Member Info for Porschefund

Urraca - The investor presentation shows the sensitivity to oil price.

https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/01/2022-01-03-Investor-Presentation-FINAL-1.pdf

Major Shareholder list has been updated - Abrdn (Standard Life), TT International,Capital Group, Miton and Ingalls & Snyder all increased their percentage. Hambro took enough shares to keep the same percentage and VR Capital and Cavendish didn’t take any shares.
Someone needs to ask AK for a new calculator as Abrdn shareholding should read 8.99% not 9.97% VR Capital shareholding should read 4.58% not 5.58%

The blueprint/holy grail for generating exceptional O&G business growth would probably be a second phase specialist with a track record of previous success, in the recovery stage of the oil market cycle in a maturing O&G basin, servicing a very high population emerging Nation region where energy demand growth is rising exponentially and routinely generates price premiums to global benchmarks, and where oil majors, NOC's and large independents are starting to disinvest.

Throw in the steroids of the Climate Change lobby pushing Oil Majors and large independents into transitioning into renewables on a totally unprecedented scale together with, a dearth of buyers, never mind professionally well regarded and financially strong buyers that could be seriously considered by the sellers and regulators to safely run the assets, and you have the ingredients for a once in a lifetime relatively low risk investment opportunity with tremendous upside potential.

This highly potent scenario is what is starting to be increasingly seen today....an O&G market where very high quality assets with excellent re-investment potential are now being picked up by recession leaned second phase buyers and, at what would be considered incredibly attractive prices in a $50 oil environment, never mind a $75 oil market.

The second phase sector of the O&G industry is in the early stages of a rising super equinoctial spring tide that will not only lift all boats and make serious money for even the poorest operators but, has the potential to generate extraordinary capital growth for the shareholders of the best operators; some of whom have already secured assets in deals priced at a level that would have been considered completely ridiculous at almost any time in the past 20 years.

I understand from friends employed at a senior level in two oil majors that there is a huge amount of private equity interest/money that's extremely keen to get some of the oil major/large independent disinvestment action but, because of technical/competency/safety factors their interest is mostly not being given serious consideration by the sellers.

Filtered- by entertaining a clown you become part of the circus.

The detail of the $32m Junior Loan Facility borrowed from companies controlled by AK makes interesting reading. AK’s companies have the option of borrowing the money to lend to SAVE from the Dubai based Maddox DMCC. (Maddox will also be the providers of Senior Debt to SAVE)

The securities AK has provided are the SAVE shares already owned by his companies, 11.6m new ordinary shares acquired as part of the Subscription, the Warrants to be issued and a personal guarantee. That’s an impressive commitment and a great motivation to succeed.

The Junior Loan Facility (7 ½ year term from 31st December) matches the 7 year term of the Senior debt (from an assumed date of 30th June). It would be difficult for AK to justify SAVE repaying a loan that he has provided a PG for ahead of other loans, AK could use surplus funds from bonus’s/dividends etc to repay Maddox but that would limit his financial ability to exercise the Warrants, so the commitment looks long term.

What we don’t know is whether Maddox wanted AK’s PG and the Warrants compensate him for the risk and add security as the SP grows or whether AK negotiated the funding of his companies to justify the Warrants. Either way if he delivers on his vision I don’t begrudge him the Warrants for putting everything on the line.

The new presentation is on the SAVE website
https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/12/Restoration-to-AIM-and-major-acquisition-presentation-December-2021.pdf

“CGG has conducted a review of the value of the interests to be acquired in the Doba Oil Project, which has been incorporated in the Chad/Cameroon CPR. The base case NPV10 for Savannah's interest in the Doba Oil Project, based on 2P Reserves, assuming completion of the Exxon Acquisition and the PETRONAS Acquisition, has been assessed at US$484.8 million with (US$245.4 million attributable to the Exxon Acquisition and US$239.4 million attributable to the PETRONAS Acquisition). The base Brent price assumption in the evaluation assumes prices of US$75/bbl, US$70/bbl and US$65/bbl in 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively. Beyond 2024, the price is escalated at 2 per cent. per year.”

“CGG has conducted a review of the value of the interests to be acquired in the Chad-Cameroon ETS, which has been incorporated in the Chad/Cameroon CPR. The base case NPV10 for Savannah's interest in the Chad-Cameroon ETS, assuming completion of the Exxon Acquisition and the PETRONAS Acquisition, has been assessed at US$497.6 million with (US$288.3 million attributable to the Exxon Acquisition and US$209.3 million attributable to the PETRONAS Acquisition).”

A total NPV10 value of $982.4m less $400m debt equates to 35p per share based on a diluted total 1.25bn shares. Add Nigeria at 20p/30p plus Niger, debt refinancing, new customers etc. I am happy with my conservative target of 75p within a months.

That would be a nightmare, however the acquisition of Petronas’s assets in The Republic of South Sudan for that price would be a different matter.
Sorry to be pedantic.

"To my shame, I didn't get as far as reading page 280 of that CPR.. I expect I'm the only one here who didn't and I can only apologise for that "
Duster is still colouring in page 1.
Happy Christmas.

HS - I am also in TXP so I share your disappointment at the markets reaction to this mornings RNA. The biggest difference between TXP and SAVE is the former is currently primarily exploration moving into production next year and SAVE is primarily production having put exploration on hold until next year when it can do so from a position of strength.
I believe SAVE's proven cash flow will be reflected in its MV in 2022 and when TXP starts to monetise its discoveries next year its ability to generate cash will be reflected in its share price.

