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I reckon it will now flat-line @34p until 2:30pm then close around 37-38p...

:-)

Yeah did the same today, dropped, closed the gap and the onward & upwards, maybe drop to 31p then off again.

There was no end in sight in May, there is now and things have actually improved from May with a) Vaccines closer to getting sorted & b)death rates simply do not match the scale before. Look at the data, the '2nd wave' will be over soon enough with deaths still in the noise level, given 1,500 people a day die in the UK anyway.

I was chatting to a guy at KPMG and I think everyone is fascinated on how stakeholders will deal with Cineworld as a company in distress, yet profit making before COVID, as compared to the likes of Debenhams, Byron etc. The outcome here will set the tone and the ramifications will ripple beyond Cinema.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/cineworld-must-dig-deep-to-survive-closures-avoid-bankruptcy-8211-analysts-60660240

"A potential lifeline could come in the form of a one-off tax cash receipt worth $200 million Cineworld is expected to receive in the second quarter of 2021 under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, Tailor noted. "If they can bring that forward that would help a lot with liquidity and may lead to the possibility of securing additional funding," he said."

Lmao Shorterguy, always wanted to buy a flat next to PC World overlooking a car park & the @rse end of an industrial estate... oh wait I wouldn't be able to see that as no windows...lol

Doing the opposite to MF is the most sensible approach.

Whilst Mooky is playing hardball with the Studios, he has given them 3 days to sort their **** out regarding Q4 films so will be interesting to see what comes out of LA & NY in the next 3 days.

Cheers Laidback, move a few other meetings so I could attend and very insightful. Also to note that Spain is on the mend in terms of deaths/cases; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
Both cases and deaths clearly showing the 2nd wave is a media frenzy and normality is resuming, the graphs also mirror the UK but we are 2-3wks behind.

Bad news about Bond being delayed again, but fundamentally, Bond release on 20th Nov + no covenant waiver = a massive problem. I sat on a Zoom call with fellow business leaders yesterday morning including CFOs, Deloittes, HSBC etc and a topic for discussion was debt in the COVID-19 world. A few major takeaways from the discussion;

1. Initially during the pandemic, banks had been very supportive in assisting companies in terms of liquidity and waiver on covenants with no real end in site or recovery plan. Simply put this was giving businesses breathing space to cope with the sudden shut-down/revenue drop.

2. Sept. onwards there has been a hardening in both Bank & Auditors to ensure that companies have a realistic plan for recovery beyond COVID-19. A credible revenue stream over the next 18 months is a key enabler to getting agreement on waivers/liquidity.

3. Also key to securing the waivers and support from banks is having a strong business track record, stability, longevity and also having strong relationships with banks.

4. Long term debt structuring needs to be considered in a post COVID-19 world.

With the above cautionary points I believe CINE and specifically Mooky are in a strong if not challenging position. Firstly the current Daily Mail/BBC '2nd Wave' noise looks like in will not come to much and cases will drop and deaths back into the noise. Yes I'm referring to UK figures and 75% CINE revenue from the US but the market seems to be based on UK sentiment. Secondly, with the strong slate of movies in 2021, I believe there is a credible revenue stream to base covenant waivers on. Q4 likely very slow, Q1 ramping and full steam Q2 onwards. Yes attendances might be down a little but with a blockbuster a fortnight revenue might not be too far off 2019 in 2021 with 2022 stronger given the knock-on lag/back up of titles. Thirdly, Mooky has a good relationship with his banks and a long history of successfully growing a business & revenue and is a shrewd operator.

I believe what we'll see in notification in early Dec from CINE of successful covenant waivers based on a) the 2nd wave failing apart & b) the 2021 slate being credible due to a. I believe CINE will then look at possible re-structuring of debt end of 2021 once some SP normality has restored.

All IMHO and the SP will be all over the place in the interim, but Mooky & HSBC will make sure CINE survive.

3 things Walmart have done in 2020... 1 they might;

June - sold their video streaming service Vudu
August - Setting up Drive-In Cinemas in 26 states
October - Offload Asda freeing up £6.8B stating "use of cash proceeds" from the sale "will be determined at a later date".
December - Buys Cineworld :-)

Probably another rogue landlord not playing ball.

Initial drop was caused by a £20k sell @ 1:03pm followed by £40k at 1:09pm then another £40k at 1:21pm ... that was it and knocked 5% off lol

Agreed and this Sky data summary was the best I've seen... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03cDtC_8V5k&t=309s. given folk can only die once (fat, vulnerable, existing conditions, diabetes etc) the 2nd wave deaths are very low. Will be over in time for Bond!

With Spain allegedly 2-3 weeks ahead of us, things looking good...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

The 2nd wave is simply not materialising in terms of deaths.

Great news, always does the opposite to MF!

Can’t see an equity raise at this level, if they can borrow in the depths of COVID with no end in sight, I’m sure they can borrow again now given COVID is on the way out. Looking at the figures even in the UK, cases now matching the peak, but testing up 4 fold and deaths in the noise level. Influenza and Pneumonia rates are well down on the average as the folk who would have died now have already been taken and even factoring in COVID, current death rates per day are below the norm across everything. The studios need the cinema as a conduit to revenue so I believe the covenants and additional liquidity will be secured given the 2021 slate.

Covid deniers? Good watch based on cold hard data... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03cDtC_8V5k

Given folk can only die once and Pneumonia & Influenza deaths are well below average, i.e. they got taken out by COVID-19 and cannot die again to Flu, we'll exit this year pretty much flat on deaths. A guy who works for me sadly had an Uncle who died recently of COVID-19, the fact he'd been hit by a bus and in a coma for 3 months, but still a recorded COVID-19 death. The media is in full-blown hysteria mode, more folk die of Prostate cancer every day than COVID-19.

... on Monday or Tuesday saying they've added 1% to their 5.56% holding. I expected a bigger drop today but I believe they've been happily soaking up sells.