Member Info for Pmoran1969

It’s all a bit confusing when looking at companies like nbrown and the debt situation. On one hand they are a retailer selling household goods and clothes but on the other hand they are actually selling finance. It’s a bit like the car leasing firms who are selling you a new car but are in reality selling you a car loan and providing the car too. As long as the debt is in the loan book and as long a nbrown are good at managing customer bad debt and as long as they sell out finance at a higher rate than they buy it in it’ shouldn’t be an issue. In effect the amount of debt naturally goes up rather than down if they sell more product so the key focus for them to be successful is managing cost of sale and managing customer debt. They are of course vulnerable to any kind of credit squeeze a la 2008 but I hope not to witness one of those again.

We don’t know what the outcome of the investigation regards boohoo supply chain will be but we already know some things from the initial times story. Some of the institutions will not want to be associated with a company that knowingly exploits uk based staff and if the investigation proves beyond doubt that there have been shady/unethical practices going on and the boohoo board did or conceivably could/should have known about it they may want or have to sell their holdings from some or all of their funds. The other thing we know is that their current stable of brand influencers and their customers were by and large mainly unaffected by the initial story. For me that makes boo a risk to own because whilst there’s a degree of confidence and certainty about sales and profit growth there’s a degree of uncertainty about key investors, influencers and customer reaction. For me personally that risk was offset against the price I purchased them for. I have some faith that the boohoo board wouldn’t have reacted as they did with the independent review If they thought they had lots to hide. I believe that Sla jumped the gun thinking there would be a massive customer backlash and those institutional investors that didn’t react to the times report would, as long as sales and profit are where they need to be, give boohoo time to address issues raised in the report. We might see people who bought recently at £2.20 decide to take their profits at £3.20 rather than wait for £4.20 but let’s not kid ourselves that private investors are going to make the difference here it’s how the institutions react that will take us up to £4-£5 or down to £2 overnight and their reaction depends largely on what price they got in at and what cost to them (Hard cash or reputation) sticking with boo or dumping them. Personally I won’t be looking to get rid and await with interest the updates expected in September.

Rahul, Whilst a second corona wave might be inevitable what’s not inevitable is how governments will manage it. I agree that banking construction and travel are all venerable to the kind of restrictions we faced when wave 1 put us into lockdown and they remain venerable even if there is no wave2 as the economy falters and job losses and business failures and inevitable loan or mortgage failures affect the industries most vulnerable to such things. However I question whether govt would go back into a lockdown that would effectively bring the economy to its knees. I believe that much of the expected cost of Covid wave 1 is priced into the affected sectors and a reluctance by governments to treat a second wave the same way should mean that banking construction and leisure/travel are as cheap as they will get. I bought into some of these sectors for that reason which means I’ve either got in at a good price or I’ve successfully caught a falling knife that merely halted its fall just long enough for me to grasp it! I’ll look back at my decisions at some point and either call myself a successful contrarian investment guru or a complete tool for trying to second guess Covid and the market two tings which in all fairness I knew Nothing about! I do have balance in the portfolio and my recovery punts are smaller in percentage terms than my buy and hold forever shares but my personal view is if I’m not prepared to take risk based on my own interpretation of what I see I might as well just buy a tracker or put all my funds into investment trusts and let someone else make the hard decisions. I hope I’m at least a little bit right but hey I always hope for that!!

Steve, I looked for some possible underpriced recovery plays and have bought the following sInce Covid hit.

Tw- they did a placement (to build a war chest to take advantage of lower land prices) and shortly after placement the shares dipped below the discounted placement price and I got in then. House builders will suffer during a recession but I’m looking long term and figure if the recession isn’t as bad or long as feared, if the govt opt for future help to buy type schemes and if we do start converting high street retail outlets to homes and relax planning rules so houses can be built on graveyards, motorway hard shoulders and in royal Windsor park then it’s the the big boys whi will benefit.

Barc - I already hold hsbc but banks are cheap and so added barc at 105 on the basis that they have investment banking arm, are certainly cheap and will undoubtedly bounce back and will pay dividends while I wait.

Bwng - they are one of the old catalogue companies (buy Your stuff now and pay x per week For 20 weeks) who had declined over recent years. They have done a lot of work to improve their management team and their online offering and are effectively an online department store With a couple of niche brands doing plus size. They are way below their pre Covid price and knowing what we now do about online shopping numbers during lockdown I’m more excited about this than any of my other recovery punts. I got in at just under 30p and I hope to see them back up to £1+ by the end of the year.

Mks- I like what they’ve done with m and a food with motorway service station shops, garage shops and in town food shops on the smaller high streets and I also like the Ocado tie up. I think m and s in one form or another will still be with us in 10 years and they were going for a song. if this were a horse race I’d probably have had an e/w bet but I still think there’s juice in these shares.

