Member Info for pjh1

Not all of AIM is gambling, but it can be highly volatile. This is part of the reason there is so much opportunity for PIs to achieve exceptional profits. Not sure why anyone would try to make short term price predictions though - seems like you'd be setting yourself up to fail.

Wayne, this is going to roughly follow the Lasonde Curve over the next 2 years but volatility will probably be high. If you have low conviction, why not sell now and buy something else? I’m holding for production, announcements out of Saudi, and new exploration across Ethiopia - especially the old Vale tenements. Good luck

I think a lot of these jobs have to be advertised to locals in the first instance, but providing certain conditions are met, can then be filled by non-ethiopiasn nationals if there are no suitable in-country applicants. I don't think the availability of skilled Ethiopians (or lack thereof) will be a constraining factor here as ultimately the positions can be filled by those from nearby countries, which have established mining industries, where there are candidates that do have the necessary skillsets.

Sharezy - I think you are being very generous by suggesting that the poster you refer to has walked away with any kind of profit. I’d suggest that this just the latest of one of several handles for someone that lost his shirt in this stock, and is so incredibly sore about it that he has dedicated an unhealthy part of his life to throwing mud at the company to obfuscate his own financial calamity. It’s very sad that the stream of negative posts has also most likely led to many small PIs selling out over the last couple of years missing out on exceptional gains (and more to come). Best he is simply ignored. Can’t fight crazy.

Smelly - you’ve made a cornucopia of claims on this board which have been verifiably wrong, and in so doing you’ve missed out on a massive rise share price, whilst no doubt persuading a lot of investors to sell their stock missing out on significant gains. Why should we listen to you now?

Crazy - maybe that would be an option but what about if there’s a window to IPO Saudi in the next 18 months or get the African focussed gold fund on board (which remains in play according to recent company announcements and may have better terms than the stream). Either option could bridge the forecast finding shortfall and optimise overall NPV across Kefi’s portfolio.

Downloaded ALL of Bonkers0801’s posts about Kefi (via a quick custom script). Got AI to assess his posts, which awarded him a solid 5/10. Well done Bonkers. Your report card below:

Overall assessment of the Bonker0801’s astuteness (KEFI-specific)

Bottom line: Moderately astute on governance and dilution risk; weak on timing and price calls; low reliability as a forecaster.

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What the poster got broadly right

• Dilution and financing risk: Repeatedly warned about equity raises and dilution ahead of formal completion. This aligns with subsequent events and reflects a sound grasp of AIM capital structures and mining finance sequencing.

• Scepticism on ramp-driven price targets: Consistently challenged aggressive re-rate narratives (e.g., immediate multi-penny moves post sign-off). In hindsight, those ramps did not materialise as advertised.

• Exit discipline: Exited around the liquidity event (bank sign-off) at ~1.9p, which—relative to later trading—was not a poor execution.

Where judgement was weak

• Timing and near-term price calls: Multiple assertions that the price would stagnate or fall materially were contradicted by interim spikes; the poster later conceded surprise at those moves. This undermines forecasting credibility.

• Inconsistent conviction: The tone oscillates between certainty and retrospective caveating (“I might be wrong”), suggesting reactive rather than probabilistic thinking.

• Over-indexing on forum dynamics: Excessive focus on other posters and “ramping” distracted from objective valuation and operational milestones.

What’s missing

• No structured valuation work: There’s little evidence of cash-flow modelling, sensitivity analysis (gold price, capex, schedule risk), or explicit NAV ranges.

• No quantified position sizing: Claims about holding size are vague, limiting confidence in alignment between stated views and capital at risk.

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Rating (KEFI calls only)

• Risk identification (dilution/governance): 7/10

• Trade timing / price prediction: 4/10

• Analytical rigour (valuation): 3/10

• Overall astuteness: 5/10

Interpretation: The poster is a useful sceptic for risk flags and exit discipline, but not a dependable source for price targets or timing.

Mithrel is sitting on between a 2x and 3x return on his roughly £3.6m holding - you have a funny interpretation of desperation Bonkers, especially as you have called this so poorly (despite claiming an almost perfectly timed exit). What a joker you are. Thanks for the Christmas belly laugh - you are a comedian.

I’m pretty sure it is - we know the contractor was going to subscribe the $23m via an ERN, so amounts seem too coincidental to be chance.

