Member Info for Positivevibes

*Objective, Unemotional Analysis & Why I Will Be Topping Up Hard*

Firstly lets get all the emotional stuff out of the way, as it's totally useless in making objective investment decisions.

People may not like the Placing price / the fact that there's a Placing at all / Mike Buck's apparent duplicity etc

Great, get if off your chests, sell out if you want & let's look at the investment and why the Placing was needed NOW.

- We all want the LP to be issued asap but timeframes aren't exact for that. I'm confident it WILL be issued and certain factors give me no concerns at all on that front. Others are free to their own concerns of course but for me its issuance if not specific timing, is a given.

The additional funding required now is obvious when reading into the details provided.

- The GoM is issuing 14 new licences that MATD will be looking at with the associated bidding / PSC costs.

Imporyantly, I don't think they would be doing that without DQE on board and looking at the relevant statement, the deal seems to be structured and awaiting the final agreement by DQE themselves (Dec 5th update). I think that's a given now with the rapid expansion land grab for licences.

- The new JV company setup with Woolfson would necessitate a capital inflow but at the same time, provide diversification & entry into a potentially massive energy sector. The economic viability for profitability would have been looked into by specialists in the space and beyond 'chat board experts'.

Velociraptor drilling which although technically a Wildcat is as MB stated "a wildcat with better than wildcat probability chance of success" - it's part of a known oil bearing formation.

We have the talk of MB misleading investors with talk of a comfortable cash position and all the rest. Well the hard reality is that the 3 month issuance period is more flexible than anyone would like and certainty in operations is key at this point, hence the fundraise to progress the other initiatives.

I'm really not bothered too much about the price. I expect any share price drop will be very transient & be heavily bought into.

We have the pre AGM update coming up outlining a highly aggressive & exciting growth strategy for the company as well as feeding into the official DQE deal, near term Velociraptor drill & eventually dare I say it the LP

How long do we really think the SP hangs around any depressed level from the fundraise from that perspective?

Personally I'm really pleased about the company strategy going forward and especially the cost mitigation & accelerated growth component that DQE would provide.

The actual funding itswlf is relatively limited from the context of growth opportunity provided and whether or not MB is a 'greedy so & so' or whatever else doesnt register on my radar.

I look at investments in a cold, non emotional way and will personally be taking the opportunity to stack my own holding of MATD stock as much as possible b

Many of us are comfortably holding and not really that concerned about daily price moves.

News could come any day now and likely will.

The Land Permit is obviously the big one. Both MB and the Ambassador have confirmed the GoM are on board and want to get it done.

The Mining Minister has confirmed the same and Jimi's news link yesterday emphasises that, threatening legal action for anyone obstructing such processes.

The GoM have put in place a framework where dissent or interference by parties such as the eco protestor, will be clamped down on.

Remember, we have the proven oil asset which mitigates risk going forward and with its inherent massive impact on the SP once released.

Talk of a Placing to fully develop the multiple wells on Heron and as an impediment to investing at this stage is naive.

Quite apart from the very real likelihood of DQE partnering the LP would massively & immediately re-rate the SP.

The company commences its move into a revenue generation stage so forget any mkt cap / SP even close to the current.

As it is MATD are fully funded for near term operational activities and a very comfortable cash position covering working capital requirements.

Beyond the LP we have the fully funded fully permitted Velociraptor drill fast approaching which should focus shareholder interest & SP buoyancy.

Apart from all that we have the current round of highly prospective licences to be announced imminently and regardless of the GoM specific date for that having slipped. I dont think a week or two in GoM scheduling is a big deal. It's just the way it is.

The few riff raff who operate on these BBs isnt surprising. They're usually ill informed individuals relying o personal attacks and meaningless one liners.

I prefer to focus on the multiple news releases we can expect & the solid asset we have mitigating any risk.

The phenomenal upside is worth any wait now & why I dont feel any need to post.

Only a foool would be out of MATD at this highly important moment imho but many of the nay sayers know that and have their own agendas I'm sure ;)

Land Permit, Velociraptor, DQE, New Licenses & Fully Funded etc just as the header states

https://twitter.com/Michael33941280/status/1615611087902380034?t=60pPXqSrNdoczNKG1d-DNQ&s=35

There's no shortage of demand for customers to take the product between giga factories, automotible makers and OEMs - within the UK and to the EU from the wilton international freeport

And 3.8bn funding a huge amount to try sucure

---

But speaking to Paul, £248million is being notiated with more than one party - for a green project like this in green transition less than 6 months after the UK release its critical mineral strategy

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-critical-mineral-strategy/resilience-for-the-future-the-uks-critical-minerals-strategy

