Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thank goodness my performance doesn't rely on your opinion of me.
So who is the marginal buyer?
I own it too. But the fact that the share price has only fallen and is zzzz on the news makes me think I'm wrong. The ultimate arbiter is price when it comes to profit. Not 'being right' or having a deeper understanding of micro porous rocks or whatever nano level analysis ticks ego intellectual boxes.
If the info is out there and no one is buying on it.. then something is wrong
Great thing about these boards is I can say anything I like, think anything I like without giving a tuppence about the tribal views of a desperately net bullish mob.
If you attack views or questions that you don't like on an emotional basis you will end up self selecting for information and lose.
I hope you find solace together but if you aren't willing to question why you are wrong and what you are missing then you are doomed to trading failure. Beware of Stockhom syndrome.
With the predictions and valuations on this board all at huge multiples to current share price, has anyone wondered, that with the share price not being multiples higher, there is some huge factor they are missing that results in the hundreds of thousands of small investors, the tens of thousands of professional fund managers and the thousands of sharp hedge fund and private equity players globally not agreeing with them?
Perfect! Thank you so much for the detail!
I've just been scanning their website and other reference sites to try to work out how much of the gas recovery would be paid to Predator.
At first glance it doesn't appear to be much at all with the state claiming ownership of all gas and oil finds with only concessions payable.
"The fiscal terms in Morocco are restricted to a 5% State royalty for gas, applicable after the first 10.6 BCF of net production to the operator, and corporation tax charged at 31%. However, there is a 10-year “holiday” before corporation tax will be charged and any unused tax losses can be offset against the tax due. There are no signature bonuses but production bonuses in the form of cash payments exist with a maximum one-off payment of US$5,000,000 on production greater than 30,000 BOE/day. A discovery bonus of US$1,000,000 is also payable."
Has anyone calculated the net wort to Predator rather than the market value of the find?
More on general law here.
https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/w-018-8007
Private equity is all about leverage and payouts.
Debt rather than share price is the game and though the HBR sales pitch to PMO was the resulting debt free nature, I'd wager that debt free nature won't be around for long. Leverage debt, preferably by borrowing at high rates from another interest you have, pay yourself whopping fees, bonuses and salaries, cut costs and investments (that's your profit margin) and do you really care about the 5% of shareholders who weren't 'you' when you merged?
The best performing HBR asset will be debt. As it was with PMO. Share price? Who cares..
Over the past 20 years I have irregularly invested in VRB technology, first off in VRB ltd and then via a couple of other companies. Each time the tech has had hiccups, the management hs been bent, market has preferred Lithium or the renewables hadn't reached critical mass demand for static large scale storage. The idea adn chemistry behind VRBs is superb in theory yet the membranes alway appeared to be the problem.
I have re-entered as this should logically be THE time for VR to take off. However, why Invinity? I read through their most resent investor pack and was very disappointed to see the argument being for VR Batteries in gneral and not one reference a to what I.P. or advantage Invinity holds over all the other companies out there. It waslike finding a Ferrari brochure was simply a presentation on why cars would usurp horses.
So why invinity? It's old tech and unless they show why they have an advantage, a big boy will swamp them.
As for the latest issue. That looked like a joke. 100p and a free 150 and 175 call option whn trading sub 100?
The trade would have been to buy market at the 92-95p it was trading and sell your own 150 call to subsidise your purchase price even further. With so many calls at 150 it would find it petty hard to clear that level if it ever go there. And if it did breach you'd have the stock to cover the short call.
Any ideas on IP?
With thanks
Pol
Opinion. There doesn't appear to be a 'don't hold' choice.
I pop in here now and again to see if there are any new reasons to buy Harbour but it appears to be the usual Stockholm syndrome sufferers citing reams of detail on oil price influencers but deluding that the old Premier or new Harbour, bear any useful correlation to the oil price. The best you can say is the correlation is HBR goes down on falling oil and manages to stay flat on rising oil.
Harbour chews through oil price rises just to keep it alive, let alone grow. Even BP and Shell have a higher beta to rising oil than Harbour.
If you want to make money on a view that oil is going up then buy oil.
If you want to make money on a view that oil is going down, then short Harbour.
Share price may not rise as ESG mob offload but profits will increase so yields will go up if share price is capped. Rising yields will create a spread between esg and sinful investing, a moral yield spread in effect, which widens to a market equilibrium where temptation kicks in.
A good way to see the price of esg morals.
So either share prices rise or yields rise. Win either way.
Thank you. I take your points on the bank holders and low proportion of fund held debt
But the corporate bond funds depend on what the prospectus says. Some can hold equity if from corporate action, some have to sell within a certain time, depending on market conditions, some have to sell immediately. Others can even buy high dividend equity, like preferred stock, or equity that has been structured to look like debt etc. (Not the new Harbour stock). It's a minefield, ucits rules go some way to mitigate this, ie limits on exposure, but you need to take care if you don't want any equity like exposure in a corporate bond fund.
Correct. And the further point is that if the debt is held, as it normally is, in dedicated fixed income, corporate credit or high yield funds the fund will not be mandated to hold equity so HAS to sell. It's not a choice of if they fancy holding the equity or not, they simply cannot.
No surprisee. No incentive to do otherwise. Mexico state hold all the cards. Pemex is a State oil co. They can pay what they want or nationalise zama on a whim. Never easy to do a deal against those who set the law.
Still amazed so many holders of this stock are so in love with their captors. If you want something that goes up with oil prices why the heck are you in Premier when there are so many other stocks out there? It is obvious the correlation broke years ago.
The door to your prison cell is wide open.
If the shares aren't quoted then the new majority shareholders and management control the ability of existing shareholders to get out and at what price. The soon to be majority shareholders could vote to do what they like including a forced buy back of existing shareholders at 0 to whatever price, probably after wriing existing value to zero against legal fees for the RTO, whch appear to be being billed to the tiny party, why? Or they can just dilute existing shareholders to nothing by voting new share issues to all staff and management as 'performance' reward. Or issue huge debt and use it to pay themselves in salary and bonus leaving shareholders as bag holders.
I can see very little purpose in them ever wanting to be a listed company, especially as they are now part of the new Swiss family office.