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I've watched your stupid link Toaster. Tell Alan. His expectation is that they'll wrap up 1a in this or the next cohort and it's very unlikely they won't find an MTD. Seems an odd expectation to have given the stunning results to date and comments we're miles away.

Timster, my question is why it might finish sooner.

Jive - I understand your points regarding FAPa. Is there no mileage in my suggestion then? That being the case, where does Alan's confidence come from? We've heard they're nowhere near MTD and at the same time an expectation that they'll move to phase 1b soon in to H2. Putting aside that they can just declare a dose and move on, my impression was that Alan doesn't expect to use all three additional cohorts and that suggests finding an MTD.

Waffle waffle waffle... they know it works ... waffle waffle waffle

There, FIFY

Yes he did Neut. Agreed. There’s no point whacking in gallons of AVA6k if it’s just a load of excess circulating. I think the confidence is based on the data they’ve seen and they’ve ticked the boxes needed to declare a dose or they have seen how it’s behaving and they know the next cohorts are almost certain to result in DLTs. Considering that, again you have to give the maximum respect to the altruistic participants

I thought energyshares post about dose dependence on 21 May 2023 07:51 was interesting. Could it be that they’ve seen that the amount of dox in the tumour is levelling off as they increase. You’ve then got two potential outcomes, it’s cleaving and not staying in the tumour and systematic dox starts to increase and so you’d expect DLTs and to declare a MTD or… any spare AVA6k remains perfectly inert and they’re just pumping more and more in without benefit so a biologically effective dose is needed. Escalating might only continue to demonstrate the exquisite specificity. If the dose dependent relationship breaks down beyond a certain dose then whilst it’s safe to keep escalating, it’s not beneficial.

Just an idea…. I think it’s consistent with what we’ve heard - they’re nowhere near an MTD yet expect the move on to phase 1b in the second half of the year. Possibly because they’re confident they could continue forever as it’s working perfectly from a safety perspective but it’s not beneficial - unlike lower doses for longer as designed for phase 1b. Note, a lower dose compared to a potentially hugely tolerated dose wouldn’t necessarily equate to a low dox dose equivalent as it concentrates the dox in the tumour.

Dacia is a cretin. How much dox.... if only they'd released numbers in their presentation... Plenty dox to be efficacious. Safety is already proven. The market is as thick as mince.

They'll probably be handing out flyers. Sneak preview available on twatter

Codejunkie and gje know what they're doing. Employ a bit of patience and that goes for guessing when cohorts will end. Alan has said they'll update us at each stage and they have. The bit between announcements is when they're getting on with it. Like others I'm quite welcoming of the opportunity to add at lower prices. A move to ATHs now does nothing unless its accompanied by a deal of some sort. There's a benefit in slightly less dilution, but it'll just aid HC and traders and I don't care about either of them.

Quick public service announcement - using a single indicator and stop losses, especially on AIM with the MMs and the wide bid offer spread is a 100% guaranteed way to lose money

Picking bottoms is a messy business

Looked boobless to me 🤷‍♂️

Neut, there’s no timescale on the Dx side, they’re clearer on the Tx and the cash burn for that should be well understood. Tony’s comment regarding being fully funded suggests he’s had his calculator out and that’s all that matters to me.

They have no reason for saying no further M&A, they perhaps could have said no M&A within the next trading period - but why shut down the possibility.

They might very well have reconsidered having had a conversation with Myles, but I’d have bigger concerns about their leadership and their strategy if they’re taking the lead from an individual PI.

Neut,

'If Avacta come out and bought another company and spent another huge chunk of the HC bond you would be praising it as amazing. Go check back what Myles McNulty was saying regarding further M&A for Dx.'

Depends what they bought. If they bought ABDX having explicitly said that they have no interest in low margin manufacturing, then I think we'll struggle to find anyone other than a gormless sealion arfing from the rooftops. Myles isn't a company spokesperson. The recent presentation has more credence than some twatter speculation.

If they spend more cash, they'll need to ensure it has an in year benefit otherwise they're damaging the Tx business where they're trying to accelerate assets that could be worth billions to make a few quid elsewhere. It'd make absolutely no sense.

He's still going....

A failed gambler that only cares about the share price, yet is on here writing lengthy patronising and phenomenally idiotic essays regarding fundamentals - despite demonstrating a complete lack of knowledge of the basics. In addition to writing lengthy patronising and phenomenally idiotic essays regarding technicals - despite demonstrating all the hallmarks on a clueless gambler such as selling low, buying on a spike to then average down, following the crowd to the next high risk duster. Moronic doesn't cover it.

Arf arf arf.... have a fish you moronic failed gambler twunt

Thompi - that's a great quote: "…as you’ll appreciate the level of spend on the Therapeutics programmes can vary quite significantly depending on how quickly those programmes are accelerated…”

Goes hand in hand with Alan saying they're accelerating 3996. Looks like they're wanting to spend their cash on Tx rather than Dx. Seems like the pre-clinical data has got them very excited about the potential for a tumour agnostic drug. Bottom line is that they won't be compromising their clinical development programmes by spending cash on low margin tripe like ABDX.

They’ve plenty cash in the bank, if any additional purchases are not cash accretive then Tony would need to be sacked. If they spend their pocket money on Dx then Tx needs more cash. So they’ll get some via a doom spiral. As has been said before, perhaps they’re expecting another milestone payment. Cash is not an issue - we’re only talking about it as 🐶💩 gravel teeth thinks it’s a workable angle. The amount of dilution from the entire recent raise is not large. This has bought a cash generating Dx business. Ignore the twunts.

Ripley, your twatter profile is looking superb, keep up the good work

Very nicely explained thread. Two things have changed, Alan has said they’re accelerating 3996 and he’s said they intend to retain it. No wonder… He knows it’s an absolute monster. Owning a potential tumour agnostic drug for solid tumours without side effects is phenomenal.