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In promoting his interview linked on Trust's post, Malcy has just uploaded the following on his blog:

SAVE has recently produced interim results that for the first time show quite how substantial the benefits from the Nigerian businesses acquired through the Seven Energy deal really are. The earnings growth, and more importantly the strong cash generation delivered by the gas businesses, meant that the company was able to reiterate its core FY 2020 total revenues and equally important cost guidance.

The figures showed H1 cash collections in Nigeria of $82.1m compared to $55.3m in H1 2019 from an all-time Nigerian gas production record of 177 MMscfpd in May. It should be borne in mind that SAVE is currently supplying c.10% of the Nigerian power sector with the capability to increase this figure even more in due course.

Indeed in the interview below CEO Andrew Knott explains that the company is focusing on adding additional power station and industrial companies which can be done at very little incremental cost. Add to this the potential for transporting third party gas through the Accugas pipeline which will add ‘considerable cash flows’ and further enhance profitability.

Having seen this first substantial period announced by the company it is clear that despite the time that it took to close, the Seven Energy transaction is already proving to be a genuine gamechanger for Savannah, expect substantial and extensive profits building in this huge market.

Great post Zengas , I agree 100%.

Rule 5d
post any private communication, or part thereof, from any other person, including from a member of the board of directors of a listed company. Such posts cannot be verified as true and could be deemed to be misleading.

LST- Wrong Seven Energy.
OAW- If you check Companies House under Severn Energy International or Exoro Energy International Ltd (the two companies are linked), click on Filing History and scroll down Administrators progress report you will find the paragraph. Its filed as a pdf so I can't add a link.
I recall someone posting a reply from IR regarding this and the reply was dismissive towards the risk as all proper legal procedures had been carried out. If the BOD or EY had any concerns I would have expected some reference in the last AR.

...............I remain adamant that TXP remains a must have stock, my time spent with Paul Baay looking at the Ortoire maps some time ago, including the wells drilled a long time back led me to believe the story and the drill bit has done the rest. My last chat with Paul was also realistic, he knows that it can’t be win well after win well but we already know that there is enough in the area to make proper money for shareholders.

I am in SE Cornwall and I think I can heat Mr and Mrs Photo singing.

Z’s argument in favour of buying cash producing assets at bargain basement prices is compelling except for the uncertainty of the POO. In particular the possible impact of a Biden victory next month.
A return by USA to rejoin the Paris climate deal and his proposal to spend trillions of USD promoting and using green energy would IMO impact on oil demand and consequently price.
Add the possibility of Iran flooding the market with oil if sanctions are lifted and major OPEC-plus countries increasing supply in retaliation there would be massive over supply pressure on oil prices.
Some might argue that at $40 per barrel those risks are already built in but I doubt the BOD or lenders would sanction such an acquisition until that risk has either been eliminated or the POO reflects implementation of the Democrat policies.

Perhaps the risk will evaporate in a few weeks…

NtoM- My post following publication of the 2019 AR was:

“As an accountant I take great comfort that Grant Thornton have signed off on the Expected Credit Loss (calculated in accordance with IFRS 9) of less than 1% of current debts. A very positive sign of their belief in future cash collection.”

This is an excerpt from the interim accounts:

“During the period, there has been an overall improvement in customer cash collections as management have employed stricter credit control procedures. As a result, the basis upon which the expected credit loss was calculated, was re-assessed such that the underlying provision percentages were adjusted and as a result there is no charge for six months ended 30 June 2020. A further assessment will take place during the second half of the year.”

The interim accounts will not be subject to the same audit sign off as the full year accounts but at face value the cash collection and consequent bad debt risk appears to be improving.

I see that as evidence that SAVE have improved the speed of invoice collection, cash collection of $49.3m in July and August is 50% above average invoiced values. If I recall correctly the letter reported on in The Cable, SAVE expressed their thanks for a receipt of $35.8m in that period in settlement of earlier invoices, I would surmise the $49.3m includes that $35.8m.

- before receipt (requested by 14th September) of the overdue US$60m referred to in in the letter reported on in The Cable.

Debt collection under control
"During the period, there has been an overall improvement in customer cash collections as management have employed stricter credit control procedures. As a result, the basis upon which the expected credit loss was calculated, was re-assessed such that the underlying provision percentages were adjusted and as a result there is no charge for six months ended 30 June 2020. "

Agadem- it's possible the results will be released during the day. BMN have just released theirs at 07.36. I have just asked IR for clarification and will post if I get a reply.

Valueseeker- My understanding is its a one month extension for interims and an AIM notification prior to the deadline, so I think it’s odds on for results tomorrow.

I think there is a danger of reading too much into AK’s letter reported in The Cable, IMO the letter is part of the political game that is being played to encourage payment.

The letter reminds the FG that the nuclear option of activating the World Bank PRG is still available but instead firmly demands payment explaining the commercial justification for prioritising payment to SAVE.

