Member Info for PopeUrbanII

I'm happy to be patient on this, although as would everyone I'm sure, prefer some news / visibility of what is going on.

Do any of the larger shareholders have any contact with management? I think on HZM Wasa had the occasional conversation with Simon (CFO), as did I in the early days helped by the fact that I know his brother through work. Obviously nothing material came out of those conversations but sometimes it's just good to here the tone of their voice and gain comfort if management appears comfortable / happy with proceedings

a very quick google search came up with this

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-350?msclkid=d13e8ddbd14711ec80b6df6f863162f6

I'm new to this share so first post on this board. Came across it in this article which is quite interesting. Don't currently own any shares and need to do some work before deciding whether to do so or not but thought I'd share https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/04/the-billionaire-clubs-run-on-cobalt-says-everything-about-our-battery-powered-future

thanks - like many people i think right now the ability of my memory to process anything involving time is basically zero

does anyone know off the top of their head when the lock-in period expires? I'm interested in putting more in here (a complete punt but I like the sound of it). If as CF suggested there is a rise before that and I miss out that's fine, but there's a decent chance any good news takes longer so if I'm buying more I'd rather wait in case there is an exodus

sorry in the time it took me to write that lots of people said the same thing!

this is a terrible idea - fortunately I don't think it is actually possible. If companies could arbitrarily impost an ex post cut off date why would anyone ever buy shares? You have a good feeling about a company and it's prospectus but know there is a chance that even if things work out well in the future you may not be entitled to anything as you unknowingly bought just that bit too late. This would be a disaster for market liquidity and valuations. Also, giving an entitlement to buyers after a dividend is announced means that the value of the dividend can be reflected in the share price so if people want to they can capture most of that value by selling - some might say long-term holders never sell but everyone does at some point and it may be that some people would rather sell the share cum dividend and take a CGT hit rather than have the dividend treated as income (obviously moot if held in a sipp or isa)

this is a decent summary of when rule 9 whitewashes / waivers

https://burlingtonslegal.com/insight/when-do-you-need-to-make-a-mandatory-offer-under-the-takeover-code/

The credit approval means the material commercial aspects have been agreed, there will be the standard lawyers arguing with lawyers on minor points as the docs are worked through but those are not going to blow this up - this is pretty much done save for two important points

1) completion of the debt will be conditional on the rest of the money being there - I think the equity and off-takes are farily low risk now although we await the terms (I'm pretty optimistic0
2) until the debt docs are signed it's not done - that does mean we are subject to wider market risks - if China does implode over Evergrande or some other exogenous shock hits we may have issues, but if the world blows up we all have bigger issues anyway!

Several months ago JM had said that everything would be announced at the same time so one big financing RNS. To be fair to him it's been very clear from the last few RNSs that that strategy had moved on, I was only expecting the credit approval in the announcement - yes this does mean that financing isn't all done at the end of Q3 but this is a massive step and really pleasing.

I can wait a bit longer for the big rise, I just hope that the reference to 'months' was conservative and he is now trying to make sure that targets are hit rather than being over optimistic on timing as has been the case before. At best though I'd expect 6 weeks for the debt docs to be finalised, hopefully news of offtakes between now and then

Does anyone have any simple maths that show how this can get to £3.50 - I have high hopes but that would be spectacular

....knees and toes?

new presentation just out

http://armadalecapitalplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/acp-presentation-2021-09-05-IT1.pdf

Makes sense, it's not exactly the sort of thing they'd have forgotten!

It does seem to have been very quiet on the PR front

Final results were out in May

Whilst a cornerstone taking c.30% would likely be very positive for pricing and dilution of this raise there is a danger that over the medium- to longer-term it has the effect of holding the share price back. If this is a strategic (i.e. a major miner) it makes it very hard of another party to ever buy the company so we would unlikely ever benefit from significant bid spec in the share price and / or a truly competitive buy-out (which I think is the best exit)

There are loads of ways that this could be cut and they all have their theoretical pros and cons and all we can talk about right now are hypotheticals - in reality if someone offered me the scenario that wasa outlined below I'd bite their arm off but if we don't have one big strategic cornerstone it's not a disaster - Orion at 10p is probably the holy grail as the majors will know that they are a seller at the right price and one day we may get a bidding war

wasa - you're right the shares are fungible (they are the same class - there is only one). However, changing between registers to be able to trade on a different exchange isn't normally straight forward so for retail investors at least there aren't arbitrage opportunities from a practical perspective. I don't know how much easier it is for MMs to do it but suspect it's easier for them than anyone else (please don't anyone read this as being that I think there is any kind of MM conspiracy against them)

This is correct in terms of the mechanics of how you can get an announcement down the wires but given the obligation to not delay the release of price sensitive information it would be an extraordinary decision to embargo an RNS that does contain price sensitive information. If questions are ever asked about a delay between the company being aware of something and its announcement there is probably no greater smoking gun than an announcement that is written and embargoed!! Some people just don't think things through

no one is saying covid is over, just that we have to live with it - can't see how that means a reduction of spend. Clearly Han**** leaving may slow things down in the short term and no company is guaranteed anything (other than existing contracts - unless they are cancellable) but I don't think opening up is the cause of the recent share price performance