Member Info for Private_Investor

You know nothing John Snow.

Couldn't resist, re-watching GOT and that line felt appropriate.
Now it is unclear from my side who on this BB is the John Snow character. I hear all the possibilities in terms of where, when, who, why, what, I read various international news articles. I do not feel I Know Anything.
Am I john Snow???

Bryn, from the bottom of my heart I thank you and yours for the magnificent attitude and fortitude.
How, who, why of this virus are a question for the future right now button down and enjoy the quieter pace of life.
We are living in the history books of the future. Each of us has a part to play, the brave souls facing into it on a daily basis, those working tirelessly in the background to maintain daily essentials can get to those in need, and the army of unpaid volunteers and those playing their part by social distance.
I have used the time doing odd jobs so far but now I am down to unread books (finally starting the Harry Potter box set)

Oh and occasionally drop in here to read posts from the great and the good.

Thank you all for posting.
Stay safe.

You heard it here first!
A blue finish to the week.

Now for my next trick...

I don't doubt his capabilities for one second OTH, I think he is an asset to any business he is involved with. Pleased we have him here.
Just posted as an observation in the absence of an RNS here.

just saw that he has been appointed as Chair of ESL.
with everything going on there and with BPC he is going to be busy.

I have opted for the 'all news is tainted' view.
I get my news fix from the daily mash website now.
I know it is all turd water but at least it makes me chuckle.

oh rocket you have such a cheery disposition. I bet your friend(s) and family are delighted when you show up to a party.

agreed Jim.
Hopeful that BPC are still a big part of that Bahamas future, mindful that there is a risk the government see a different path. Whilst I would like to have seen a statement that the government accept Covid 19 as force majeure, they have bigger issues to deal with right now than appeasing BPC shareholders.

China have been getting back to work for a while now with no reported dramatic new spike in cases, it may be too soon to hope this is the beginning of the end for C-19, but fingers crossed it buys enough time for the science world to do their magic.

I haven't seen a spread that wide since...."insert your own joke reference here"
mine was Mandy, a girl from school.

No you filthy minded old devils, she was a gymnast. I am not making it any better am I.

Why?
Because I am willing it to be so.
I have no additional logic or knowledge that is not public domain.
I am just going for personal positivity.

So there!

Posted too soon.
Everyone knows you fall in to the slots pool loose track of time and emerge penniless 3 days later.

Star, I tried to join your thought experiment but got only as far as the slot machine pool.
The lights, the sounds....needless to say the house won.

not an unexpected turn of events.
At first I was disappointed, however, I think it is a better outcome than taking a risk on drilling given the global position we are in. Minor drill delays once the process starts are costly and our contingency pot is not the deepest.
Drilling through the hurricane season also not a smart move for the same reasons.
So, on reflection targeting October is OK.
What the board do with the time between now and October will be interesting, can they use the time to get a farm in over the line? Can they use the time to negotiate more competitive terms either on drill or finance?

I see the share popping up in the top/bottom 5 movers has had the usual effect.

stay safe

Findme, granted I have not written it well.
It is not intended to be viewed as a negative, more a reason in support for BG partnering BPC if required to ensure the drill goes ahead without further delay.
Having re-read I concede it could (and I feel has) been taken in a manner other than intended. I apologise, I could blame self-isolation but the reality is that it was just not critically re-read before posting.

I am holding back on the positivity regards people returning to work in China.
I would like to see that they can have a period of time in a normal state without a resurfacing of C-19.
For them, and for the rest of the world, it would be a beacon of hope that the isolation measures are helping stem the spread. If that gives the science world a window to find an anti-viral before any future seasonal spikes we should all be thankful.

side topic
this C-19 has shown both how fragile humanity is and how resilient we can be. It has also shown the best and worst of human behaviours.
If anyone would care to join you are all invited for an isolation G+T this evening - there are stories circulating online that the quinine in the tonic is beneficial in holding back the C-19 virus (could just be rubbish linked to Malaria benefits) - I do not know if there is any truth in the benefits against C-19 but there are benefits to socialising - even if it is in isolation (oxymoron of the day).

Stay Safe, Stay Well.

Stock holding and fast fashion risks.

Primark sit on a huge volume of stock, both in store, in the warehouse and shipping orders from the far east.
This is OK when the churn of stock continues at the pace it has for Primark over the years.
The risk has always been 'what happens if they get a season wrong?'
To my mind that was a case of either making a bad buying choice, short summer skirts when the world wants long, neon when the world wants pastel.
I had never considered the risks of a global pandemic hitting so hard.

The impact is likely to be catastrophic for Primark Supply Chain. With stores closed they have no way to sell the stock - without opening up an online sales platform. They will still have committed order volumes for Summer/Autumn/Winter and suppliers will expect to be paid and to have the goods shipped out.
That leaves a cash outflow, it also creates a stock headache and a requirement for additional short/medium term warehouse capacity.
Worst case, they miss out on a full selling season, weather changes and they are sat on a significant volume of 'old' (obsolete) stock that they can either try to mark down/job off/ or hold for 3 seasons and hope fashion has not shifted too far in 10 - 12 months.

I know most of this is priced into the SP but further falls will not surprise me.
Good luck to all of the LTHs and staff.

rigs and isolation.

yonny, you are correct that the rigs in and of themselves would be a good isolation point. It will be the outside world contact points and off rig downtime that brings the risks.
I am another in the camp of BG as partner of last resort for BPC, they can and will if they have to.

If in the doomsday scenario for BPC there was no drill within the timelines (and no extension on that date) the licences go back to BG. They then go through a tender process (12 months from start of process to final rights contract sign off??) the partner will have a similar obligation to drill but will be given a period of grace to review and update seismic data, maybe another 12 - 24 months??
BG could easily find themselves 3 years further down the road before a drill turns. That is before any other geo/political/environmental/POO set backs.
Then there will be the time lag between drill and production, if this new partner is a big player with significant existing reserves where is the pressure to open up then next frontier for production? It is not going to come from increased global demand as we head towards a low carbon world. It can only come from pressure to consume for a value before the value hits zero.
That creates a race to the bottom where price is key - lower cost production environments will be drilled and exhausted before the higher cost options. There is then the risk that the cost to extract exceeds the realisable value and the oil sits in place for as long as it takes for demand to outstrip supply once again.

doom and gloom over.

my hope is still that we get a drill in the ground in the next 3 - 6 months and that we race from the Bahamas being an oil frontier to an oil producing nation as fast as possible. FWIW I do not expect BPC to be the producer, at least not on the first field. I think we will sell out and buy time to explore, drill and possible produce on future areas of interest - backed by cash from the sale of 0.77bn (more would be nice) proven reserves.

* feel

not fell.
last thing we want to do is fall at this late stage.
Freud, get out.

a recommend from me fatal.
i would offer 2 if i could.
one for the content of the post and one for the delivery.
I like it when you play nice.

I think many of us had concerns on the Christie government.

Genuine question, not a dig in any way, just would like your view.
We have been around the houses so many times with people on the 'jam tomorrow' train. In your view does it fell different this time and are you more confident than previously that we will see a drill in the next 12 months?

go on....you know you want to post that pent up super positive mega rampy post that you have been saving in your back pocket all these years....

if we can maintain a steady 6th place on the risers board for a few days I will be happy.
Why 6th?
Because the day trippers populate the top 5 and bottom 5.
Them is clevr intum.

saves doing any actual research or knowing anything about the share you are ramping or trashing.

feels like a "we are ready to go it alone" RNS.
Not my preference but better than a "no drill" scenario.