- Fully funded for the next 3/4 drills (HE1 originally wanted just 3 drills, each with 3 chances of success, but the drilling contractor, Mitchell Drilling, wanted payment for the 3rd drill as shares and offered a 4th as shares as well whilst also offering a bigger drill at no extra cost; big signs of confidence) as well as the appraisal. After the appraisal they'll have to seek further funding.
- Yes, there won't be any pipelines. The helium will be trucked in standard, ISO containers driving 30 miles to the Tanzam Highway and then on to Dar El Salaam
- P90 of around 30 BCF, P50 of 138 BCF and P10 of 521 BCF but this was before the seismic studying was done and the first site they're drilling, Tai, is bigger than previously thought so add another 5 BCF or so to that. Plus, those estimates were taken with a purity of 4% helium whereas at the surface it's 10.6%
- Completely eco-friendly, no hydrocarbons at all
- 100% owned licences that were renewed I believe back in September
- Strong government and community support
- Great BoD, who have literally said all that they need to do is drill for the stuff
- Far cheaper and quicker drilling and production-setup costs
- A growing market with an assumed far bigger need in the near future (rocket launches need a lot of helium and it seems as though SpaceX will be needing a lot soon!), whilst also having an ever restricted supply (a big He supplier, the BLM facility in Texas, recently went offline and most of the helium produced is done so as a by-product of oil and gas which are obviously are walking to their graves)
If there's few shares at play (which I'm guessing is what is happening for other markets if such a low volume can still influence their price) then it's far easier for the SP to be influenced so it's not a very accurately painted picture
Tbh Noob, I think 1 BCF is very conservative. The other sites they were planning on drilling were around 5 - 7 BCF so Tai must be around there with a better trapping structure so probably more like $5 - $7 billion from one site!
I appreciate what you said Wyn and yeah, that wasn't best example.. Landmark activities like that are normally factored in to the price well before, like it is now, but what I was meaning was more of a curveball like a chart wouldn't have been able to tell you that Scirocco was going to sell off nor would it tell you that, for example, the drill bit is going to break.
So I understand what you're saying, it's just that I've seen a lot of TA analysts who treat it like gospel and that they're some divine being blessing traders with their knowledge when really anything can happen, imo
Must have got distracted before smh... to finish: can also give you a good idea of where the SP will go
Wyn, No it doesn't and I appreciate that, but you do get a lot TA guys (not here) who preach their lines and studying like it's gospel. Saw it a lot on Tradingview, loads of people would come out with loads of different graphs, lines and analysis but only one would be right who would thus then get loads of praise for so precisely predicting the SP when in reality he just so happened to be the guy who pulled the winning ticket. At least, that's my perception of it all.
I appreciate everything you said but I would say TA on stocks is pretty useless, again, purely my opinion and very limited experience. Forex and crypto, sure, but here? Any trends forming don't take in to account the drilling starting - hopefully - next week and the fact that some investors are selling off now to secure a big profit before the real risk comes in to play.
All just my opinion though and I completely respect you using it, use it every means possible to give you an edge and I wish you all the best using it :)
Dai, Yeah, exactly! I know it is guaranteed but I mean... Apart from drilling I don't think there's anything more you could have to confirm that helium is there imho. The potential for this stock from this price point is absolutely incredible and will make a lot of people very wealthy. There have been a few times now in various interviews where DM has implied that all they have to do is drill for the stuff!
I know people have mentioned this in the past and I'm sure it's pretty annoying about now but all I'll say is that this is why you should only use TA as a slight backup to give you an idea about what could happen. But then again, fundamental analysis and understanding of market movements (people selling off now for a tidy profit before the drilling stats in case it fails and the SP drops, for example)
To add to Dai, from a more personal opinion I think the chances are very high. Lorna Blaisse, HE1's new geologist, literally said "we know the helium is there, we just need to drill for it" and DM (David Minchin, CEO) has said basically implied the exact same and when asked (paraphrasing) "if the drills at the various sites at Rukwa don't show any positive helium results, what's the plan after that?" to which David replied, again paraphrasing "yeah, not finding helium at Rukwa isn't really a worry for us". DM even showed the raw seismic results in a recent presentation and was talking about how good the trapping structure is below: https://youtu.be/A4zVkhSXlNw?t=2090 the entire video is really informative, but that part is when he talks about how well it's trapped
I think also the fact that Mitchell Drilling who is the contractor for the drilling has taken payment for the 3rd drills in shares, offered a 4th for shares as well and also brought in a much bigger drill rig at no extra cost and the fact that the company who conducted the seismic study also took payment in shares speaks volumes
Although I trust obstando, I'm quite surprised they're not concreting it. The drill rig must be at least 10 - 15 tonnes which would surely sink in the gravel which I would've thought wouldn't be great for the drilling, especially when the sinking will be compounded by the vibrations. But, this is a thoroughly tried and tested process so they know exactly what they're doing. Just surprised that's all :)
RE: Growing applications for helium26 May 2021 23:40
True, GGGT, it's still some way off! But I believe fusion reactors do/will consume a lot of helium since the reactors use strong magnets to suspend the plasma in mid air to help prevent damage to the surrounding areas due to the immense heat (one of the main issues at the minute which us Brits have just recently found a partial solution to) and these magnets, like with MRI scanners, I'm sure would need helium to cool them enough to make them maintain their superconducting properties. Just another scenario where helium will be used and yet again, it's in a environmentally friendly way!
RE: Valuation: ~6x upside on an unrisked basis26 May 2021 21:50
Wow, that's great! I could only dream of having so many shares with my meagre 69,000 or so. Looks like there'll a new millionaire in a few months then :) Best of luck, I do hope this all goes well so we all have a very nice payday!
RE: Valuation: ~6x upside on an unrisked basis26 May 2021 21:07
You're not a car salesman are you by trade by any chance? ;) Only joking, I do love the positive, informative posts you continue to make; I'm sure it provides some quick and concise information to new comers :)
Well, technically, he said that "there's plenty of volume and interest on the bulletin boards and Reddit"
Would be quite interesting if DM himself has wandered over here and read some of our posts :) DM, if you're reading, hello good sir! You'll definitely be going on my Christmas card list if this all goes to plan :)