And the tweet from the benchmark minerals CEO speaking about the UK needing atleast 2 more as well as britishvolt ( who are now canceled ) speaks volumes

https://twitter.com/sdmoores/status/1612793775172067328?t=cjWaxaStAgZOPl4f4m4ZVA&s=19

It's urgently needed - its definitely good news ALK while funding negotiations specifically not with the government

https://twitter.com/sdmoores/status/1612794679145250818?t=8OCmbH-MVFzkAJxTZb5QSQ&s=19

https://twitter.com/sdmoores/status/1612795255631351808?t=68J_4_7euivxZpwzGotetA&s=19

https://twitter.com/sdmoores/status/1612793775172067328?t=OYk4KipDwaIiW_pRd0DZjQ&s=08

Pretty crasy were still only a 20ish mil mcap

What will we be worth after £248million funding late Q1

Funded with an offtake shortly before or after funding?

When producing 600mil revenues per annum from late 2024?

And when producing 1.2 - 2.4 bn revenues per annum

ALK will be higher year on year and is currently prices like a small company - but a huge company is being built

https://twitter.com/AlkemyCapital/status/1603670569139986433?t=Rhs6VPC2qK29SZcOVr4OKg&s=19

https://youtu.be/MR6GYC3lYhA "Spodumene - Mica - Brines - and recycled battery materials"

https://twitter.com/AlkemyCapital/status/1602197811373670401?t=KpIgEYZegCw7U8j8zxF-Xg&s=19

with better than wildcat COS", having an already established working petroleum system, mitigating some risk.

What really attracts me to the MATD investment case, is the broad risk profile with that Exploratory component offset by the Production component of Heron, further amplified by the major low cost / offtake based scalability DQE offer and additional Exploration / Appraisal upside of the huge multibillion barrel Tosun Uul basin.

MATD is perfectly positioned as it makes that fundamental transition from Explorer to Producer, with a fast track growth strategy already built in going forward.

I'm going to post somewhat infrequently henceforth, as the investment case speaks for itself for those willing to assess it independently (which I hope everyone does).

It's essentially a Win/Winfor shareholders going forward IMO, hence the bullish sentiment attached to the stock and price progression expected, as stated in the header.

It was certainly worth the wait and should play out very well for shareholders going forward, as newer buyers come in strengthening the platform for future rises and as we start to move into a very condensed Newsflow period.

Also good to see a lot of the previous bears on board now, as part of the wider concensus recognizing the shift in operational diversity / outlook that the investment now presents and the major ROI we can reasonably expect, holding MATD stock.

Regards.

I hope everyone had a great Xmas and that we can look forward to a prosperous new year.

Regarding that latter sentiment and feeding into the MATD investment -

There looks to be an immanant price breakout, very closely following the previous one from sub 3p to 9p and prior to that the further run to 33p.

There's no major resistance level between 9p to 33p, which incidentally is very close to the 29p RENAV calculation at the discounted $60bbl oil price.

Somewhat more shares in issue but very significantly more operationally advanced now and with full funding in place, as opposed to the lack of on the more recent run to 9p.

This moves very aggresively and I expect the same building now, as we move into a heavy Newsflow period.

Points to consider / Newsflow due

1) Well Funded - Over $6M in the bank and well covered for operations. Mike Buck stated that Petro Matad is in a "very strong cash position", when directly asked about any possibility of a raise.

2) Land Access - Special Designation should be fixed by the end of Jan, as confirmed by the Minister of Mines in Oct, hence ANYTIME within the next approx 4 weeks (refer to Mike Buck's recent presentation).

Previous delays due to the Govt looking to resolve the issue at local level and in line with new legislation introduced in 2017. Now moved away from that and involving themselves directly, hence the Mining Minister's comments. Mike Buck & the team are in direct contact with relevant parties and expect it to be "any day now."

3) Timeframe for Heron - Chinese workers back from holidays in March/ April but many will be staying the Winter in Mongolia, so a good chance to get the Heron Workover commenced as soon as the Special Designation comes through.

Velociraptor - potentially "transformational" for the company AND country. $1.5-2M, high impact / low cost well. All permits & equipment IN PLACE & FULLY FUNDED, ready to drill in Q1 2023.

4) Contracts with drilling contractors on very favourable terms to Petro Matad, as per the presentation.

5) Renewables - Advanced stage discussions for an advantageous JV deal, with talks expected to be concluded very shortly. We had a visit from the World Bank representative, focused on supporting the Renewable sector and its proliferation in Mongolia.

6) DQE deal well advanced and highly advantageous for major scaling up and realization of Petro Matad's potential, with massive shareholder value by extension. I suspect that's already a done deal subject to official confirmation on the LP issuance (refer to DQE stated strategic aims, existent working relationship with Petro Matad and ongoing discussions with PetroM, linked with MBs comments on partnership).

