Singer note on Research Tree2 Sep 2024 08:04
XPF has continued to prove its concepts appeal and slick execution with positive momentum in LFL, site numbers and margin. This has resulted in FY24 being ahead of our estimates. With no change to management expectations, we hold our 2-year EBITDA forecasts and introduce FY27. Whilst current LFL’s have moderated from historical highs, this is in keeping with the wider sector, against which it continues to outperform. Critically, forward bookings for peak December trading are at record highs. Additionally, there is excellent news today of a £10m RCF from Barclays a huge endorsement which transforms the expansion outlook and removes growth funding uncertainty. XPF’s track record is impressive, increasing revenue by 2.5x and EBITDA 2.7x since FY22 and maintaining a net cash position. However, its market cap is 25% lower, trading on a lowly 4x YR1 EV/EBITDA with a FCF yield of 19% - BUY.