The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I'm by no means the best person to answer here but the bore diameter will only be 10cm and will be caked in mud. DM has said that they'll try a flow test but because it's quite far down and there'll be plenty of blockages, it'll be quite difficult and not very meaningful to some degree. Thus the appraisal process will involve drilling a larger hole and conducting a full flow test to obviously understand how much gas can be harvested per day as well as the precise purity, as previous means of acquiring helium purity, whether it be at the surface or in the mud, isn't conducted at the source and so I assume can have impurities/pollutants that'll skew the results. The current drill is just understanding if there is helium there, at what levels and I think whether it's sealed and not escaping along the fault lines
Must admit, I was a bit disappointed with them saying 2 weeks. Yes, I know it's not a long time but when you get told a rough date you get all hyped about it it's a bit of a bummer when it doesn't come through. But I've had a bit more a look now and bigbench is right, it is about a week behind looking at the graph so fingers crossed it's any day now and not more like the middle of the month!
Ezhik, how can you be on LSE for this long and still have that kind of mindset lol as mentioned before, you are genuinely dumb. I would like this forum to be a positive place but nah, you are seriously stupid
Look, the argument between TA vs FA will never be over. Personally, TA looks like one big circle jerk and the one time it comes through it's praised as some medium between you and the gods. Forex and crypto, alright maybe, but hardly ever if ever on stocks.. too many variables. FA plus some logical thinking helps explain a lot, you don't need lines on a graph to give you a good idea what's going to happen to the SP before the drill starts turning (essentially, nothing, it's all priced in if it was going to go higher pre-drill it would have already done so). If you think FA is all about looking at the financials, again, you are seriously dumb. We're not talking about the ramblings of a geologist, we're talking about the world's largest helium reserve that's been independently proven by multiple sources and they've also found helium seeping to the ground at 10.6% but hey ho, I guess that was just by chance eh? And I think the fact that the drilling contractor wants half of the payment in shares, the seismic study contractor got paid in shares and the recent round of funding was far over-subscribed adds credence to all of this.
From the sounds of it, you're one of them who arrives late to the party just because you're so negatively-minded that you rather wait for everything to be spelled out for you instead of doing the research yourself and then you're left picking up the scraps
Few points:
- Fully funded for the next 3/4 drills (HE1 originally wanted just 3 drills, each with 3 chances of success, but the drilling contractor, Mitchell Drilling, wanted payment for the 3rd drill as shares and offered a 4th as shares as well whilst also offering a bigger drill at no extra cost; big signs of confidence) as well as the appraisal. After the appraisal they'll have to seek further funding.
- Yes, there won't be any pipelines. The helium will be trucked in standard, ISO containers driving 30 miles to the Tanzam Highway and then on to Dar El Salaam
- P90 of around 30 BCF, P50 of 138 BCF and P10 of 521 BCF but this was before the seismic studying was done and the first site they're drilling, Tai, is bigger than previously thought so add another 5 BCF or so to that. Plus, those estimates were taken with a purity of 4% helium whereas at the surface it's 10.6%
- Completely eco-friendly, no hydrocarbons at all
- 100% owned licences that were renewed I believe back in September
- Strong government and community support
- Great BoD, who have literally said all that they need to do is drill for the stuff
- Far cheaper and quicker drilling and production-setup costs
- A growing market with an assumed far bigger need in the near future (rocket launches need a lot of helium and it seems as though SpaceX will be needing a lot soon!), whilst also having an ever restricted supply (a big He supplier, the BLM facility in Texas, recently went offline and most of the helium produced is done so as a by-product of oil and gas which are obviously are walking to their graves)
But just a few points
If there's few shares at play (which I'm guessing is what is happening for other markets if such a low volume can still influence their price) then it's far easier for the SP to be influenced so it's not a very accurately painted picture
I appreciate what you said Wyn and yeah, that wasn't best example.. Landmark activities like that are normally factored in to the price well before, like it is now, but what I was meaning was more of a curveball like a chart wouldn't have been able to tell you that Scirocco was going to sell off nor would it tell you that, for example, the drill bit is going to break.