Although we expect the Special Designation Land Permit to be issued any day, the potentially massive Velociraptor drill scheduled for Q1, should act as a very potent focus for investor interest going forward.

In MBs words, "a wildcat drill

Good points to consider and we'll get the Financing RNS when that deals concluded over the coming months but what I did find reassuring from Wiseinvestor's recent convo with the CEO, was the emphasis on the Venture Debt component payable from revenues.

Getting the Financing package secured will be a major catalyst in itself but said package weighted with venture debt component, as indicated us being sought, would be significantly more advantageous for the shareholders and the boards circa 50% holding.

From the current £20mil mcap, considering were going to be the largest lithium refineryin Europe, is disconnected from the numbers and facts for now - £248million funding and 71bn revenues - and with the land and license sucure for the life of the project, there's alot to look forward to here as financing and offtakes are concluded in early 2023 with the overall consensus being a significantly higher mkt cap going forward

Regards

The 1M Buy (intraday price spike upward at the time & top intraday price paid) was a confident trade, reflective of the very strong investment case that MATD presents.

I wont say anything more about it specifically as it's the underpinnings/ analysis of the investment case itself thats more important.

What it does bring into focus is the header re: increasing liquidity in the stock, as (overall) trading volumes increase and with that trend only expected to continue & pick up pace, with upcoming Q1 2023 Operations & Newsflow.

I bought some more stock yesterday and the day before but that's my own personal trading decision and shouldn't directly influence anyone else.

However its reflective of those upcoming developments for the company and also the increasing liquidity which we should see, as trading volumes further increase and with an expected associated impact upwards on the share price.

Yesterday was a choppy day on the market for most stocks and with some pre Xmas profit taking factoring in. No discernable Santa rally yet across the wider market.

However Jimi's post yesterday fully backed up the sentiments communicated by MB from the Mining Minister, regarding the LP for Heron and I'm confident we'll get it within the timeframe he stated ie within January 2023 (refer to MBs statement in the presentation).

Apart from that, we have the potentially massive Velociraptor Operations ready to go for Q1 2023, which again feeds into the header and the major increase in trading Volume / Interest for MATD stock.

Some of us are positioning early with increased holding levels for a very exciting Q1 2023 coming up.

On a seperate note, wishing all MATD holders a very merry Xmas & a really prosperous New Year

Great posts Patch and a well thought out look at competitive valuations, assessing the various similarities & differences between the sample peer group comparisons.

I think a key component, which you quite rightly highlight in Peer Comparison 1, is the differentiation of Alkemy as a 'Chemical company' being the largest lithium refinery in Europe as opposed to a 'Miner'.

This enables a lower Capex, fast track participation into a key strategic/ growth sector, in all play and enabling the more shorter timelines for significant shareholder value appreciation.

The consistent theme across all comparisons isn't only about said value appreciation but the magnitudes of how much.

Now compare that to the vast majority of Aim investment prospects out there.

With licence and this weeks lease now secured and in place - its a matter of short time until funding/offtake and the refinery starts to be built on said land.

Regards

Good find there Jimi and especially that critical last paragraph, which is consistent with what we've been told by MB.

Previously the direction was to 'solve disputes at the local level' and with the 2017 law change.

We now have the shift towards direct Govt. intervention, which underpins the Mining Minister's statement re: getting our LP within a time period effectively BEFORE the end of Jan and the Deputy Prime Minister's statement of a couple of days ago re: the fuel shortfall situation being 'much, much better in 2023'.

The header in the 06:57 post is consistent with how I see the price trajectory here.

Regards.

What it seems like to me (and others I'm sure) is a replication of the previous price, which again saw some healthy consolidation here a(very ) rapid push into the 5-6p region, followed by the next push to 9p.

That was in the space of only a few weeks.

We had no funding then and were still in the midst of Covid issues hence the drop back after the EL issuance.

We now are fully funded, $6M cash in the bank and with most of the equipment for drills already covered.

Velocuraptor exploratory drill permits & equipment in place, with Q1 2023 Operations expected to focus a bullish price trajectory for that alone.

We then have the Heron LP expected in early Jan 2023, as well as the multiple other news pieces, including the advanced partnership discussions with parties prominent in the Renewable energy space, looking to benefit for Petro Matad's in country experience.

What feeds further into the header is the very aggresive buying in the sheet, intraday dip showing an abundance of buyers ready to jump in on any price drop.

That also sees up for a more stable platform for the next price push up.

Regarding the 33p, that aligns broadly with the Progress Renav valuation (at the $66bbl oil price, which we're above now) and the next major technical resistance above the 9p level.

Also due to the price again having pushed from sub 3p to that 33p level previously and in a matter of a few short weeks setting up a historical precedence and technical indication.