Wmh - I already held wmh and with dividends reinvested they didn’t owe me Anything pre Covid but share price tanked when all sport and therefore betting on it stopped. I was confident that they would recover but took the opportunity to increase my holding and now have considerably more shares in them at an average price that has me in profit. Wmh have about 20% market share in the us and as moe and more states make off track gambling legal they are poised to get their fair share of the future revenues, I expect to see their share price improve beyond the £2.00 they were at ore Covid over the next couple of years and given the Potential size of the USA market I see this as a real winning share for me long term.

Well People power if nothing else you have taught me that, in the words of the great Stan Laurel, a pencil must indeed be lead!

People,power, people on here, myself included have tried to give you polite feedback about your somewhat evangelical posts. You may (and I’m not saying you have I’m saying you may) have some good ideas about this share or investing in general but sadly anything of value you have to say is simply lost because you insist on posting the same ‘go for a walk every day research boo every day and leave it in an isa for 20 years and you’ll be rich’ message. I see Chris England or wyndrum or Steveknowsnothing among others being open to having a debate. People don’t always agree but there has been some interesting discussion on here Simply because people don’t always agree. Sometimes there is natural repetition from individuals when responding to a post or explaining their point of view and that is to be expected but to blindly post the same thing over and over again and then suggest that anyone who disagrees with you must have lost money so they are bitter is not conducive to a proper adult discussion about boo or any other share and regardless of what you may think when you are typing it comes across as a bit immature. Someone posted a childish post about the misguided documentary today and instead of the entire board calling them out for being an eejit it’s your following posts that have been picked up on. That should tell you everything you need to know about how your posts are received and should make you think twice before future posts. Like I said you may have something relevant to add but it’s lost in the noise. Given one of your many posts recently claims to just want to help others wouldn’t it be a shame if people ignored you or filtered you simply because of the frequency or content of some of your posts.?

Senoir torro and bufaloben. Your comments demonstrate perfectly that there are indeed several ways to skin a cat. Some people prefer shares to property and some people trade shares whereas others simply buy and hold. Some people would buy a property to let out whereas others would look to flip it and buy the next one with a view to owning their forever home mortgage free. Some people will try to own a balanced portfolio of shares with a mix of imcome and growth candidates that they review periodocly and take profits/rebalance whereas others would imsist that the only way to truly make money is to nuy boohoo, stick it in an isa for 20 years and research it daily to convimce yourself you should still hold it! I like to see different points of view but there are some people on here who would do well to remember that whilst ts ok for everyone to go to the pub not everyone has to drimk guiness when they get there!

I’m pretty sure it will still be spherical shaped buffaloben do I win the prize?

So many inappropriate answers sprang to mind but I settled on. “Sure it’s ok to fall in love with an investment. Once you’re married the only thing that keeps going up and up will be the wife’s weight, stick with boohoo!!”.

Makes me wonder what they are smoking at the investors chronicle and whether they would consider sharing it!! But this is a game of opinions so the IC and the motley fool et al are entitled to theirs but I shall remain entitled to ignore both of them!

Will the announcement of recession in today’s media effect Boohoo? To be fair the news in unsurprising given that we already knew about it. Interestingly the q2 contraction in its entirety was broadly in line with estimates but the bounce back in June was higher than expected. That might well limit market jitters. It’s important to remember that the world has seen a contraction due to Covid and much of the uncertainty around how this will affect business has been priced into share prices. The market tends to react to surprises so I’m hopeful that asos news is a nice surprise that will be positive for boohoo and will not be overshadowed by the expected recession news. But I am a glass half full guy!!

Significantly ahead of expectations both in terms of revenue and profit,. One would hope that bodes well for boohoo. Expecting a flat start for uk shares at opening bell so if boo bucks that trend it could be an alright day.

Definitely agree bwng is full of possibility. Not sure the market was over chuffed with the jan trading update and where they were with their plans at that time but given they are a well established home shopping company who have put a lot of effort into their online presence I see them benefiting from the lockdown and as they are already a provider of credit they will most likely benefit from peoples need to buy on credit during any recession. Centrica is a tough sell but they too have made changes at the top and are embarking on a cost saving and refocusing of the business and despite out of favour and British Gas being at the forefront of any poor press about energy prices they are still the single biggest energy supplier and they’ve always been excellent at hedging wholesale energy costs so as smaller companies go bump due to wholesale price volatility Centrica will benefit and at the end of the day we will always need to but gas and electric, I bought in a couple of months ago. I also dipped into marks and Spencer’s this year as I reckon the Ocado relationship will be a positive for them and I’m hoping for a nice Recovery in their share price, I’m a long term holder of imperial brands and have topped up at what I consider to be silly prices for a company that pays a handsome divvy as well as, in my view, offering the strong possibility of a decent increase in share price this year (also fairLy recession proof). Finally although it’s likely to be a longer term growth opportunityI think William hill are both undervalued and going places. They have a good foothold in America and as each state legalises gambling wmh will get their fair share of the pie. Share price has started moving upward recently but they are still well below the pre Covid levels and below the £1.60 recently achieved. Not unlike boohoo patience is the key.

