP at close to zero.

But play around with the various production model costs and revenues. Explore the numbers required for B/E .

If you still think it is all doom and gloom, if you still believe it is a lifestyle company that is ok. But do so whilst understanding the opportunity.
If you still think this is not for you, great.
Don't look back in 10 years and have BPC as your "one that got away" without knowing that if you had the chance again based only on what you know today you would have done things differently.

Regrets are fine if in your head you can look back and say you wouldn't have done anything differently knowing what you knew at the time. They are just missed opportunities. Regrets when you look back and think "it was all there in black and white but I misread it " they are the ones that hurt.

Ps.

Having done the calculations myself was one of the reasons aside from back costs and multiple well deals I would have preferred a farm in.
Having a major on board as a partner reduced the probability of selling out on discovery in my mind.

Very well put IK.
Very well put indeed.

Great post minimal.
I have done similar calculations myself. The royalties is a step rate based on production levels.
I think the extraction license runs for 30 years.
I have looked at it from a revenue, cost, pct profit as dividend, back calculated SP based on 4, 6, 8 pct SP as dividend etc.
Test it with 60 - 90 pct extraction over the term.
Test it with 50pct lower est OIP and be brave and try 75 pct upper est OIP.
Play around with extraction costs per barrel.
Play around with POO.

Some very interesting numbers.

I will say this, if you do the maths and post it on the BB you will get shouted down as a ramper.

I wonder what the company might use the profit not returned as dividend....assume successfully drilling, getting to production, making profit etc.

The downside to the exercise is the more you test the more I play with the numbers the more I suspect the company will sell out on a strike.

Good news/bad news.
Lower total benefit to shareholders, faster rate of return.
Selling the field rights rather than the company may be an option - like that model - as some of the other geology on other licensed areas look impressive (but come with higher drill costs, and production costs, but .....)

The tonic has worn off. Apologies for my quinine based posts.

No cucumber.
I am only just at the stage of allowing the odd slice of fruit in.

Why do I feel stone deal is more likely now than I did before?
Gut feeling induced by copious consumption of tonic. Blame it on the trace quantity of quinine?

My gut instincts are less than 50% right so don't take investment advice from me.

Farts are better in the wind than in a sleeping bag.

After making good use of some "stray tonic" watered down with Hendricks I got to pondering.
Dangerous game.
Having to concentrate on what I write, there was more tonic than I thought.

Stena joining as an equity partner looking more likely in my head than I thought it was previously.
Might just be that last bit of tonic talking.

Fully funded is one thing - someone calculated or speculated £26.5m funding earlier.
Doesn't feel a million miles off.

Drill estimate was 25m 5m contingency would be prudent.

10% dilution via stena offsetting 10m of cost goes a long way towards drill 2.

On that note, no more tonic for me tonight.

Takes "going all in" in a very different direction.

I second those 6 free pints Laallee

Babies babies babies.

IK.
Can't disagree that Star warrants a good portion of praise. I do occasionally find the positivity levels a little high for my balanced view (sorry Star), I love your content and the way you support with links. First rate poster. But just sometimes, possibly because it catches me when I am in grumpy old fart mode, I read your posts with an "all american action hero" accent.
Nothing against America or American's and I admire the positivity in small doses, but I don't miss long projects with them, they are exhausting.
Sometimes we could all benefit from a grumpy old fart day.
Makes the next day fabuuuuluuuuuus. (Add your own jazz hands to the fabulous)

If you spend to long looking for a life raft you might miss the luxury yacht passing in front of your eyes.

I agree that 4 - 5p is too low.
I want to set a higher bar but will avoid doing so on the BB.
I have seen good rational arguments to support higher prices. Calculations that make sense.
Personally not looking for spud price. I am here because of the geology not the board, nor the marketing team, nor the spin and snake oil spivs.

I like the 3d seismics. I had hope rather than expectations of the board to get us to a drill.

Now one way or the other we will have answers.

Sweepstake.
I hate to disappoint but I am going to aim low 4.2

Now if it lands higher I am a happy bunny.

What i really wanted to put was that we would land bang on Ezekiel 25.17.

In terms of prizes I like the list but whilst we (ok just me) are throwing out bible quotes I think 4th prize is best.

Come fo(u)rth and I shall give you eternal life.
I came fifth and won an IKEA meal voucher.

100% it is going to go up tomorrow.

Caveat, unless it goes down or stays flat.

Lowest value post of the day award competition is on, I think this is a top 10 contender but there is some pretty stiff competition.

Zag - P-I
You are way to nice to Harry, I get it with the ups and downs BPC does but to go on and on and then some more its draining.
Chappy is filtered and hope is others will do the same so he can trot off to the pond where the other pond scum live.

P_I - not being nice, being fair.
I would sooner hold a conversation with a person who has told me his plan is to deceive. That way I know not to trust what he says. That to have a conversation with someone who claims to play straight, earns trust, then deceives regardless.

Shame on you if you claim to be honest whilst planning to deceive. Shame on me if you tell me you are planning to deceive and I follow what you say.

Best way to make money on BPC is to be a salt salesman because the number of posts that should be taken with a large pinch of salt is staggering.

Harry has at least been open and honest in saying he plans to trade the share and will post for or against depending upon his desire at the time.

I don't like what he is doing and how it could influence new readers but he deserves credit for the honesty that he was going to do it.

My only caveat Harry is as you well know you do not want to be all out if the next RNS is the big positive, neither do you want to be all in if the big negative RNS drops.
Traders chance traders choices.

Knowing the history is important before judging the poster.

With BPC if form has any value we will take "2 steps forward and one step back."
Part of that is attributable to CERP acquisition but these things happen "when 2 become 1".
In terms of funding and end results "it's all about the money money money".

I would like to thank miss Abdul, the spice girls and Jesse J for their valued contribution to this post.

Special mention goes out to Dolly Parton who missed the cut with "I will oilwells love you"