RE: Coronavirus26 Feb 2020 13:19
Kalan- Any reference to the Spanish Flu of 100 years ago is IMO rather alarmist, yes it was the first of the H1N1 virus outbreak but the second H1N1 outbreak named Swine Flu is more representative of its effect in the 21st Century.
There was an article in the FT in on 27th January that looked at the markets reaction to recent epidemics and pandemics, as its subscription access I have copied it below.
Investors are looking back at previous epidemics in an effort to anticipate how badly the coronavirus outbreak could affect already shaky global markets. “It’s important that we don’t panic but really look to history as a guide,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. “At the moment, so little is known that it’s difficult to even pull in experts.” JPMorgan has assessed the market impact of past outbreaks, notably Sars (November 2002 to July 2003), swine flu (March 2009 to August 2010), Ebola (December 2013 to June 2016) and the Zika virus (March 2015 to November 2016). In each of those cases, a sharp initial stock market decline quickly gave way to a recovery. The MSCI China index fell 8.6 per cent on the Sars outbreak but rebounded by more than 30 per cent in the three months after April 2003. Stocks in Hong Kong fell by a fifth, but also sprang back and made significant gains. Similarly, swine flu triggered a 4 per cent drop in the MSCI Mexico index, which then gained more than 25 per cent. “The more equities fell initially, the more they subsequently rebounded,” wrote Mislav Matejka, head of global and European equity strategy at JPMorgan in London. “These episodes did not lead to a prolonged period of selling and were a buying opportunity within weeks.”
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