Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Acid test of PRD management bias will be if LB tweets his upset over Mem's departure from here after mem's recent expression of lack of confidence in PRD management, as LB did over Mem's past departure after being supportive.
Hat dof to you MEM for doing what you want when you want. Yes, opinions change and though many say nothing has changed with respect to info, it has with respect to time. PRD has cashburn and licence expiries so time is information and has value. Price as an option with time decay.
I think we have just had the buy signal.
Following on from the behavioural trading comments above it would appear that 'towel chucking' from previously confident holders on this board has been rife.
Particularly interesting to see 'I've held forever amd have no plans to ever sell' Seffy start selling.
If permabulls are capitulating, sorry 'trimming positions due to lack of info' and most of the price moves in the stock are just folks on this board pushing it around (super thin market, who else would be bothering) then all this is a pretty good sign of a tradable base.
The less we hear about Morroco and the more we hear about Ireland the more this sounds very 'bait (Morroco) and switch (Ireland)'.
Could one even look back and suggest Trinidad to Morroco was the same?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bait-switch.asp
Global macro background to energy prices, or even Irish energy policy, is all very well but irrelevant to PRD share price whilst PRD have no PROVEN gas or oil or, even if they have, no means of getting it to market.
PRD trades up on hope and down on reality.
Now of course if PRD management showed a glimpse of a positive reality that would help, but their focus on sitting on Irish panels pumping more distant hope rather than focusing on a Moroccan reality is a worrying tell.
Meanwhile, in behavioural trading land, it's fascinating to watch how the board's current bout of bearishness was only allowed to crystalise once one of the previously most admired bulls turned a corner and sold. Before that any raising of doubt was swiftly admonished or reported for deletion.
Waiting for peak board gloom (having been at peak cheer up at 14p+) and all the depressed quiet selling from marginal holders to wash through before buying back.
But as there is no fundamental value without deliverable oil or gas, this share price trades, much like crypto, on the selling of future dreams.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/algeria-warns-spain-not-re-export-gas-supplies-2022-04-27/
One way street, hey, seffy old boy?
I mention any sniff of a risk to this sure fire bet that you have bought and swear never to sell as it's a long term VALUE certainty due to other old boy's in the leather armchairs of Sevenoaks Golf Club citing hyperbolic tales of their time in the business Raj, and I get personally slated as a deramper and all sorts of abuse thrown my way. Yet the first sniff of someone questioning the value of your multi day posts (which I've never fully reconciled to your 'long term, have never and won't sell' position) and you go hurt and sniffy at the tone of the board.
Looks as though the boardroom of this board is being challenged at last (Thanks Barnyard).
Pol
If you are going to stick even a trivial £1m+ into PRD you'd be pretty sure to do your research. After all that research, which no doubt would include evaluating all the info available and analysed on this board, the company couldn't wring more than 9p from you. So why's that if it's blindingly obvious the shares are 10 to 100 baggers? Why even at a discount to market? Even at market it would be a huge free donation of liquidity to any buyer. No wonder Mr B bid for £50k. Hardly a massive commitment, anyone here would have bid at a discount to market. Either they aren't worth more (bad investment calls here) or PRD issued them too cheaply as very oversubscribed (bad management). If you are looking at parabolic value growth on a sure fire and obviously low risk investment you borrow the cash needed at a fixed %. Then you don't have to share the enormous upside. So why is no one lending to them?
What are the chances that once this monster billion dollar find emerges then the Moroccan State decide to keep it all for themselves by either changing the law or tie up PRD in legal process that bankrupts them out of the way.
Billions vs tiddly company? Must be a risk, especially as it could be couched under emergency national interests. PRD can't even afford to drill decent tests let alone fight a legal battle against the local State.
Not as though precedents of freezing otherwise legal assets under the banner of national interest are uncommon at the moment. (... Checks Russia's fx reserves).
You might as well have bought a pet rock rather than Harbour. A pet rock correlates in exactly the same way to every input that everyone here has been expecting to lift Harbour share price. The advantage of a pet rock is you know when you buy it that it will do nothing and so doesn't lead to years of frustration and disappointment.
Because i can be.
Sorry not to be in your ramp and hope camp and instead wish to introduce a bit of trading reality to your dreams.
I could criticise every other comment on here, on your basis, that doesn't introduce new facts but is equally just value of 'interpretation' of existing facts
Yet there is a filter here of value = interprettions that supports the idea that price wll go up.
no value = interpretations that don't.
Which is no surprise as everyone here must be an owner and wouldn't be an owner if they ddn't want the price to go up.
Sorry, this isn t a golf club where members can vote the rules and have people turfed out if they don't like the cut of their jib. So, I will hang around, read what i like, post what i like but more than anything use you all as a behavioural barometer for my own trading as the behavioural heuristics expressed here are text book.
If you dont like what I post I suggest you don't read it
No one's opinion of me on this board matters to nor has any bearing on me. Not sure how slating individuals adds any value to anyone's net worth. To egos, maybe. But you can't pay your bills in egos.
Thanks Nigel.
I for one appreciate your input. Amazed at the personal emotional vitriol thrown at you. As they say, if it gets personal they have lost the argument.
With no news out and the fashion swing in general markets from spec tech to commodities there is a fair % chance that the meme stock chasers have also moved their attention to microcap energy exploration. It suits the meme meme well. I.e. based on future dreams, no cash flow reality of the now to use as a reality anchor, the 'it will one day' can never be disproven and price moves are taken as proof of investment thesis though they can just be momo fomo reinforcing cycles. For example there is a chance that this move is solely due to those on this board lathering themselves into such a fervour they're just bidding against themselves.
The real test is how the price responds to a fall in momentum. A couple of weeks of flat trading from here is constructive, but at the moment it could all unwind in a nano.
Final point I'll reiterate from an earlier post. The best traders spend 90% of their time trying to discover how they could be wrong. For that reason alone your input should be appreciated by all. Even if they disagree they should take in all info available.
Cheers
Pol
My agenda is to encourage examination of why we are wrong. I want the shares to climb as much as anyone, but as they haven't I have to question my reasons for continuing to hold them. Any trader worth their salt spends more time looking for reasons as to why they could be wrong than why they are right. At the moment share price would suggest we holders are wrong. If we can drill into why the share price is unchanged or falling and address those we are better equipped than if we refuse to look and hang on to the reasons we originally bought. We are experiencing a time decay factor of correctness as the info we've been waiting for is not producing the share price moves we predicted. Hence.. question what we are missing.