The $23m from the contractor is the $23m ERN in the RNS, right?

Good grief, more AI goo from GoldQueen. Do you actually read what you’re generating from Grok/ChatGPT/Claude before you post it here? What a word salad….

Pete - the Solgold deal was opposed by BHP and Newmont because they were EQUITY holders and had their sights set on a future takeover (as you will know there had been previous bids for the company). KEFI is completely different - pretty much all of the funding package has been assembled from debt, none of which has been provided by any entity with any significant equity stake. You are comparing apples with oranges. If you’ve listened to previous interviews with Harry or attended events held by KEFI, you will know he has been laser focused on finding debt instruments that are compatible with the bank debt. This isn’t his first rodeo, his team isn’t that green that they would sign a debt financing package with the banks and then sign a parallel financing arrangement which creates a covenant breach or similar. Have you done any reading around your investment here? It doesn’t feel like it from these comments you keep making.

Magic - the bank debt was always communicated as a separate piece to the $60m, and KEFI did tell us in advance these would be separately sequenced items. However, the delay on the final $60m is stretching my patience, especially in light of recent RNS publications. Final funding should have been lined up ready to press the button and legals should have been largely drafted months ago. However, maybe Harry will surprise to the upside with an amazing deal with the African mining fund he mentioned. Here’s hoping for a KEFI Christmas bonus 🤞🤞🤞

Pete - what do you mean when you say "40 years as an analyst". Do you mean you've been an IB analyst for that period? What qualifications do you hold to call yourself an analyst, or is this a self-appointed title? If you did work in IB as an analyst, you should surely understand that your statement "KefiGold Mining shares never, ever, approach a NPV value" is nonsense on its face for a raft of reasons, including that it does not encompass all Kefi assets and because the numbers underlying an NPV calculation can move very significantly over time and therefore change the NPV output. For example, my base case assumption is that the known higher-grade underground resource at TK will grow very significantly as it is drilled out, increasing the LOM and the NPV.

That is a very simplistic statement to make about Kefi’s share Pete, and assumes: Kefi’s other assets have essentially zero value, KEFI fails to recover the areas neighboring TK overpegged by the HK shell co (now tenuously claimed by Askari), KEFI does not grow the TK resource, gold prices don’t rise, energy prices don’t fall, etc.

Obviously some of those companies you track will have seen the projected NPV of their projects increase materially over the last few years as gold prices have doubled, their resources grew, etc. and likely some of those companies will now be valued at levels which match or exceed historical NPV figures simply because variables in the NPV equation have changed very materially over that period.

Jealous much Pierre? What a sad life you live.

Luckily Trump has stated numerous times publicly that the U.S. funded the GERD dam in Ethiopia and therefore the U.S. has a multi-billion dollar vested interest in backstopping regional peace. Trump has already eluded to the fact that he has intervened when Egypt was making threats towards Ethiopia about the dam's impact on Nile river water levels. Regional tensions clearly are not going to be resolved overnight but things have evolved significantly since 2022.

Also, Ethiopia now has Turkish Bayraktar Akinci UCAVs - the original Bayraktar TB2 drones (cheaper and smaller payloads than the Akinci) we acquired by Ethiopia in late 2021 and were pivotal to swinging the balance from the TPLF to Ethiopia's favour and the ending of the Tigray war in 2022. Akinci UCAVs are a much more capable weapons platform and would be devastating if deployed in force. I feel this would be analogous to the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh against Armenia, it wouldn't be a fair fight at all, Ethiopia would dominate the battle field with this enhanced air power.

Hopefully no conflict will arise and the U.S. will see that their investment in the dam is not threatened by further fighting.

Oh Pierre, do try to keep up. What’s the point publishing paragraphs of AI slop which simply conclude that a NON-PUBLIC document could not be found online?

Pierre, most free satellite imagery services rely on out of date images unless you pay a hefty fee for high resolution up-to-date satellite feeds, which probably isn't worth it for you, especially given that you own no shares….

Magic-orb - readers of these boards should also be wary of posters that have opined about the RNS and slandered HAA without taking the time to understand the RNS properly (e.g. your comment about BCM without seemingly realising the very obvious link to the $23m ERN mentioned in today's RNS). Just because someone has posted on multiple bulletin boards doesn't make them particularly knowledgable about a share.