Member Info for Poppyseed

....there in plain sight.

"And if the investors are waiting for the proceeds from selling another project or projects, then it could be a long wait, with an uncertain outcome."

But they’re not. We were told on 13 May that the hold up is actually because they are seeking to invest even larger sums in Namibia:

“The Board have now obtained further assurances that the investment of EUR9,130,000 referenced in previous RNS's will proceed in accordance with the agreed documentation. The expectation was that the funds would be received imminently following the completion of the banking due diligence. However, the investment in Kazera represents part of a package of broader investments in Namibia being made by the prospective investor. The size of the overall funding coming into the country has raised the need for visits to the larger projects by the underlying backers to cover in-country compliance….

…..The Board does not expect any issues for the Kazera element…Enquiries undertaken by both the Board and the Company's independent advisers have all indicated that, despite the delays, the investment into the Company is still on track to complete on the terms as agreed in the signed Subscription Agreement between the two companies and previously outlined to the market…no guarantees as to when the investment will complete and when the Company will receive the funds committed…”

So, banking due diligence confirmed as being completed in Apr, signed Subscription Agreement, not merely Heads of Terms, no issues expected for the Kazera element, no mention of “if”, only when and such assuredness has continued in all statements on the subject throughout 2021.

"There may be agreed heads of terms, but not a signed contract, so the investors are not obligated to proceed." Given that we’re told only one of the potential investors will get the nod, it follows that, as you say, neither are obligated.

Nevertheless, both investors have agreed to the terms and these terms have never varied, nor the stated commitment of the investors to complete.

We heard only last month that KZG had been constantly updated by both prospective investors, both remaining confident of being able to make their investments – shortly - at the original investment level (circa 2.7 pence per share). Both are awaiting the conclusion of other transactions and neither is able to control the speed at which these bigger transactions come to conclusion.

“Both…remain focused on completing their side of the existing agreements with the Company. Once these funds are received they will substantially accelerate the development of the Mine and further exploration into both the Tantalum and Lithium deposits…along with a Phase lll Drilling Program to add further to our world class resource.”

“Whilst we remain focused on the accelerated opportunities that an investment of $11million would create, we are conscious that the process has taken longer than anyone had originally contemplated as a result of outside factors. Rather than continue to wait, the Board have elected to move forward, albeit on a smaller scale, with a view to accelerating operations at the Mine once the investments come through and in a manner that is non-dilutive to existing shareholders”

So, “..remain confident they will be able to make their investments shortly”, “once the funds are received”, “once the investments come through”. No suggestion of “if”, only “when”. Noted.

So, other prospective transactions are bigger than the KZG proposition Neither investor struggling to get there financially then? Noted.

So, those previous statements have not come through? Must be wrong, must be liars, why would anyone invest at such a premium?

At IRON, another GC company, they too have waited all of 2021 for a result. First indications of other interest was Dec 20. Then came “Talks at an advanced stage with a major partner seeking to take a strategic equity stake in the Company at a premium to the current share price…material progress on a possible alternative transaction...which we hope to conclude in the coming weeks”. Oh right – weeks -, sounds familiar, when was that - 30 Mar!

Then came “…Whilst progress on the transaction has taken longer than initially expected, positive discussions have continued and the Directors remain optimistic that a deal can soon be concluded.” Oh right, – soon -, sounds familiar, when was that – 1 Jun!

Then came a near 5-month virtual news blackout till 22 Oct – news on a Friday, must be bad, it’s a rule! Heavens above, will you look at that, a major investment at a significant premium! Boom!

Nuff said. The opportunity is

Clearly, they didn't have DBM diamond production years ago, nor a massive JV, just signed, to run the Alexkor processing plant or indeed the vast promise of HMS. Nor the advantage of DJ drilling taking on the front-end costs/risk of upgrading the TVI operations at their own expense in order to get things moving, ahead of the major investment that would clearly speed things up, including further drilling to better define the scale of the tant and lithium resource.

Taking Fortitude's report at face value, I'm sure DE is merely looking ahead to the unfettered promise of the next period and seeing the possibilities of quickly growing income from operations and thinking along the lines that the AGREED investment at 2.7p will be just dandy and will speed up ambitions for sure (likely to happen based on Sep RNS but always sensible to have a Plan B), but that KZG can actually do this without the 300m share dilution it would bring, albeit on a somewhat slower trajectory.

