Member Info for PopeUrbanII

Thanks, seemed like a bit of a stretch to me but this is not my field so I wanted to ask politely!

Why is this good for FAB? Is FAB involved with the regeneron product or are you just thinking it’s good for general sentiment?

Even crazy Jim is excited

https://apple.news/Acj4RIR1HTVqd-7teILyUiA

That’s a fair point but it’s a very strange time of year to do that

But why bother exercising just to hold? The option gives you the exposure already, you have all the upside without exercising it. Also once you exercise it you have tied up the capital and you have the downside risk (everyone here believes there is much much more upside than downside risk - but It does exist).

You say ‘positioning’ for what exactly? Other than if the option is expiring please could you explain what the economic rationale is for exercising an option just to hold the shares???

I don’t really want to get into a fight or spoil what’s normally a pretty friendly and informative board but think it’s worth explaining my thinking

Cebo - I assume your comment was aimed at me.

I think the exercise of this small number of options is completely neutral. Yes I’m making assumptions that the exercise is to free up cash so I don’t know it for a fact but nothing else makes sense unless the options are about to expire (and the exercise price if any is below the current share price) in which case why is it only 3m? Was there seriously a tranche of options that was only 3m? Unlikely so rule that out

Yes assuming a non zero exercise price it does cost money to exercise them but if you sell straight away you are net positive

If you aren’t going to sell straight away and they aren’t expiring why on earth would you put money in, tying up capital to convert options into shares? There is simply no point, the only difference economically between the share and the options is the right to receive a dividend and there isn’t one right now, or maybe they wanted to convert to equity for the voting rights which the ords have but the options don’t? No I doubt that too

I’m not sure why I bothered commenting in the first place on a non point but the assertion that I haven’t done any research or don’t understand is preposterous!

If there are flaws in my logic I’d love to hear them

If you look at the table on page 34 if this is one of the directors even those with the smallest amounts would have 10m left after this exercise, so this is relatively modest. Whilst we’d all like the board to be all in and never sell, stuff happens in people’s lives if someone needs to get hold of some money for personal reasons it’s not necessarily that they don’t believe or that they want to sell but that at that time they needed cash and that was their best source. If it keeps happening I’d worry

In terms of the larger amounts (other than cash needs) I would t expect them to exercise options until either they are just about to expire, or want to receive a dividend (which is some way off). There is otherwise no point as you get paid in a takeover anyway - frankly I don’t expect to see many of these exercised at all as I just think the company will be bought and that’s when they get paid

Page 34 or the AR shows the directors (not sure about other employees) hold c.95m options. If this is a director exercising 3m is a relatively minor portion of even the smallest directors holdings. Therefore, if it’s a director it looks like one of them is just freeing up cash for personal reasons (tax, flat for one of the kids etc) and is still heavily in here (it’s true that exercising doesn’t mean selling per se but unless they are about to expire - if so why only 3m) there’s no point exercising until you’re about to sell. Whilst I think we would all like there to be inside information preventing a sale right now it may well be that there isn’t (in the strict sense) so it’s hard to rule out the possibility

On the takeover point options are mostly wrapped into the offer itself rather than people needing to go through the bother of exercising first - there are some hoops to jump through but it’s pretty much market practice

Thanks. No two situations are going to be the same but it’s interesting to know what happened elsewhere

Question for those who were in GGP and / or EUA during their spectacular rises - what were the pricing dynamics there? Was it a steady 5-10% a day over a prolonged period or fewer bigger jumps?

https://twitter.com/hum_gold/status/1300723059280748544?s=21

I think that’s a decent summary and I agree with all of your points.

A couple of things to add on governance. The chairman, who is very important especially given the family connections and perceptions that could cause has a decent pedigree, including a FTSE100 SID role, which isn’t always a given on AIM.

I’m really not bothered about his dad being on the board, he knows the market and industry and can clearly add value. It would be helpful though if they could describe which of the other NEDs (esp the chairman) are considered to be independent, it’s pretty basic but should help to give more confidence and help to make it look more like something with a premium listing

To be clear, I understand all the positive arguments and agree with most if not all of them and therefore expect a decent rise here (I have a reasonable sized holding). I was just hoping that someone had had some success doing some proper maths on the story which I have failed to do!

Are you saying £100m market cap before any new money? If there are new shares issued as part of any funding those (plus the new money) would obviously have an impact on the valuation.

Or could this just be done with off-takes and debt? As I said I’m currently a bit blind on the shape funding will take. I think I might take a similar approach as JamesF (albeit with a slightly higher in price at 4p)

What are people’s target prices here? Without any real sense as to what the structure and terms of financing will look like I’m finding it hard to do any useful maths on this.

The economics set out in the DFS suggest that this is so profitable that even a ‘bad’ deal would still leave plenty for shareholders (unlike other opportunities where the IRR is much lower and the whole thing more marginal) so I’m positive here but only based on a subjective rather than scientific analysis

I’ll go 12.5 (unless there’s a bid, 35+ feels recommendable)

Thank you for taking the time to set that out. I was being very lazy using drilling as a cover all term for the works

It’s probably hard to draw real conclusions other than it will likely be several weeks before we do hear anything. I’m quite happy just sitting on this in the meantime, there’s enough excitement on HZM to keep me going at the minute and the general gold environment means I’m quite happy being patient on this

Not directly relevant but may be interesting to some here

https://endpts.com/28-players-are-in-or-about-to-jump-in-to-the-race-to-a-global-multibillion-dollar-market-for-a-covid-19-vaccine-heres-how-they-rank-so-far/

The company tweeted this this morning. I might be being thick but I thought an important part of the theme here is structural undersupply? I can’t believe this is a typo but it doesn’t make sense to me

https://www.woodmac.com/events/nickel-prices-defy-the-fundamentals/

https://www.woodmac.com/events/nickel-prices-defy-the-fundamentals/