Member Info for Porschefund

Sorry SOG, I am in Cornwall that weekend so too far for me to drive, even if I had a porsche!

I notice that today’s RNS and the very similar RNS on 17th May have stopped making any mention of the “in-country approvals” referred to in the 1st February and 28th March RNS”s.

In between the four RNS's the more detailed RNS released on 5th April (but not included on the LSE tab) states “Completion remains subject to satisfaction of certain conditions precedent, principally receipt of written approval for the Proposed Transaction from the Government of South Sudan”

We are assuming that SS Government approval would be the last hurdle but is it possible approval has been granted and we have not been told? The lack of information the NOMAD appears to require publication of since suspension suggests it is possible.

The 17th May 2024 RNS also stipulates that only on receipt of the approval would SAVE progress to finalise an AIM Admission Document to facilitate seeking restoration to trading on AIM.

I recall IR advising RR that the audited figures for PCNL would not be available until the end of Q2 or early Q3. I do not believe that the KPMG signing the Petronas group accounts on 14th March necessarily confirms PCNL figures are finalised.

The PCNL figures to be added to the AD may be the final piece in the jigsaw? Or am I being too optimistic?

SEGSS Limited changed its name to Savannah Energy MD Ltd on 6th June 2024. SEGSS Limited is listed as renewables company in the 2024 AR. We previously guessed that SEGSS stood for Savannah Energy G? South Sudan Ltd, could this indicate that a South Sudan renewables project is advancing in line with the acquisition?

Hopefully we should get some clarity with the promised strategy presentation "We intend to provide more details on the individual projects we are developing within our Renewable Energy Division at a strategy presentation later in 2024"

CYB your comment: Interesting that we have a true-up mechanism with our “principal customer” for FX losses.

On page 166 (b) “Other operating income of US$28.9 million (2022:US$7.8 million) relates to the invoicing of foreign exchange losses incurred on certain customer trade receivables that are settled in a currency other than the invoiced currency and are permitted to be invoiced to the relevant customer.”

This paragraph suggests customers in the plural rather than principal customer. As US$166.9m of revenue relates to two of the Group’s customers can we expect further true-up income in 2024 onwards.

It’s worth analysing the impact of the planned maintenance programme. 2023 gas sales of $202.744m at $4.51Mscfe compared with 2022 gas sales of $181.125m at $4.14 Mscfe indicates an increase in delivered gas of 2.75%. The planned maintenance programme therefore only appears to have impacted on make-up gas. This is confirmed by a reduction in the value of reduced net additional contract liabilities that only increased by $32.334m in 2023 compared with an increase of $92.3m in 2022. The assumed lost production of $60m would not have impacted on profit but, after payment, would have reduced net debt by $60m.

Historically getting paid for make-up gas has been more difficult, this may be part of the reason for the positive effect of the reduction in the Expected Credit Loss (ECL) percentage from 28.18% to 12.66%.

Unless the make-up gas is taken the return to normal production will will only have a positive impact on the 2024 cash flow but the ECL could return to nearer normal levels and impact on the bottom line.

I have just spoken to SAVE they have confirmed that the notice of AGM will be issued today and the AGM will be held on Friday 28th June.

CYB

The AGM will be on Friday 28th June and 21 clear days notice will be given so expect the AGM notice and results on Thursday 6th June. I don't doubt the AGM and results will follow the format you anticipate and I am unsure if it will be worth attending unless an AD is issued before the AGM.

Hopefully this will be resolved soon.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmm3dr2e5lqo.amp

Oil export resumption by the date of the 2024 South Sudan Oil and Power Conference is good timing

https://sudantribune.com/article284900/

To repay this loan South Sudan will need a motivated o&g company to step in to help increase production.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/04/uae-company-agreed-loan-13b-south-sudan-exchange-oil

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/WCAT/statement-re-sudan-and-south-sudan/16422159

Assuming the SS deal completes and there is another significant deal being worked on in the background, could the combined combined Gross assets, Profits and Turnover figures that will be reported in the AD, be used in the Class Tests to avoid another RTO suspension?

Share price growth following deal completion and other delayed/imminent price trigger announcements would hopefully satisfy the Gross Capital/Consideration Tests.

2023 Annual Report released on Thursday 6th June 2024 with 21 clear days notice of the AGM.

Admission document issued Thursday 13th June 2024 incorporating the 31st December 2023 results with 14 days clear notice of an EGM held at the same time as the AGM.

AGM and EGM held 28th June 2024, resolutions passed, accounts filed with Companies House on time and SS acquisition completed on the last day of the South Sudan Oil and Power 2024 conference.

It's possible!

Smeddyo: I for one am very grateful for the time and effort RR puts into contacting IR and summarising the conversations on this board. IR are open to questions from all of us but most do not make that effort.

As your most recent post is little more than a rephrased version of your last post on 8th July 2023 I’ll limit the effort I put into this post by simply repeating Komakino’s reply.

“Smeddyo, nothing IR give out is price sensitive so I'm not sure what advantage you think is being gained over other investors. It can be useful to have them clarify certain things in RNS's or from presentations, and sometimes to confirm published plans are on track etc, so nothing untoward with getting information from them.”

Good to see South Sudan MOP are supportive of at least one small UK based oil company.

Wildcat receives approval from the South Sudan MOP https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/WCAT/wildcat-receives-approval-from-the-south-sudan-mop-wnlxyuy9dykke1z.html

Agreed having only a few II's (amongst other well posted factors) doesn't inspire confidence. The wild fluctuations in SP in the last few years has made this a traders share in the short term. I am of the opinion that the multiple RNS's anticipated this year will provide traction for sustained SP growth.

4p of todays 5p drop is an illusion created by market makers trying to get holders to panic sell this morning by printing an uncrossed trade at 54p after close last night. It worked!

TIL

From the LSE rules for AIM companies link below:

"A reverse takeover is any acquisition or acquisitions in a twelve month period which for an AIM company would exceed 100% in any of the class tests.".

Whilst the Gross Assets test allows a pro-forma (enlarged group) Balance Sheet included in the Admission Document to be used as part of the 100% equation, the Profits and Turnover class tests do not, and the relevant figures in the last published accounts would be used.

It would therefore seem logical that if another acquisition completes ahead of the SS deal the enlarged group would still fail the class tests and suspension would continue.

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/aim-rules-for-companies.pdf

The class tests definitions start on page 19.

The following paragraph does however suggest some flexibility:

"Substitute Tests

In circumstances where the above tests produce anomalous results or where the tests are inappropriate to the sphere of activity of the AIM company, the Exchange may (except in the case of a transaction with a related party), disregard the calculation and substitute other relevant indicators of size, including industry specific tests. Only the Exchange can decide to disregard one or more of the class tests, or substitute another test"

Is “approval of the Government of the Republic of South Sudan” the same as “receipt of in-country approvals”. Has Government approval been granted and we now await other “in-country approvals”?

Perhaps using a SS joint venture deal as a template?