Less shares then but more operationally advanced now with full field Heron development likely imo on an accelerated basis with the high impact on timelines / revenue allocation that DQE can provide.

A very bullish outlook for Petro Matas and its shareholders, with O suspect a very short time within the current price range and imminant aggressive breakout on the upside as we prepare to move into 2023 and multiple Newsflow.

Regards

Dozzawba, the FB protester relayed back that she was contacted by someone, claiming to be the wife of Richard, a shareholder in MATD and advisor the Govt.

That doesn't prove anything at all.

We know bribery is rife in Mongolia (and many other nations).

However, we don't know that's the specific issue regarding the LP, even though it may be.

People may agree or disagree with my own assessment of the investment but my reasoning is transparent and can be independently verified accordingly.

I always ask people to do so.

As soon as we start ascribing insider or privileged info to any individual posting, that BB then really does become the 'Wild West' of information dissemination & analysis.

We saw the dangers of that with the previous in country poster, Spanish.

Although I agree with you re: the LP issuance likely in Jan, we'll have to (respectfully) disagree on the issue of posters presuming or claiming to have insider info.

It's makes for a very dangerous environment, where info cant be independently corroborated and leaves the BB open to abuse.

Hope that clarifies my position.

Regards

I was discussing the ALK investment case with a friend of mine, referencing the strong fundamentals linked to the highly fortuitous macro economic underpinnings, against current price moves.

Todays lack of (appreciable) movement isn't a key consideration for me. The long term lease agreement, whilst being of fundamental importance, was somewhat expected by the market.

What's more telling is that after the previous (and justified) rise off the granting of Planning Permission in November, that the stock has retained its price buoyancy and traded horizontally within its channel.

In addition, we've had multiple intraday dips, showing in the charts as long downward wicks, which have been very aggresively bought into.

That suggests a strong underlying demand for the stock and confident buying around current levels.

That's even more telling given the illiquid nature of the stock, with a highly limited free float.

There are confident, dedicated buyers in the market for ALK stock, who are hoovering up on those intra day dips.

We should also acknowledge the current talks re: the financing package for the Lithium refinery, through TVS.

Those talks are likely to be highly advanced and likely reflect on the bullish ness wefexseen from the Company and its Directors.

Given the factors discussed along with a deep dive into the fundamentals, I (reasonably) expect the current trading channel to have an aggressive breakout to the upside at some point and given the profit taking from lower levels has also seen depletion over the weeks subsequent to the rise.

Regards

Dozzawba, my 'narrative' as such is to try and as accurately as possible, assess the investment case that the company presents.

That necessitates reliance on information where accountability is key and which may have legal ramifications attached, if misrepresented or miscommunicated.

All my arguments underpinning a bullish outlook here, have been underpinned by Info that satisfies the above criteria.

Bowley may now be bullish on everything coming together now for Petro Matad and that's great, but I still can't base any of my investment research on his implied or explicitly stated views, regardless of comms purported to be from his wife etc.

I appreciate your input on this BB but hope you respect my own approach, which has a clear provenance to all info & sources.

That's probably the end of my input to this particular thread / discussion topic.

Regards

Bowler, the number of LinkedIn connections you're pushing out there to establish credibility, dont mean much.

Most online scammers would try to establish a plausible presence and you seem no different.

No FB page for a supposed high level Govt consultant but a continuous spamming referring to such connections.

Refer to my previous post and your earlier incarnation, as well as the necessity for regulated / accountable information sources.

That's my last communication with you.

Regatds

Bowley, we had EXACTLY the same narrative from a previous poster, again putting up his so called credentials and suggestions g some form of privileged knowledge.

Anyone can set up a fraudulent identity online, so lets not be naive with suggesting that gives you any credibility.

As Curiouser rightly points out, why would someone supposedly consulting at Govt level, be spamming on a chat board about their credentials & influence!

The previous incarnation of the high level Govt consultant, stated his high level contacts had told him the Exploitation Licence WOULD NOT be given.

It was granted a couple of days later.

That poster was called out, disappeared and you miraculously appeared with the same credentials!!

I have no intention of interacting with you in any way and despite your current view of things moving forward for Petro Matad.

We van deduce that from the available info from regulated & accountable intel.

Regards

So, the REAL Richard Bowley is actually a shareholder in MATD (not surprising given the very strong investment case) and the fake one posting on this BB has been exposed as a fraud, just as the last 'in country expert was.

That one conveniently disappeared as Bowley the BB poster appeared here.

It does look like the FB activist is agitated and with good reason, as we look towards the imminant issuance of the Special Designation LP.

Regards to all & to the genuine Richatd Bowley, fellow shareholder of MATD ;)