Member Info for ppywgda

Do we think this will move the share price much, or is the good news already mostly priced in?

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1051396/loungers-slated-for-big-profits-hike-tomorrow-1051396.html

Someone popped in a cool half a million today. Nice!

Thanks Alnwick for the book value analysis, very helpful.

If only I could find that £600k I left lying around.

😎

Thanks Alnwick

Re.

"The break up value (after Debt) is 4 times the current market cap."

Could you share your workings pls?

Well we know why....

- Management took on too much debt

- Monarch airlines failed

- Thomas Cook failed

- Covid hit (+bad timing with the ships!)

- Inflation hit the insurance biz, esp motor

- Bad decision with 3 year fixed motor in not having prudent enough assumptions

Did I miss anything?

Investors understandably cut their losses and went elsewhere. This stock has been a dog for so long ... it just looks so AWFUL on paper.

But now it is soooooooo cheap its actually silly.

Yes indeed! And given the average age of a Saga cruiser is more like 75, many of them will still have generous DB pensions from or they will have cashed in their DB pension. Plus they have the triple lock on the state pension. Plus the number of people 75 yrs+ will keep increasing for a while due to the baby boom and improving longevity esp among the affluent. Plus the care home crisis has no end in sight, meaning cruises are a relatively cheap respite care option. Plus inflation is reducing and property prices are likely to rise again in the next few years, and Saga are now selling equity release products!

Https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/cruise-control-sagas-travel-arm-has-exceptional-start-to-year

Some useful info and analysis on their paywalled 'Hidden Winners' site, good for ideas - but the free articles I agree are just clickbait tosh.

@Sprarfucile - but even the maths for that doesn't work... if they were taking £30 as the max, divided by 15 = £2, reduced by 75% gives 50p. So still over a factor of 2 out! Anyway, as long as it's not me just being dim then fine. Poor show from MF!

@Rogue - yes I can see why most people wouldn't touch this with a bargepole at first glance, in particular with the debt situation, the 97% fall from grace and zero dividend. It's amazing anyone has stayed invested this long really. But what an opportunity now!

Https://www.fool.co.uk/2024/06/21/down-75-will-the-saga-share-price-ever-be-loved-again/

Unless I'm very much mistaken, this article is a load of rubbish. "75% down" is way off, its actually about 96% down from its high of £30 (adjusting for the 15 to 1 share consolidation in 2020).

Can anyone confirm my maths?!

Really? Doesn't look like it to me... According to what data?

Hi all, does anyone know when we are likely to get to see the AGM presentation / any other outputs or analysis of the AGM?

Novice question I know, I'm new to this game...

Thanks Roguemale1,

I'm not banking on a dividend this year, although it would be nice. I know the insurance issues are only going to roll off properly next year, so my rampant optimism is on a 3 to 5 year time horizon.

I'm keen to understand more about the goodwill point though, I thought we were out of the woods on that front, given the recent £104m writedown. Am I mistaken?

Yes it is frustrating, but understandable given its multiple woes over the course of the last 7 years, its debt, and its rather nuanced recovery story.

If and when there is some news about the partnership deal, and then eventually a dividend declared, then we'll see some actual momentum. Until then, patience is key!

Nice little buying opportunity for a Friday :)

Has Babu cut his losses on RBG then?

It might still recover, he might be the recovery play master!

Thanks @rupans

Where can I find more info about Mr Babu? Is he the MD at Euro Emirates Group?

The insurance biz is set to recover, but it will take a couple more years. As the 3-year fixed motor insurance policies run off it should come back to profitability.