I’m a holder of azn who recently topped up my original tranche was Ought at £35 a share. So even with a recent add on at just shy of £70 a share the company owes me nothing. As a long term holder I’m used to azn stuttering every now and then but they have grown consistently over time and I expect them to continue to do so. For me it’s up there with my Unilever and Diageo shares in the forever hold em category. I’ve given up trying to understand why the price moves as it does (or doesn’t as the case may be) and just stick with it and hope to stop reinvesting dividends and start spending them one day in the future.

Abf refuaed to go online because they couldnt reconcile the margins when cost of dwlivery and returns processing were taken into accoumt. Even though it cost them during the lockdown they still said its not something they want to look at as it didnt suit the primark business model. They are a steady eddie somewhat dfashioned company still majority owned by rhe weston family and i dont see them considering boohoo.

Investing101 Imperial brands is a very frustrating share to own. Dividend has been good but the price has dropped significantly over the last 24 months. They are a solid company generating lots of cash and should be relatively recession proof. However they do seem to lag behind Philip Morris and BAT which is part of the frustration. The whole vaping kills thing in America did them no favours but as the cigarette companies are aware nicotine is highly addictive and wether it’s through vaping or cigarettes their product will continue to sell in quantity. My personal belief is that whilst they are out of favour and slightly overlooked at present they will come good again and at their current price they are worth holding for the dividend and expected growth. However I don’t think the rise from £12.50 to £25 will be quick or without challenges so it really is a longer term hold. I’ve held for a few years and have topped up to bring my average down through recent lows and am perfectly happy to continue to hold and reinvest dividends long term.

Ian b. Seen you on a couple of different boards and you have an annoying tendency to talk sense!! (A rare thing on some of the other shares chat!!). My mars position was already under review when the JV got delayed but you’re right the latest news looks like the final nail for marstons for my money.

Do me a favour and If you enjoy a beer this evening make it a marstons pedigree lads . I need something g to get their share price ,living in the right direction!! Well done Anyone who was able to take advantage of low low entry prices. To those longer term holders (I’m one) who had the nerve to average down and continue to hold, congratulations it looks as though we might be seeing the benefits at last. Here’s hoping.

Micky. On the basis that no guidance has vome out to suggest otherwise and based on what wr know about online shopping incrreasing during lovkdown etc those of us who are bullish about boo would expect to see an upward trend etween now and results and would hope that high 270's is the new low and that that will increase in thw coming weeks. However those of a more bearish nature might well argue that a lack of guidance could still produce a set of results at the lower end or just shy of target a d a futuee outlook that affects sales or margins. In that case it might prove difficult to break i to the 280's and the sjare might flucuate between the 260-280 range for a few weeks. Add into the mix institutions and market makers and the effevt they can have and throw in the financial press/analysts and our friends at the sunday times for good meaxure amd its very much anyones guess and down to personal preference. Whihether you thnk 260's is long gone or 290s is a mere pipe dream its a csse of make a decision to hold or not and stick with it until you know better. Im no trader but even if i was im not sure this is a share to trade at the moment.

J d Williams/nbrown used to be a direct competitor to the Kay’s and littlewoods etc catalogue brands. For years these companies were ahead of the game with home delivery and free returns and allowing customers to buy the products by paying weekly. They had state of the art warehousing (at the time), great product buyers and an excellent returns process and enjoyed a loyal customer base. Kay’s/great universal stores even owned their own delivery company in the shape of white arrow. The catalogue companies fell by the wayside a bit with the advent of the internet and most companies embarking on home delivery. In fact the great universal stores brands were sold to littlewoods (shop direct/very group) and both nbrown and very group have had to play catch-up to be able to still exist in what might now, at least on the surface, appear to be a saturated market. However the real business of the catalogue companies wasn’t so much offering the convenience of home delivery or the possibility to buy everything in one place it was to enable people to buy it on the weekly. It’s a different marketplace today but there are still people who want goods and who haven’t got credit facilities or have maxed out credit facilities that will still look to these companies to get what they want. They might try to sex up their branding and get on the influencer bus (Although one could argue the catalogue companies were the forerunner er to modern day influencing when they got soap stars and pop stars to model clothes in their catalogues) but they really aren’t trying to compete on a like for like basis with the likes of next or boohoo what they are trying to do is offer the home shopping experience and credit facilities to a customer base that is outside that of boohoo or next. Personally I think there is a place for very and down group but it’s a tough market place and there are risks with owing them. At the current share price I would say risk is mitigated somewhat and bwng might just be worth holding as they will most likely benefit from a recession and high street businesses failing. I’ve recently bought in at just under 30p in the hope that they can get back to pre Covid share price but it’s one of my recovery ‘punts’ as opposed to other shares I have either purchased or topped up at cheap prices because I beleive them to be solid companies that are simply undervalued.