Unlike IRON which, for all its attributes and value on other levels, had an absolute need of getting investment over the line in order to move forward, KZG looks well capable of prospering in due course with or without major investment because of last year's bolt-ons and the rapid progress achieved in trying conditions under the stewardship of new sole-CEO, DE, not forgetting him also recently securing the additional likely-meaningful earnings of the major Alexkor processing JV which is quite apart from the the promise of DBM and WHM.

Obviously, the main difference in the absence of the major funding is pace of growth but I believe this will soon be resolved by one of the two investors getting over the line. Just saying, I do not see the dark storms others are perceiving if, for whatever reason, the funding doesn't come through. Sounds like DE is of a similar mind. The coming period will reveal all.

"...quite clearly insufficient funds too pay him taken shares..." No such thing. As was amply explained in the RNS, this was merely the fulfilment of the arrangement set up in Jun 20 in lieu of salary for the period May to Dec:

"Executive Salary Sacrifice

Kazera Global plc ("Kazera Global", "Kazera" or "the Company"), the AIM quoted investment company, announces that, in lieu of $25,000 of his salary, Chief Executive Officer Larry Johnson has elected to receive a total of 4,000,000 ordinary shares in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") as part of his compensation between the months of May 2020 to December 2020."

Due to be issued at the end of Dec but for whatever reason didn't happen. Now it has. Personally, can't see him dumping knowing what he knows but, in any case, it's hardly a holding that could do much damage, nearly as many were traded on Friday alone.

For me, I note the word "immediately" but from other observations, this event looks to have been planned for over several months but announced only at the appropriate time. I would point to the elevation of Dennis Edmonds from Director to Joint CEO on 3 Jun and the raft of announcements in Sep, covering the handing over of day-to-day operational control to DJ Mining; the finalisation of a medium term offtake agreement with LJ's Chinese tant contacts; the confirmation of economically viable Lithium and Feldspar deposits to be recovered as significant secondary benefits to the same tant production process; the completion of the acquisition of WHM whereas this had been expected to take place only after the HMS Licence was formally approved (hidden message?); and the finalisation of a new JV which effectively takes over the potential massive diamond processing operation of state-owned Alexkor at Muisvlak for at least the next 5 years, promising a near-term 6-fold production increase.

Was there ever a month like that in Kazera's history? So, whatever the actual circumstances or reasons for his departure, I can't escape the feeling of a planned desk-clearing and job done, even though I also feel something arose earlier in the year that led him to leaving KZG rather earlier than he had anticipated. C'est la vie, as they say, anyone who hasn't suffered sudden change in their lives as they get into their 60s must be very lucky!

Well done LJ for all you did for this company which included living on site in Namibia including, no doubt during the unforeseen challenges and restrictions of covid, sorry to see you go and best wishes for the future. Nevertheless, having the excellent Dennis Edmonds already there in post, immediately ready to occupy the full post, is more than any company and its shareholders could have reasonably dreamt of.

Alexkor’s persistent inability to run a proverbial p*** up in a brewery and ongoing poor relationship with the community led to massively unrealised promise, not to mention that KZG must have faced significant obstacles to a smooth processing operation over the last months because Alexkor is effectively bankrupt once again:

https://sa-news.com/soe-alexkor-goes-bankrupt-anc-cannot-even-make-profit-from-diamond-mining-yet-again-the-permanently-disadvantaged-plunder-the-golden-goose-to-death/

Most interesting out of that last article is the weight placed on what a golden goose this area is, if only……..

So now we have Alexkor completely dumped out of any involvement and importantly with a new vigour and commitment because the community is fully onboard and actually running the show on behalf of the JV. In this light, it’s worth revisiting the last RNS and seeing the magnitude of what KZG are about to gain in return for their contribution.

“The Plant which was commissioned in 2013 at an estimated cost of approximately £6m….”…MV5 will also have the right to co-ordinate mining activities in the Southern region of the Alexander Bay mining area…”…Profits from the joint venture will be split between MV5 and Kazera on a 30/70 basis in favour of Kazera…”…Management of the Plant also gives the MV5/Kazera joint venture access to a mining area which contains over 400,000 carats of diamonds...”… The Plant will also provide an established base for the mining of Heavy Mineral Sands…”…operational by 1 October 2021, from which date it will begin generating revenues for the MV5/Kazera joint venture as contractors incur a fee per ton processed…”

A crucial point here is that, at a stroke, KZG has achieved direct management of processing under the leadership of the very capable joint CEO, Dennis Edmonds. In so doing, not only has it released the shackles from the processing of its own stockpile, from which it will now receive the direct income of its own Deep Blue diamond production operation in a reliable and timely fashion, it has added yet another material revenue stream by taking 70% of profits from the fee the JV will charge for processing the massive stockpiles and the ongoing flow of all other contractors in the southern region.

