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"Unfortunately once a share has been delisted it can no longer be held in an ISA. This is because shares have to be listed on a recognised stock exchange in order to be held in an ISA" ISA guidelines.
I have no idea how the mechanics of a delisting is going to work out. Even if they come back listed in a different name again do they magically appear in our ISAs/Sipps in that different name?
I just feel that his is a massive transfer of 'rights' into 'trust' forced by the timing out on the AIM rules.
There is little I can do apart from watch the magician at work, hoping at some stage the trick ends with "… and is THIS your money?" being in back in my pocket rather than theirs.
if you are outperforming the index with a Sharpe ratio of 2 then you are truly gifted.
There is a 50/50 chance a stock will go up or down from its current price relative to its index. if that were not the case the stock market would be a free money machine. So on that basis, yes, on average you only have a 50/50 chance of finding a cheap stock and your gains in finding them will be matched by your losses in misidentifying them. Judging by the performance of Premier, the majority of permabulls on this chat are heroically poor at identifying value.
So they are valuing the newly issued shares at a 71% premium but does that mean they are guaranteeing a bid for existing shareholders to sell into at that price or are existing shareholders going to have to wear the vagaries of getting out in the market once it reopens at whatever price they are then at? That could be a long way down again.
The best indication as to where a share price should be in the future is where it is now. The current price is the discounted weighted average of where everyone thinks it will be in the future.
Now taking that weighting, I can assume that the majority of shares are not owned by posters on this site but by others, probably professional fund managers or those with much larger interests in the company who, no doubt, have their own opinions on future valuations based on their own analytics.
So whilst this board may be convinced the share price should be in the 20s and above, a lot of professionals appear to disagree.
I am now left wondering who is more likely to be right and so who I should be more swayed by. Those always bullish here, or the silent majority of those who don't post here.
Covid is not kind to the demographic that collects stamps. Or is stanley gibbons the vaccine trade?
I find those expressing reasons for falls much more informative than the constant parade of posts using the PMO chat bot algorithm formula of
"Stop talking crap this will be double treble soon
to [insert pricec 9 months earlier]"
Why should anyone care that longs have lost money anymore than longs care when shorts lose money? You don't get sympathy refunds in financial markets unless you plead stupidity and call a misselling ambulance chasing law firm. This isn't a 'long only' chat site, though it does often resemble a retirement home for loss aversion sufferers.
Reading this chat, irregularly, I get the impression that you are all sitting in a cell with the door wide open having succumbed to Stockholm Syndrome.
Hope beyond hope that everything will be OK as the share price has spent the last 6 years decaying.
They say 'how does a bear market end?.. No one is left to find out."
Last one out switch off the lights.
Et viola. Debt being repayed and shares halve.
Glad I bought the debt. Good luck with your share price to £1.
The oil prices you ref are in usd.
The share price is in gbp.
Oil up in usd is not a straight translation to gbp share price and costs when usd is down vs everything.
Thank you for that informed reply.
My point is that there is a blinding risk reward payoff in the bonds vs in the shares. Yet when asked why it's not considered I am told that a) people have made more than 56% trading the shares historically - which has zero value in calculating future risk/payoff, or b) that they are basing it on calls on the oil market which can be much more efficiently expressed via trading oil.
Your point of people liking the company hasn't been previously mentioned but is the most valid point for stock specific buying yet made, but equally justifies buying the bonds.
It sounds as though you are betting on oil going up as your prerequisite for PMO to go up, in which case why not buy oil rather than having to take the correlation risk via PMO? Or if you are after leverage then buy call options. You can buy july wti $35 calls for 50 cents if you are really feeling really bullish. Get to 60 in that time and you've made 50× your money.
I'll stick with a 56% 1yr return whatever oil does as long as Premier doesn't go bust. In effect laying off bankruptcy at a 2/1 bet.
Have any of you considered PMO1? 6.5% May 2021 Premier bond? If you are buying stock as you think Premier is a long-term buy and not going bust then buying one year debt yielding 6.5% at 64p for a redemption of 100 seems a no brainer vs shares.
It's asicallyis a +56% return trade on them not going bust.
Wow they are good.
If you invest in Premier Oil and lose money, especially if you are convinced there are people with more influence over share price than you, then it solely your own fault. No one makes you buy their shares.
Perhaps you should be buying Premeier's debt rather than their shares. You get paid ahead of shares, lovely yield, pays you every year and your portfolio risk is much lower than shares which can see +/-25% swings for zero yield.
I have been a long time user of Premier shares to (hopefully) profit from multidudinous market functions. I enjoy reading here about the hopes of the share price going up on everything from oil price to fine detail on debt repayment and oil finds. I smile at the cognative bias of blaming dark forces for share price movements contrary to personal expectations. I laugh raucously at those bemoaning entities 'manipulating the market for personal gain' when those moaning are hardly in Premier for charitable investment but their own personal gain.
There are some simple rules I apply when trading.
-There is always someone who knows more than you.
- The price reflects all current information. i.e. If the price isn't where you expect it should be it isn't the market that's wrong, it's you, so reassess your beliefs.
- Price isn't set by theoretical value, it is set by a complex overlay of global macro outlook, politics, sector performance, underlying product value, differential performance vs peers, alternative investment yields, management abilities and remuneration, company bond yields, hierarchy of rights and more importantly an expection of all the above.
- Don't look at the spot price of oil, look at the forward curve in oil. Companies never hedge on the spot but the forward.
- Finally, listen to the silence. Most of the chatter in markets is related to what people would like to happen. This implies they are positioned that way. Their next market action will have to be the reverse. What people 'don't' talk about will probably drivethe direction.of next travel.
I'm not going to tell you what I'm going to do or have done in Premier as that is of no value to me. But I can tell you for sure, this chat site is full of sweating the small stuff but really missing the stuff that really moves Premier shares. The macro. If you'd been watching credit markets (you should as Premier is hugely indebted), European growth, US trade talks, and positional flows in equities in general you'd be much more likely to make the 20% swings in PMO rather than sweating Tony Durrant's shoe size.
Oh and finally. Premier has paid its share holders zip for the past few years. The only way a Premier Oil share holder will profit from Premier oil shares is by selling them to someone else who thinks they will be worth more than they paid for them. Recycling,
Cheers