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Sorry to hear you sold half, but respect your choice and reasons. I will hold on, I do disagree with the idea that the company should say something on the lines of see no reason for the drop. The market makes up its own mind and I don’t think that would deter the shorts anyway. I see no reason this will not come good, even if it’s not in the timeframe we are hoping for. Hope you make up the loss and more with the remaining half, patience needed as ever. Gl
Good news, Woodford has a massive holding here (~24%). CIR is a really unusual case of a share price fall with absolutely no fundamental or RNS relatable reason, in fact it should be going up based on the really positive recent RNSs and FDA approvals, plus a broker target 4-5 x current SP. it feels like this one is under the radar which is confirmed by the relatively few posters and low % of ‘O’ trades vs Algo trades. Look at the awareness around companies like Motif Bio...Could be a multi bagger by this time next year IMO, dyor GL
Stay strong Cuddo. Re-checked all recent RNSs and nothing makes me worried. Directors brought in fairly recently at ~£12. RNSs are all factual and to the point, not sure what they can really communicate other than “work is being done and will update the market at earliest opportunity”
Reducing holdings in a range of companies (PFG for example) Not convinced he will exit 100%, but you never know. Interesting find about Steve Harris. If that’s the case presumably that would mean blackout periods for him buying. At this price there could be plenty of interest elsewhere as the outlook for CIR is good. You pay your money you make your choices.
Yes agree, I am taking a longer term view, so although painful at times am happy to wait and add on any big dips. Maybe they can hand out free airNOvent for us holders!!!
CIR has been subject to a lot of its funds altering their positions recently so us PIs have been swept around - I would say it’s been a perfect storm, unfortunately the wrong way. Unbelievable value currently. If the company continues its current progress the illiquidity will go in our favour once funds settle down and further good news arrives. GL
Could be flying next year. Well worth the wait IMO and it's not a binary stock.
The company will be doing everything to get the audit completed. GL all, be patient...
Yes 1% movement, above 3% to notify
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/1.html
Good spot re the website stated holdings mis matching RNS holdings,
Examples
Octopus, 17.5% vs 16.09%
Cat rock 12.7% vs 12%
Stankard life 8.6% vs 6.79%
So really at least 2 of those should have a change of holdings RNS??
The only RNS with a reduction in holdings was Aug18, Bank America Corp from 5.1% to <0.5%
i thought changes above 0.5% had to be declared in TR-1 which top holders have reduced??
Positive that GEP has been adding though. Also no declared shorts exist >0.5%
Expectations of MWbill in Mar RNS, good progress in Audit made.
Hope this comes good
Here is the paragraph
The Board remains confident that its policies in relation to these matters are appropriate. However, one allegation concerned the Group's historical compliance with National Minimum Wage Regulations 2015. The Group has been engaging with HMRC in order to quantify underpayments made in the past to workers, over a number of years prior to 2018. Potential underpayments identified by the Group relate to a limited number of food production facilities and the payment for preparation time, which is generally the time spent donning workwear. A provision of £4.4m had been made for estimated additional costs in the Group's accounts for the year ended 31 December 2018. This provision was included as part of the £20m of exceptional costs announced in the Company's trading update on 8 January 2019. However, as a result of legal advice, the Board has revised its estimate and deems it prudent to increase that charge by £3.5m taking total exceptionals in the period to £23.5m. The additional provision referred to above is exceptional and is the only change against market expectations identified by the Board.
Not surprised they closed out, nice profit and may indicate the bottom. So just Woodford fund still unknown. They had a large 28% holding, maybe another fund(s) picking them up at a bargain...SP seems to be settling at this level for now. We shall see, volumes still quite high.
Thanks to all the posters on here. Decent crowd. Brought in chunks average 2.70. Looks like it’s settling around the 250mark +\- 5%. RNS to drive the next movement. I am going by what the company stated in the last updates, that is audit close to being complete and 2018 results will be published as per expectations. Could be any day now. What seems to be factored in is that the company is in real trouble (was £12 less than 6 months ago) if you can hold a year or more could be a 4x multiple. GL all and the LTHs.
Virtually all the volume, which is 700k just this morning, are Algorithm trades so an order is still being filled...... Hopefully enough buyers at this level though we shall see, not all finished yet! Company on other hand in strongest position for a long time. Once cleared out there could be a decent bounce. Dyor
CIrcassia mentioned. Seems like this could be the recent seller. https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/221483/neil-woodford-s-fall-from-grace-where-it-went-wrong-for-the-famed-stock-picker-221483.html
Hi Meaning, It’s a good and valid point. Maybe we will see some director buys coming soon as this would certainly boost PI confidence!! It looks like the dust is settling now (my guess only) so hopefully a good time average down. I noticed talk of Woodford not doing great on another board, so perhaps there is something in that.
There has been/is big institutional buying selling driving the SP. keep an eye out for holdings RNSs in the next days. We are subject much bigger forces. The company is (imo) set to have a good year. I emailed CIR on the address below regarding the SP. they are disappointed but said that they are focussed on driving the business forwards and delivering their plan. You can contact them as below, responded to me within a day. GL IR@circassia.com
Problem is it’s a long walk back, we are close to 50% down since ~28-30p... If you go by the broker ratings this is now >5 x undervalued...peel hunt reiterated its buy just now Is this a crazy bargain now???? IMO dyor
Keeps dropping so big selling still not done (IMO)
Current II holdings Invesco 28.35% IP group 6.92% Woodford 28.03% Neptune 4.78% Tot 68.1% shares in issue Does anyone know AZ’s holding? Oppenheimer 10% holding sold out. Broker avg ~80p (4x from here) BUY rating Only stated short position closing out (2.5% currently down from 5%) Summary, oppenheimer out, short closing, bottom or thereabouts reached. Expected break even 2020. Q1 35% sales growth compared to Q4. Great international sales plan. See podcast re Final results on 1st May (available on company website) long detailed presentation.. I don’t think this stock has much PI awareness. Could be an interesting one. GL
Don’t think anybody knows what’s going on tbh. Will have to see what holdings RNSs are published. Everyday is the new 52 day low so where the bottom is ..... no clue! Will top up more once a stable bottom is established or perhaps a bounce is on the cards. GL all
invesco increased from 22.98%-28.35%
Oppenheimer Funds, inc 9.79%-0% and out.
Is this the end of the background institutional buying and selling, must be getting close. the recent switch to AIM for Circassia would have meant some existing IIs, not suited to AIM, selling and some new getting on board.. Be good once al this is sorted so the SP can settle.
Seaking, lots happening for CIR, dyr in more detail and you can judge yourself. GL