It looks increasingly likely that KZG will not now need a separate processing plant for HMS once the licence is approved. As I recall, this was to have taken 18 months and been funded by a 3rd party who would build and recover costs from a share of HMS processing. I believe also that HMS is pretty much a natural by-product of the diamond processing but a licence to mine diamonds is not a licence to mine HMS so watch this space. I’m sure it will merely be stockpiled again following screening for its diamonds and be immediately available for action, obviously in addition to the planned beach mining by WHM once approved.

One day soon, this dam must burst!

Like so much about the KZG opportunity going forward from here, especially in the light of September’s announcements, the magnitude of the latest diamond processing opportunity news has not been recognised.

For background, it needs to be known that Alexkor, the state-owned long-standing operator of the Alexander Bay mining area has a long-standing history of incompetence and mismanagement, including bankruptcies past and present.

Over the years, they have seemingly always been at odds with the local community whether because of rubbish reparation payments, tales of corruption or the failed promise of income-sharing ventures, a major example being Muisvlak!

Make no mistake, the plant we’re now talking about here is on the scale of a very large mining company (see pics). When the major investment was first made by Alexkor and operations started 7-8 years ago, it heralded great excitement, including in the local community. I can provide a couple of good examples in testament:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6QiKBhgK5s

https://www.pressreader.com/south-africa/sunday-times-1107/20140427/282656095455749

Under new management, with the community working for their direct benefit and freed from Alexkor involvement, that level of excitement is once again merited!

... but I know you're wrong Steven.

Couldn't agree more cminhinnett. At it again this morning it seems so chunky early buy @ 1.25 looking set to show as a sell by the time it's published.

Need to update that old chestnut steven:

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/kennedy_ventures/news/rns/story/xq1yllw

So, for Funky, time was now short
For the big July update he sought
News on a Friday, is distinctly not my way
So to August, to look, do we ought?

There was a young man called Yu
Whose timing was really askew
Except for approval
Of heavy sands wealth removal
So he stuck to Kazera like glue

Meanwhile Funky, the long-term poster
Sensed an update was even closer
He stuffed more in his drawer
Till his fingers were sore
In the hope he could be grandioser!

Haha, very good. I see you've shaped your username along the same lines :-))

Receipt of funding being tied into the licence approval is something I'd previously put forward myself as making sense in regard to the 2.7p level of entry but I've had a big change of mind. I no longer believe that one is directly contingent on the other.

Rather, having given the flow of events since last year further analysis, I think the would-be investor, or one of two investors as it has now become, are content enough to base their valuation mainly on TVI assets and also other growth plans for the Company, some like DBM already on their way and others like the WHM acquisition very likely to be concluded following licence approval and then to fairly quickly become a massively important contributor.

I'm afraid I can't offer any very strong justification or actual evidence for my change of mind, it's just a sense that this view stacks up more closely with the first emergence of news of the investor, then the magnificent resource release including commercially viable lithium and feldspar reserves and from only 30% of the licence, and then the agreement of commercial terms within just a few weeks of that release, at a time when HMS remained in small focus and was in any case, still marooned in covid-lockdown.

As ever, we'll see if my shift in thinking turns out to be correct but, if so, it would certainly put a solid base under the future valuation if, as it were, the investor completed at around 2.7p equivalent with the WHM/HMS deal still outstanding.

That said, it really is hard to see anything but approval for HMS after noting again this week that HMS product is actually an unavoidable by-product of the diamond operation i.e. mined in exactly the same way as already approved beach diamond operations under the Alexkor licence - the slurry will even be sent by pipe to the existing nearby Wet Concentrator Plant (WCP) operated by, guess who, DBM, as part of their existing diamond operations. In the HMS licence submission there is a signed agreement to this effect between the parties.

