Member Info for pomander

KB- its not up to RP to do that. Manufacture, marketing, distribution is now all under the sole control of Recordati - they decide when and where announcements are made to fit their own marketing and launch agenda.

Thanks for the sniff - as you have probably noticed I am a world leader in typo's. Amazing what poeple notice - probably a dentist !

Sorry bunion, you have lost me - probably just as well !

Bunion - if only you were correct peak sales of One thousand, one hundred and thirty two billions would be wonderful ! Thousand million is a billion so US$ 1,132 million is correct and as per presentation - http://www.regentpac.com/ICMServlet/download/18-2154-3507/(1F)CompanyOverview-RPGL(October2017)-English.pdf

I don't think the accounting treatment, although compliant, presents the most useful information for investors and is teh best reflection of reality.. I note the valuation report states ''Residual value arising from PSD502 after its market exclusivity, if any, is considered highly uncertain and remote and hence is not included in this appraisal'' The market authorization of PSD502 granted by European Medicines Agency in November 2013, which applied to the European Union region, until 19 November 2023 but that does not mean sales are going to stop immediately post that date. Indeed US exclusivity will now go out 2025 or even later with the delay in the FDA submission. There is also a huge disconnect between the fair market valuation ($216 m) and US $ peak slaes of $1.132 m, without even considering the other markets.

My memory is not what it used to be - period ! I sense your concern about the possible reaction to a siginifcant accounting loss on '''Monday ''''. Again this is down to the delays - writing down the asset with no corresponding income.

Bignose - you are correct in your understanding. The objective being to match the cost the patent over its life to 2023, but that is only one part of the story.

Bignose I think the SP was pretty much flat lining for July at the circa 25 cents level. There was a huge pop immediately post the UK launch as you recall. I don�t see any rise to 40 cents post the July 2016 positive profit alert- it hit 28.5 cents at end of July. If investors/traders did jump on board for a perceived income stream and in ignorance of the profit warning that is not repeating as yet for the EU launch. I still find it very difficult to explain the massive volumes immediately post UK launch- it was clearly a trigger for some investors. Since the spike post UK launch the price decline has been very gradual � looks to me that liquidity for the MM�s might have become an issue. Overall I am not so concerned about the profit warnings; they are very much an accounting exercise and have no impact on cash generation. I think the market will see through this, especially if statements are accompanied with some positive comments/developments. The patent is also currently being written off over its EU Life, it will not cease to be sold post 2023 and the US patent will run for a further 5 years post FDA approval so that may bring down the amortization charge materially. We might even see a revaluation gain.

Bignose My understanding is as follows. The fair value ascribed to Fortacin by RP was GBP �175m or US$ 216 million. The Fortacin patent runs to 19th November, so the period over which the fair value of the Fortacin patent must be amortised over is from 9th March 2016 to 19th November 2023. That is circa 2,779 days. The patent is to written down on a straight line basis so there will no annual reduction in the amortisation charge ie. Not on the reducing balance basis. For 2016 � Fair value US$216 � amortisation US$216 m x 266days/2,779 days = US$ 20.67 million. After some other adjustments for deferred tax the actual amortisation charge was US$ 22.89 million, so pretty close. For 2017 � US$ 216 x 365 days/2,779 days = US$ 28.37 m � which is close to the guidance of US$ 28.05 million in the profit warning The amortisation charge will repeat each full year, and half year until the year end 31/12/2023 in the amount of circa US$ 28 million for full year and US$ 14 m for half year as per 2017 interims, so I agree a further profit warning likely for 2018 interims and possibly full year, but hopefully not. The reason why the profit warning is much higher is because in 2016 there was an off-setting so called �bargain purchase gain�� of $US 31.7 m. That is the difference between the fair value of the Fortacin patent and the market value of the shares issued to acquire the patent which was much lower due mainly to the depreciation in RP shares post the initial offer. Risk Disclaimer- As an ex accountant I am obliged to make the following disclosure - All of the above maybe inaccurate, incorrect and totally unreliable. Placing reliance on any of the above may result in death !

Wonder how many they had to shift?- might be useful mkt research on the price point with no PR campaign

Oh well, what's a couple of days in the life of RP.

Will be interesting to see the market reaction tomorrow as significantly larger than last years profit warning although mechanics are the same. Might just be the buying opprtuity that Bignose is hoping for.

Unbelievable !

How do you believe it is intended that Summit will meet its 45% share of the R&D costs with Sarepta? Surely if a milestone had been triggered, it would have to be announced as it is a price sensitive event.

Are you both suggesting that Market Makers are preventing the share price from breaching 40 cents or as before 25 cents? The only reason I can think of for this, (and I have no idea if it is possible or even legal) is that one of the major HK brokers has placed a large buy order on behalf of a client with a circa 40 cents limit price. If the MM allowed the prise to rise too quickly, breacjhing this level, it might be concerned about sellers emerging and being left with a large position on its books that it cannot hedge with a short position ( which is normal modus operndi) as RP is not a designated stock by HKSE for shorting. From my experince MM's will always try and please the large brokers to secure their future business and often execution is as important as price.

Make that 2 !

Totally agree with that, and if it spikes similar to post UK launch on much lower volumes that will be a good indicator that the reduced liquidity is down to a stakeholder. Either way, stakeholder or o stakeholder, I am expecting some decent SP action in the lead up and on the launch.

Not at all, SP is a function of demand and supply. If Bignose is correct and traders churning the stock, the same should happen. It may not, but I expect a significant SP increase.

Bignose - I agree, that's a good sniff. Whilst I attach a lower probability to a takeover I still believe that a chunk was taken post UK launch. The drug profile would also seem to fit well with a large pharma taking it on in US & Asian markets.

Bunion - if you go back to the 2017 Master Investor show https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCWd3LU-6Lk Mike Wyllie talks about EU sales of �230m to �300 m- with royalties of between 15% & 25% to RP. Leaving plenty of room for error on these figures, RP would appear to be very cheap with a potentially huge dividend yield. US mkt 5x the size and still have ROW. If Fortacin does what it says on the tin, hopefully it will be a very popular product both to meet clinical need and lifestyle choices,. As MW said, not one of the particpants in the trials turned down 9 months free supply of Fortacin !