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this is a decent summary of when rule 9 whitewashes / waivers
https://burlingtonslegal.com/insight/when-do-you-need-to-make-a-mandatory-offer-under-the-takeover-code/
The credit approval means the material commercial aspects have been agreed, there will be the standard lawyers arguing with lawyers on minor points as the docs are worked through but those are not going to blow this up - this is pretty much done save for two important points
1) completion of the debt will be conditional on the rest of the money being there - I think the equity and off-takes are farily low risk now although we await the terms (I'm pretty optimistic0
2) until the debt docs are signed it's not done - that does mean we are subject to wider market risks - if China does implode over Evergrande or some other exogenous shock hits we may have issues, but if the world blows up we all have bigger issues anyway!
Several months ago JM had said that everything would be announced at the same time so one big financing RNS. To be fair to him it's been very clear from the last few RNSs that that strategy had moved on, I was only expecting the credit approval in the announcement - yes this does mean that financing isn't all done at the end of Q3 but this is a massive step and really pleasing.
I can wait a bit longer for the big rise, I just hope that the reference to 'months' was conservative and he is now trying to make sure that targets are hit rather than being over optimistic on timing as has been the case before. At best though I'd expect 6 weeks for the debt docs to be finalised, hopefully news of offtakes between now and then
Does anyone have any simple maths that show how this can get to £3.50 - I have high hopes but that would be spectacular
....knees and toes?
new presentation just out
http://armadalecapitalplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/acp-presentation-2021-09-05-IT1.pdf
Makes sense, it's not exactly the sort of thing they'd have forgotten!
It does seem to have been very quiet on the PR front
Final results were out in May
Whilst a cornerstone taking c.30% would likely be very positive for pricing and dilution of this raise there is a danger that over the medium- to longer-term it has the effect of holding the share price back. If this is a strategic (i.e. a major miner) it makes it very hard of another party to ever buy the company so we would unlikely ever benefit from significant bid spec in the share price and / or a truly competitive buy-out (which I think is the best exit)
There are loads of ways that this could be cut and they all have their theoretical pros and cons and all we can talk about right now are hypotheticals - in reality if someone offered me the scenario that wasa outlined below I'd bite their arm off but if we don't have one big strategic cornerstone it's not a disaster - Orion at 10p is probably the holy grail as the majors will know that they are a seller at the right price and one day we may get a bidding war
wasa - you're right the shares are fungible (they are the same class - there is only one). However, changing between registers to be able to trade on a different exchange isn't normally straight forward so for retail investors at least there aren't arbitrage opportunities from a practical perspective. I don't know how much easier it is for MMs to do it but suspect it's easier for them than anyone else (please don't anyone read this as being that I think there is any kind of MM conspiracy against them)
This is correct in terms of the mechanics of how you can get an announcement down the wires but given the obligation to not delay the release of price sensitive information it would be an extraordinary decision to embargo an RNS that does contain price sensitive information. If questions are ever asked about a delay between the company being aware of something and its announcement there is probably no greater smoking gun than an announcement that is written and embargoed!! Some people just don't think things through
no one is saying covid is over, just that we have to live with it - can't see how that means a reduction of spend. Clearly Han**** leaving may slow things down in the short term and no company is guaranteed anything (other than existing contracts - unless they are cancellable) but I don't think opening up is the cause of the recent share price performance
My guess is tomorrow fails to excite anyone - seems unlikely that there will be news beforehand, would be a big coincidence to be able to schedule something a few weeks in advance to coincide with news that should be disclosed immediately
Maybe tomorrow is just generic info for new Canadians, which could be helpful but not what impatient people (like me) who have been on for a while are looking for
I remain positive for the medium to long term but expectations for tomorrow are low
I hope I’m wrong!
technically it should be possible to reconcile the reserves and the cash but it would need to go back to the beginning of time and would be pretty meaningless so in practice the answer is absoutely not! It's purely a technical thing and nothing to get worried or excited about it. I've seen people suggest the £39m is x pence per share and whilst yes you can always divide one number by another it doesn't mean that it is meaningful
it may be worth noting that when it comes to the company making distributions - whether that is paying cash dividends or dividends in specie it is capped by the quantum of distributable reserves (now the company is profitable these should increase anyway over time) but they can be created through court processes if necessary
It’s an interesting conclusion that no RNS on a Monday means another wasted week! Maybe something will happen during the week? Or maybe it will be next week, or after. I’m pretty comfortable just waiting until it does
There is no way that a 20m deal can justify a fee that is worth Rothschild getting out of bed for
Agreed! Whilst I’ve given up guessing about the structure I’m pretty certain that even a ‘bad’ deal creates a lot of value for existing shareholders (even if not in the short term then definitely in the medium term and beyond). If not I wouldn’t be here - although I’m as impatient as the next man!
The panel will allow a mandatory rule 9 offer to be waived if whitewashed by a shareholder vote so a cornerstone could take end up at 30% plus if other shareholders vote for it. I don’t see that happening but thought I’d point out that technically it’s possible (if they were to take that route I suspect it would through an underwrite of the whole by the cornerstone with an opportunity for other shareholders to clawback such that they could end up under 30% therefore if they do end up over there is no argument others didn’t have a chance and there’s a vote as well - it would be a bit messy probably needing a prospectus etc so I’m not sure this will happen)
I’ve given up guessing how I think this will ultimately be structured- there are too many permutations
Can anyone remember how many weeks ago CF said 4-6 weeks until something happens? My guess is that timeline starts from Monday?? Overall I’m positive but have come to take these estimates with a pinch of salt