RE: CHAR13 Jun 2018 11:06
I think most were expecting a farm out of the Namibian blocks, which would have improved the cash balance and provided a free carry. The Namibian acreage is of fantastic quality, prospect s has prospective resources of 459mmbbls that has had third party validation from Netherland Sewell and Associates. With an asset like this, long terms shareholders expected a farm in partner to come in. I didn't expect a raise just before drilling would start in Morocco, this was a poor decision but like I have said we don't know the details - a farm out deal may have collapsed just prior to the raise.
If the raise was priced at say 20p then I would have had no issues with it at all but the management undersold IMO and sent the wrong message about the value of the assets to the market. If the raise was at 20p as I have suggested then we would be well above 8p now. Maybe the best deal to farm out wasn't good enough for the management, they may have wanted to keep a larger share of equity and potential partners (most likely majors) would have wanted a larger share, in that case I am expecting a great deal now as we are in a position of strength.
I agree that there is a large discrepancy between the value of the assets and the current market cap, prospect s (65% of 459mmbbls) has much greater value to us then rabat deep (10% of 768mmbbls) yet our market cap doesn't reflect this. Using your calculations, pre Rabat our assets excluding cash in the bank were valued at around £45m - £49m yet they are now valued at £8.5m. We didn't even know about the three stacked targets with 911mmbbls prospective resources back in February, where we have 100% ownership.
The chances of farming out the Namibian blocks in the near term are high IMO, then we have the Brazilian blocks where the data room is open and Kenitra where it will open in the next month or so. We attained the licences,, done the studies and interpretation of seismics and incorporated data from third party drilling, had independent assessments done by Netherland Sewell and Associates and now need to recoup our investment and be rewarded with free carries. Part from drilling prospect s, we have no further commitments and the plan now according to Larry is to partner, partner, partner.