The threats of not servicing debts, going concern worries, delayed capital projects and the consequential gas supply disruption , whilst having a basis in fact, are IMO being referenced as negotiating tools to enable the FG to justify paying SAVE ahead of other creditors. You need to play hard when debt collecting at this level.

I have submitted a question for next Monday to establish if a “dedicated payment mechanism” has been agreed to for future debts.

Debt collecting would be considered normal course of business and I think it highly unlikely they would issue an RNS either way, but to add $60m to the current cash balance on a trading update accompanying the half year results would have a very positive impact on the SP.

I am also resisting the wife’s demands I change my name to Porchfund!

Agadem - no apology due. I did the exercise for my own purposes a couple of weeks ago but didn’t post it on here.
Your post prompted to put it on here as others might find it helpful.

Hi Agadem sorry if this looks like I am playing top trumps but I did a similar exercise a couple of weeks ago that adds a bit more detail.

I agree with your sell up target at the end!

SAVE- Anticipated share price movement triggers
0 - 6 Months
Sentiment- Pent-up desire to re-enter on an uptrend.
Bond holder/II seller is cleared
Half year accounts – Due by 30th September latest.
Proof of BOD financial guidance given at AGM.
Proof of cash collections.
Proof of cash position.
Trading update at release date of interims.
Gas offtake per customer to be provided on a quarterly basis.
News that Niger/Benin pipeline construction has recommenced.
Debottleneck Accugas CPF to increase capacity by 10 to 20%, increasing the CPF from 200 mmcf/d to 220-240 mmcf/d
Confirmation that FIPL Afam power plant has commenced gas offtake.
New gas customers signed up either connected to or located in close proximity to the pipeline network, forecast to add $40m FCF/Yr
Increase weighted average gas sales price by selling to new industrial customers.
Acquisition of distressed or unwanted income producing assets
Outline timing and funding plans for first oil and EPS in Niger.
Involvement of SAVE in Nigerian marginal fields decisions.
Government approval of Niger PSC licence extension to 10 years.
Director share buys RNS.

6 – 12 Months
Negotiated replacement Accugas debt with improved interest rate and longer repayment term.
2020 Annual Accounts should show dramatic swing from loss to profit, legacy debt repayment, decreased Expected Credit Loss provisions and reduced make-up gas provisions.
New gas customers signed up either connected to or located in close proximity to the pipeline network
Increase weighted average gas sales price by selling to new industrial customers.
Acquisition of distressed or unwanted income producing assets
Drill and complete new Uquo field gas production well.
Stubb Creek EPS debottlenecked to increase oil production to c 5.0 Kbopd/additional $20m/Yr
First oil/ EPS in Niger- First Oil 1500bopd, EPS 3500bopd total $76m/Yr
First dividend
Share buy back

12 – 18 Months
Resumption of Niger oil exploration in R1 and R3.
New gas customers signed up either connected to or located in close proximity to the pipeline network.
Increase weighted average gas sales price by selling to new industrial customers.
Acquisition of distressed or unwanted income producing assets

18 Months +
Completion of Niger/Benin pipeline
Niger Phase 3 oil production increasing production by 10000 bopd/$150m/Yr
Transport of 3rd party gas through Accugas pipelines
New Accugas CPF facilities to produce 100 mmcf/d each
Oil price rebound in the next 24 months

In AKs CEO review on page 10 of the 2019 AR he states

“our business development efforts are now firmly focused around cash flow generative, and/or near-term cash flow generative assets which significantly enhance our ability to commence the payment of a progressive dividend to our shareholders?”

A progressive dividend policy is defined as one where the dividend is expected to rise at least in line with increases in earnings per share.

Sandwiches- I see your estimate of tax free dividends for those holding the shares in a tax-free wrapper as only start.

"You would have to assume that the unpaid amount of $66mn by Calabar remains unpaid"

An analysis of the 2019 AR proves this must be an incorrect assumption.

Total gross receivables at 31st December from Nigerian Gas customers under the current GSA's in place is $92.1M, deducted from this there is an Expected Credit Loss (provision for bad debts) of $42.2M relating to receivables on acquisition of the Nigerian assets.

The remaining $49.9M (including receivables between October and December 2019) is broken down on page 163 of the accounts. Trade receivables analysed for September and prior amount to c. $4m.

As an accountant I take great comfort that Grant Thornton have signed off on the Expected Credit Loss (calculated in accordance with IFRS 9) of less than 1% of current debts. A very positive sign of their belief in future cash collection.

The link below is to an Investment Thesis posted on Twitter back in April that I re-posted here four months ago. Time has moved on and the expectation of a Farm In now looks a little optimistic but the majority of the remainder of the document is still relevant and is a good research document for any new investors who may be taking an interest following the start of the recent upward price movement.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VXysrhu1OvGcuHJ754gQvpgx1uVxiA9Z/view