So what Dennis Edmonds said in an interview some time ago now gels with the written HMS submission and makes perfect sense i.e. that they would already have HMS product stockpiled and ready to go as soon as licence approval would be granted. In other words, they're already mining it because it's part and parcel of the same sands or slurry but they have no licence to trade it - yet!

https://soundcloud.com/zak-mir-32494497/interview-dennis-edmonds-executive-director-kazera-global

Thinking maybe the KZG financial year end on 30 Jun may well see an urgency to get something sorted. No less true in the case of HMS where any further delay in the licence being awarded to beyond 30 Jun will require a further extension of the agreement with Tectonic to acquire WHM.

So, as an optimist, I'm hoping for breaking news before the middle of next week but I easily realise history is not on my side! Just can't help feeling that 2 hats in the ring now should bring a certain competitive edge to events and hopefully therefore a timely conclusion.

Might be worth listening to Dennis Edmonds from shortly after the acquisitions. Clearly his thoughts on the timing of the SA Dept of Mining approval turned out to be too ambitious but that process seems to be fast drawing to conclusion now according to my own observations. Most interesting is that they have already been stockpiling HMS as a natural by product of the diamond operation and the strong suggestion is that this will be ready to go as soon as the licence is approved via a separator plant on site, quite apart from the more industrial plant that will come later and increase production by up to 6-fold when it does:

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/kazera-global/zak-mir-interviews-dennis-edmonds-of-kazera-global/

HMS licence a much bigger deal than many currently give credit for and further progress evident last Friday. Looks like the final sign off by the Heritage and Maritime folk ahead of formal approval by the Department of Mining. Personally can't see any obstacle from the latter given that the area has been a well established mining area for near a century.

https://sahris.sahra.org.za/sites/default/files/casedecisions/DBAR%20Comment%20CaseID%2016453%20.pdf

"....Terms & Conditions:

1. This approval....."

I think for many people, it's the headline prices that puts them off so it has the desired effect for the MMs of dampening buying interest.

What can't speak can't lie though and whereas it was hard to get a quote to sell stock in any size last week, even on RNS day, that is no longer true this PM. Not selling of course, but just got a quote for 750k above the bid. Again, very unusual in this stock get a quote for anything like that sort of volume. Kinda fits with other thoughts....

It is coming, that is for sure but whether the arrival of the next phase is down to a 1 share trade is another matter. I was looking into these things and there's certainly a bit belief that certain small trades are MM signals to each other. For example:

http://www.pennystockdream.com/Market-Maker-Signals
https://falconstocks.com/articles/readingmarketmakers.html

The above links come from the other side of the pond but I'm sure there are similar signals/beliefs here. Taking a look at this was made all the more pertinent because, following the last RNS, there has been some unusual behaviour e.g. concurrent with the RNS last week, the exceptionally wide spread that followed late in the day after a lot of small trades (as also observed and commented upon by jasehem), some grouped at exactly the same time. As I recall, this day also saw several announcements of Price Monitoring Extensions i.e. a temporary stoppage of normal trading to allow an auction.

My overall sense was that MMs didn't know whether to stick or twist and, for me, in current circumstances, such a wide spread has been suggestive of being happy enough to take stock at the bid but not really wanting to encourage buyers. It actually made me wonder about the eventual "loser" of the current financing process.

I mean two parties have been given special insight here and both are indicated as being willing and have signed agreements to pay around 2.7p for quantity. I can't help feeling that if I was the likely loser, or even perhaps if I was the potential winner, I might still want to put an order for size into the market with a view to taking whatever large stake could be assembled at prices up to the agreed 2.7p on the basis of "can't lose" or "win win", depending on the outcome of the financing.

Anyway, all conjecture, I'm doing other research that has turned up others in Africa, closely connected to current goings-on that would be just as likely candidates to have an order "for size" in the market. Meanwhile, apart from todays "1" trade, I would point to others last Thurs PM that also meet the criteria (in the links above) for those that believe in MM messaging - 2 x 100 "I need shares"; 2 x 800 "prepare for an increase in trading volume"; and 1 x 1000 "don't let it run". As for today, 1 x 200 "I need shares badly" and another 2 x 1000 "don't let it run". Reckon that 1000 signal will be out the window if/when news breaks! We'll see!

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/kazera-global/kazera-global-plc-now-two-investors-in-race-to-complete-investment-at-significant-premium-to-stock-price-buy/

Roll up, roll up, Investor A vs Investor B, first one to show the colour of it, wins the prize!

On the subject of why would they pay 2.7p, seems Investor B also has no problem with agreeing that valuation in exchange for a large stake in the future of this company.