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Not so long ago talk of $25,000/t might be considered ramping. Not any more.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-01-25/METALS-Tight-supply-pushes-tin-prices-to-highest-since-2014.html#.YA_Lf50Lo60.twitter

"There's a mismatch of supply and demand, a shortfall that will continue," said independent analyst Robin Bhar.

A price of around $25,000 a tonne is needed to incentivise supply to meet demand that will expand to feed industries such as internet infrastructure, consumer electronics, renewable power and electric vehicles, he said.

"I suspect it goes up very quickly, overshoots then consolidates," he said.

A scramble to secure dwindling tin inventories has sent prices soaring in Shanghai, ETFS Tin which tracks the commodity, miners and producers is up a massive 6.8% in London.
It will not surprise if attention turns to ATM in a short while given its huge reserves - lots of room for speculative upside.

The point remains that CPO prices will fluctuate - primary reason behind diversification strategy.
Nick Walker and Arden will look pretty ridiculous ditching their 2021E CPO average price after just two weeks of 2021. Plus what does it matter even if Arden upgrade their target? It's just a theoretical target at the end of the day.

LME cash price quite bullish at $21,806.
https://www.lme.com/Metals/Non-ferrous/Tin#tabIndex=0

Demand for semiconductors likely to sustain high prices for a while. The effect is currently accentuated within the auto industry but it's only a matter of time before consumer electronics and other sectors are hit.
https://www.ft.com/content/7dd2d5d1-6728-460b-a868-0eea92166015

"perhaps there’s a case for having a basket of companies in this space."

The FIVG ETF from Defiance provides that. Up roughly 70% from March lows and IMO signals the direction the industry will chart over the coming years - https://www.defianceetfs.com/FIVG

Great thread BTW, well done and thanks to all contributors.

Doubtful anyone can/will offer it free since the LME charge for it.

The best I have seen is a long term chart in a recent Reuters article by Andy Home where he plots stock levels together with cash v 3 month futures spreads.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-metals-tin-ahome-column/column-tin-on-a-roll-as-new-year-squeeze-grips-london-market-andy-home-idUSKBN29C22P

Similar experience here last month. Ordered small gift on 18-Dec, shipped and delivered 19-Dec!
Shopping experience was totally frictionless. No messing about creating an account, choosing passwords, verifying email address, etc... And in the style of Cheryl Calverley they underpromised on delivery date (said 29th Dec) and over-delivered!

Be careful what you ask for! Arden and St Bride's won't work for free and might prefer shares in lieu...

BTW, Arden's TP is based on a DCF model, the bulk being long term cashflows and the terminal value of the group rather than imminent cashflows. I would be quite surprised if they revised their target so soon unless they have a new long term projection of CPO prices.

"I thought the minimum volume for a SETS order was 75K?"

To clarify, AFAIK the NMS in this stock is 75K and any SETS order that improves the best bid or offer should be at least NMS otherwise one could easily manipulate prices with tiny orders.

One wonders who is behind today's activity... Higher than normal buying volume in the AQSE and small selling on LSE.
Someone managed to trigger an auction by bidding for 399 shares at the offer price. Weird IMO, I thought the minimum volume for a SETS order was 75K?

I didn't get that impression from this podcast.
My understanding is similar to yours, neither the 3rd commodity nor clean energy project will kick off until cashew operations are settled - so some delay. IIRC, commodity 3 is higher priority to clean energy and may kick off H2-21.

The intraday auctions are part and parcel of SETSqx with auctions at 9AM, 11AM and 2PM in addition to the opening and closing auctions.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/trade/equity-trading/trading-services/setsqx-and-seaq?lang=en

I have observed these tiny volume uncrossings with many microcaps, still unsure exactly who participates in them. My best guess so far is that MM/brokers/traders effect these low value trades to influence (manipulate?) technical trading systems... But even that is a stretch considering the relatively low overall trading volumes in these microcap stocks.

So corn futures have rallied massively from the middle of Aug and are still on a big roll gaining over 5% yesterday and over 3% so far today.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CBOT%3AZC1!

This impacts negatively on corn imports into Mozambique especially coupled with a weak metical but positive for local corn prices. I'm not clear whether it is negative or neutral for AGTA - rising prices implies higher costs which might be difficult to pass on in a weak economy like Mozambique's. We should find out more in the coming days when HY21 results are posted - hopefully she will not simply regurgitate the same old data from the FY20 report.

...and the milkman strikes again!

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/DKL/director-shareholding-and-issue-of-equity/14822659

Thanks FK1. I was referring to MM published quotes rather than broker quotes. It seemed WINS is now low enough on inventory to lead the bid.

IMO, at the current stage of development - roughly 18 months into a 5 year plan - anything other than a loss would be remarkable; even a small loss would be outstanding. I would regard a £1m profit super extraordinary rather than modest!

"We really need to broaden out the product range beyond the tokens we have online today"

This is exactly what they are doing - a core leg of their Rebuild Strategy. IMO it is also the reason why they can't immediately be profitable. Product development is costly, only of small number of product ideas go all the way to production and of those not all will be successful. The upfront cost is accounted for in the early years but translates to profits in later years.

For anyone without L2 it's worth adding DKL.GB.PL to your watchlist - it shows DKL quotes on the AQSE. As far as I know it is only WINS quoting on the platform. WINS have spent a long time leading the resistance on the offer and lagging on the bid. They also have the largest official spread at 0.8p.
Anyway, it's interesting to note that today they are finally quoting the best bid @ 5.5p and far away on the offer at 6.3p.

https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=DKL.GB.PL&share=Dekel-Agri-vision-Plc

Well done to the milkman - he clearly is a savvy investor!

It definitely would be nice to see the directors exercise some of their options as they are deeply in the money.
Two thirds of the options are subject to 30 day VWAP conditions; one third requires VWAP at 4p, another third is set at 6p. That said, they have another 9 years till expiry so they might, pardon me, opt to wait...

https://www.investegate.co.uk/dekel-agri-vision--dkl-/rns/grant-of-options/201912020701042415V/

I anticipate 4Q production update (Dec to Feb) will be published in March. If commodity prices remain bullish I think the SP will be trading within the 3p-4p range by then.

I still don't see the need for repricing management's share options but in the end, if it works out fine for them it also works out fine for the rest of us and all will be forgotten!

That said ATM management should care more about PI sentiment because in our current phase of development PI sentiment dictates the SP and the SP dictates the extent of dilution in future equity placings.