Member Info for Porschefund

Not sure about the accuracy of the 2x cashflow but any recommendation helps to publicise the value here.
https://www.whatinvestment.co.uk/junior-oil-and-gas-shares-to-consider-2620967/
Savannah Energy (AIM: SAVE) has just added significantly to its production in west Africa. This will be result in a 2x cashflow multiple.

A couple of new companies recently formed

Savannah Energy Chad Procurement Ltd
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/14014394

and

Savannah Energy RC Limited
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/14031643

Its all guesswork but perhaps the Chad Procurement company is set up to facilitate the planned well optimisation and Doba infill drilling and RC -with Julian Horn as a Director-stands for Renewables Chad?
AK said in his last interview that he was confident that he will be announcing further renewable deals over the course of the coming months. Maybe a Solar PV Park in Chad?

Interesting article in Petroleum Economist referencing Savannah Energy actively developing projects in Niger.

The country expects to ramp up crude production and exports next year with the completion of its export pipeline via Benin
“When the pipeline is completed by next year, our production will jump to 110,000bl/d. We will still have those 20,000 barrels being refined locally, and we'll have 90,000 barrels going through the pipeline all the way to Benin,” Mahamadou says.

The Niger-Benin pipeline will have a capacity of up to 150,000bl/d, providing room for further production growth as foreign oil companies like AIM-listed Savannah Energy are actively developing projects in the country. Accordingly, the government has even higher output targets, aiming for 200,000bl/d by 2025 or 2026. The nation’s reserves are estimated at c.3.8bn bl.

A significant first step in that goal was reached in late March, when Savannah Energy announced that it would develop a 250MW wind farm in the southern Tahoua Region. The project is sizeable considering the country’s installed generation capacity currently stands at 400MW capacity—180MW of which is imported from Nigeria. There is also a 50MW solar project coming online soon.

https://www.pemedianetwork.com/petroleum-economist/articles/geopolitics/2022/niger-sets-out-upstream-ambitions/?id=

New company formed on 16th March.

What does RN stand for? Renewables Nigeria? We are expecting news on a renewable project soon.

One of the listed Directors is Julian Horn who resides in France, is it the same Julian Horn that runs Julian Horn Consulting from Nimes France? And is/was a Development Director at Lekela Power?

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/13980231

linkedin.com/in/julian-horn-a6584713

https://lekela.com

Good to see the infrastructure continues to be planned around the area SAVE operates. I have no doubt Africa's hydrocarbons will become the focus of the world's attention over the coming years.

https://www.cbn.co.za/news/petrochemicals-oil-gas/multibillion-dollar-pipeline-to-expand-intra-african-gas-trade/

VR Globals remaining holding from todays RNS was 4,909,183. The 909,183 sale at 4.15 just printed confirms to me that they are now completely out.

Thanks Mr.B. The change in terminology is interesting, from “ clearing out a stale bond seller” to “a clearing out of historic bond sellers” and “ buyers were institutions” to “the buyers were high quality institutional players”. The detail adds credibility to Malcy’s understanding.

If only he had added “all’ before historic it would have also answered NicetoMichu’s question on the likelihood of future stale bond sellers as the SP rises :-)

Tweet from Malcy this morning.
I’m just writing up the @Savannah_Energy announcement of a new GSA signed with Central Horizon Gas Co and noted that on Friday there was a huge cross of 51m shares which I understand was clearing out a stale bond seller and buyers were institutions. Good news both ways.

Finncap’s Morning note
New gas sales agreement signed
Savannah Energy’s Nigerian midstream gas business has signed a new gas sales agreement, its third since acquiring Seven Energy. Volumes are modest, but have room to grow and come with zero additional capex requirement, meaning these are high value incremental gas sales. In isolation, this contract adds ~1% to EBITDA in 2022/23, but an increase to our 2022 Brent oil price assumption from US$60 to US$70/bbl drives a more material 12% EBITDA increase, demonstrating Savannah’s newfound oil price leverage since its Chad/Cameroon acquisitions. Our risked NAV and price target rises 2% to 86p – Savannah’s re-rating still has a long way to go

OAW- I don’t think Malcy made it clear but I assumed he was not talking about a production or marginal cost breakeven but was referring to the individual country’s fiscal breakeven that is reliant on a fossil fuel reliant economic model.

Malcolm’s interview with Markus Koch
On Friday's blog Malcy posted a link in which he is interviewed by Markus Koch, he covers many energy topics including the oil and gas markets, the impact of renewables, the impact of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, sleepy Joe's fossil fuel policies, nuclear power, Iran etc.
You have to put up with the constant German translation but its well worth listening to for his opinion on the macro environment.

Thanks Trek
I agree both are good companies. I don't disagree with your SP vision I guess it comes down to timing.

Hi Trek
I followed you into TXP prior to Coho (thanks again) and sold half on the bounce-back after the misunderstood results of the Chinook drill. I then sold another big chunk to buy more SAVE on re-listing. Having seen a 30% return on my NYE top up I am considering selling a chunk of SAVE to top up my TXP holding. Ignoring relative risk (and a very unbalanced portfolio) I would be grateful for your thoughts on whether you see more SP growth in SAVE or TXP in the next twelve months.

SAVE’s growth strategy and the macro environment in which it operates inevitably leads to some of us getting excited about the SP potential.

QD’s post 15th June 2021
With the majors being forced to divest assests under pressure from the Climate Crisis Taliban and the organic green tea swilling ESG, virtue signalling Wokies, is Savannah being transformed into a SPAC hydrocarbon super giant?
The Vitol connection appears to being leveraged to scoop up unloved, grossly undervalued assets.
Zengas has previously predicted 2 pounds, but 10 pounds could easily be achieved if the game plan has shifted.

Quod Erat Demonstrandum not Quiet Desperation.

Komakino- I suspect the post was an assumption based on a misunderstanding that the recent VR Global Notification of Holdings RNS was due to the passing of a threshold by disposal rather than dilution.

*paywall
Note to self - do not use the word fire when writing about O & G companies!

Savannah set for big infill drilling campaign on oil-rich Chad assets
UK independent's chief executive outlines strategy to tap newly acquired assets that will transform company

Does anyone have access behind the firewall please?

From the A.D. - 4.1.10 Prior written approval from the Minister of Petroleum and Energy of the Republic of Chad is required for a transfer of a party’s rights and obligations (including any direct or indirect change of control of a Contractor entity) under the 1988 Convention. The Minister has 60 days following notification to grant or deny consent, following which consent is deemed to have been given. Consent may not be unreasonably withheld.

I can’t recall if AK specified the exact date in his Q&A but I have assumed the 60 days started on 13th December. If so specific or deemed consent should be granted on or before 10th February. A realistic date is probably between the GM and 10th February.

Nametrade-
On the assumption that the anticipated transaction adjustment of $321m has been calculated based on a base case of $60bbl, your calculation is correct. However the $321m is subject to various completion adjustments including the Exxon contingent payment and the $4m per $1 increase/decrease is before Chad oil duties/taxes on the extra $1.

Based on 22500 bopd each $1 increases the revenue in the six months by $4m less the 25% contingent payment to Exxon. As the contingent payment is capped at $80bbl the total contingent payment for six months is capped at circa $10m.

The first contingent payment payable on 1st July does also include Exxon’s capped 25% share above $55bbl for the calendar year 2021, approximately $16m based on $75bbl average for 2021.

Approx. $6.5 bbl above base case will therefore remove the total contingent payment due 1st July, every $1 above that will reduce the final payment by approx.$4m.