With the bare bones information we have and a few assumptions I have calculated the NPV10 of the future cash flow as follows:

Chad:
Based on a purchase price $626m, assumed debt $300m on a 25 year term loan at 10% (balance from income since 1/1/21 and equity raise) a 25 year life (per AK) an assumed net back of $35 per barrel, a total interest of 75% of 33.7Kbopd and a 10% annual depletion rate (without Cap-EX) the NPV10 of the future cash flow based on 1.3bn shares and a 50% West Africa discount is 39p per share at $1.30 FX.

Cameroon:
Based on the 2020 cash dividends of $44.6m over the next 25 years the NPV10 of the future cash flow based on 1.3bn shares and a 50% West Africa discount is 12p per share at $1.30 FX.

Nigeria:
Based on FCF of $150m over the next 16 years before debt repayment, $370m 16 year term loan at 10% the NPV10 of the future cash flow based on 1.3bn shares and a 50% West Africa discount is 24p per share at $1.30 FX.

The calculation assumes nil value for Niger, no reduction in Nigeria interest rate and no increases in production, new customers etc.

A total post deal value of 75p is in my opinion a realistic target within a few months of admission. Constructive critique welcome please.

Through the generosity of so many on here and the other board we have just passed £2000 in donations for Muscular Dystrophy UK.. Thank you all so much.

Agadem's story (Part 2)
Whilst all versions of Muscular Dystrophy (MD) are awful diseases, if you’re going to have one, LGMD2L is probably one of the best to have. Strains such as Deuchene MD and Becker MD are far worse than mine and are absolutely evil. Research funding is very poor and I’m passionate about trying to help. After my diagnosis in 2011, I trained for 18 months and rowed the distance of the English Channel. Covering 21 miles (33.7km) on a gym rowing machine in 2 hours 55 minutes I raised £2,200 from my friends and family in Stoke. Although I could not row that distance now, I still religiously row 8km (5 miles) every day to try and look after my upper body strength and cardiovascular system.

Because of the anonymity of these boards, I for one have often wondered what the people behind their pseudonym are like.
The fact that Agadem kept his story quiet until he saw this opportunity to fundraise speaks volumes.
Thanks to all of you who have donated so far and for those who want to donate to thank Zengas, Agadem and others for their contribution to our knowledge.

www.justgiving.com/fundraising/porschefund

Agadem's story. (Part 1)
I’m 57, was born in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire and have lived here all my life. Hard work and sport have been extremely large parts of my life, having been employed for 29 years with BT and self-employed for 12 years. In my spare time I used to love playing football, golf and squash. Although I can’t participate in those sports anymore, I still manage to work out on rowing machines.
As a kid, after my paper round it was always off to the park with my mates to play football, throwing our jumpers down to act as goal posts. I was always the last out, usually being thrown out by the Parkie ringing his bell and closing the gates behind me. During my teens my addiction to football continued and I played in teams with the likes of Robbie Earle who went on to play for Port Vale before moving to Wimbledon and being part of the ‘Crazy Gang’!!!.
In addition to football, I also relished playing squash (probably my favourite and best sport) and golf into my 20’s and 30’s. Being a Staffs 2nd team County squash player was probably my best sporting achievement whilst also being a very keen golfer playing off 13.
During the mid 90’s (when I was in my early 30’s) I noticed the muscles in my legs getting weaker and my standard in all sports began to deteriorate. Very long story short but after my initial visit to the doctors, my blood test levels for Creatine Kinase which should be in the range of 200 – 395 returned at 14,000. I was informed that very serious muscle wasting was taking place but despite endless tests and biopsies, I did not get the diagnosis of Limb Girdle Muscular Dystrophy 2L (LGMD2L) until 2011. The gene which causes the disease, Anactomin 5 was only identified in 2010 and I suspect it was my last muscle biopsy which helped to identify the gene.
Although I’ve always worked, I had to finish playing football and squash around the turn of the century with my last game of golf being in 2005. My walking and balance are now poor and will continue to deteriorate until I become wheelchair bound. Orthotic knee braces are an absolute godsend to help minimise my falls and I also have a mobility scooter which allows me to enjoy my visits to numerous National Trust parks.

Thanks Trek, and thanks to everyone who have so far raised £1300 since yesterday afternoon.

As a reminder this is what I am asking:

As a way of thanking Zengas, Agadem and others who have selflessly contributed to these boards and shared their research I have set up a Just Giving page and asked for donations to a charity nominated by Agadem.

We are at the start of a major re-rate and I believe we all owe a debt of gratitude to those who gave us the confidence to stay the course and for some, seize the opportunity to buy on the dips.

Please consider what it would have cost you in time and/or money to gain the knowledge you now have by reading those posts and dig deep for Muscular Dystrophy UK.

www.justgiving.com/fundraising/porschefund

Thanks in advance

On or around 17th December does not guarantee 7am that day. Just chill.

Agadem- I take my hat off to you for providing us with your uplifting posts whilst suffering with LGMD2L. Thank you.

To everybody that reads this board - This is a very worthy cause and I ask you to consider how much time and/or money you would spend researching the invaluable information posted by Zengas and others on this board please dig deep as a way of saying thank you.

www.justgiving.com/fundraising/porschefund

I am sure we all echo Agadem's and others words of appreciation for the wise words and analysis Zengas has taken the time to share and hopefully we will all benefit from them.
I have a suggestion to show our appreciation if Zengas agrees?
Zengas - if you will nominate a charity I will set up a just-giving page for that charity and those that want to show their appreciation can anonymously donate.

Zinfandel…. Oh dear… filtered.

It is the charge by Vitol Finance BV registered on 9th November that has now been satisfied in full (debt repaid). Leaving the charge by Vitol SA in place. This applies to all four companies referred to in my post on 5th December.