RE: Disappointing Volumes20 Dec 2017 13:43
Bignose – I take your point on day traders.
However
1) The UK launch was a known event and yet there was no day trading ahead of it, indeed volumes were minuscule in the lead up and months before.
2) Maven disposed of 6.5% 110 million shares in 3 days- so there was huge demand for the stock immediately post the launch to offset any downward pressure on the share price. It appeared to me that the EMA approval being protected was the trigger for an interested party to go into the market and create liquidity for Maven to sell into.
3) I suspect that existing RP shareholders also saw an opportunity to sell into the liquidity as day traders joined the party- after all RP was a legacy mining investment company that was going nowhere.
4) The current low volumes following the EU launch announcement and others may also be a manifestation of reduced liquidity (volumes) due to a large stake already having been built.
5) This is also consistent with large percentage price movements on small volumes (no liquidity) which we have seen, and not typical if day traders.
6) If day traders were heavily involved, I would have expected at least 2 to 3 times yesterday’s volume. They just announced- all set to go for a EU wide launch in a couple of months and receipt of €4 m. That’s the biggest news to hit this company for at least 18 months.
I don’t believe RP knows what might be going on. Fortacin, ‘ if’ you buy into the story makes a very interesting acquisition target on a number of fronts and ‘if’ there is a major undisclosed position, it has very much been acquired on the cheap.
We know Recordati pitched a 10 year projection which was a significant multiple of the €20 m annual sales shown in their own presentations.
So for fun, let’s assume that multiple was 10x giving €200m sales per annum.
The US is say 5x the size of that market or €1 billion.
Halve the US market and ignore all the other global territories and you still have annual sales of €500m in the US alone.
So, do you sit tight on a very cheap stake and wait for the FDA approval?