So I understand what you're saying, it's just that I've seen a lot of TA analysts who treat it like gospel and that they're some divine being blessing traders with their knowledge when really anything can happen, imo
Must have got distracted before smh... to finish: can also give you a good idea of where the SP will go
Wyn, No it doesn't and I appreciate that, but you do get a lot TA guys (not here) who preach their lines and studying like it's gospel. Saw it a lot on Tradingview, loads of people would come out with loads of different graphs, lines and analysis but only one would be right who would thus then get loads of praise for so precisely predicting the SP when in reality he just so happened to be the guy who pulled the winning ticket. At least, that's my perception of it all.
I appreciate everything you said but I would say TA on stocks is pretty useless, again, purely my opinion and very limited experience. Forex and crypto, sure, but here? Any trends forming don't take in to account the drilling starting - hopefully - next week and the fact that some investors are selling off now to secure a big profit before the real risk comes in to play.
All just my opinion though and I completely respect you using it, use it every means possible to give you an edge and I wish you all the best using it :)
Thanks Bunsa :')
Dai, Yeah, exactly! I know it is guaranteed but I mean... Apart from drilling I don't think there's anything more you could have to confirm that helium is there imho. The potential for this stock from this price point is absolutely incredible and will make a lot of people very wealthy. There have been a few times now in various interviews where DM has implied that all they have to do is drill for the stuff!
I know people have mentioned this in the past and I'm sure it's pretty annoying about now but all I'll say is that this is why you should only use TA as a slight backup to give you an idea about what could happen. But then again, fundamental analysis and understanding of market movements (people selling off now for a tidy profit before the drilling stats in case it fails and the SP drops, for example)
To add to Dai, from a more personal opinion I think the chances are very high. Lorna Blaisse, HE1's new geologist, literally said "we know the helium is there, we just need to drill for it" and DM (David Minchin, CEO) has said basically implied the exact same and when asked (paraphrasing) "if the drills at the various sites at Rukwa don't show any positive helium results, what's the plan after that?" to which David replied, again paraphrasing "yeah, not finding helium at Rukwa isn't really a worry for us". DM even showed the raw seismic results in a recent presentation and was talking about how good the trapping structure is below: https://youtu.be/A4zVkhSXlNw?t=2090 the entire video is really informative, but that part is when he talks about how well it's trapped
I think also the fact that Mitchell Drilling who is the contractor for the drilling has taken payment for the 3rd drills in shares, offered a 4th for shares as well and also brought in a much bigger drill rig at no extra cost and the fact that the company who conducted the seismic study also took payment in shares speaks volumes
Although I trust obstando, I'm quite surprised they're not concreting it. The drill rig must be at least 10 - 15 tonnes which would surely sink in the gravel which I would've thought wouldn't be great for the drilling, especially when the sinking will be compounded by the vibrations. But, this is a thoroughly tried and tested process so they know exactly what they're doing. Just surprised that's all :)
This image from Helium One website gives most/all uses for helium:
http://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/heliumuses.png
True, GGGT, it's still some way off! But I believe fusion reactors do/will consume a lot of helium since the reactors use strong magnets to suspend the plasma in mid air to help prevent damage to the surrounding areas due to the immense heat (one of the main issues at the minute which us Brits have just recently found a partial solution to) and these magnets, like with MRI scanners, I'm sure would need helium to cool them enough to make them maintain their superconducting properties. Just another scenario where helium will be used and yet again, it's in a environmentally friendly way!
Wow, that's great! I could only dream of having so many shares with my meagre 69,000 or so. Looks like there'll a new millionaire in a few months then :) Best of luck, I do hope this all goes well so we all have a very nice payday!
You're not a car salesman are you by trade by any chance? ;) Only joking, I do love the positive, informative posts you continue to make; I'm sure it provides some quick and concise information to new comers :)