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All fingers crossed..
From memory they will flow test the deeper zone first then up to the mid Eocene. But should be news along the way down of course.
GL all
Yes a detailed explanation would be welcome. I hope that we can get up to at least 500-800, but it is possible PH may have to come out and tell the market for whatever reason it’s going to be more like 300-400.
The RNS states
‘Production resumed on 11 July and since testing began the Well has produced at an average rate of approximately 360 boepd (295 bopd plus 390 Mcf/d) on varying choke sizes’
Does that mean since testing began back in April the average is 360, or since July 11th? If that includes flow rates from before 11th July which were stated at around 700 then the recent flow rates must be even lower? You see so many ways to interpret this. Also you would have thought that the well has produced for well over 20 days since initial flow tests and before July 11th, plenty of time for clean up.
Anyways I don’t know enough about wells and the information available to us in RNSs cannot be priced together into logical sense so we need a solid explanation from BLOE.
I suppose we will learn something about flow tests vs production flow rates.
Still loads of upside but it sends a warning shot that this is all very high risk! GL
Appreciate some with more tech knowledge have positively posted about the water cut and flow rate but so have some with knowledge posted negatively.
The RNS is impossible to interpret, if you try to connect Fridays news with April’s news on flow tests and production they are chalk and cheese and not interpretable, honestly nobody on here knows.
I expect PHs phone has been ringing non stop, this time from baffled investors who placed money at 11p. Let’s hope for some decent clarity early next week.
Yes good forward prospects but a lot of us also want to know what the now really is. GL all
Let’s give BLOE the chance to provide further flow rate news and see what the well can deliver. Personally I have lowered my expectations on this well but I’m happy with my position as there is plenty of upside still remaining and a decent return could be made.
Jumping the gun a bit to start commenting on the misleading of the placement. Let’s see what is achieved before assuming things like that.
I hope PH gives an interview shortly to clear up what is actually quite confusing and does not completely add up.
Predicting the SP is ridiculous as there are too many variables such as an interview, RNS etc.
Lol, well if Garyn wants to pursue that avenue it’s up to him. If the guys who subscribed to the placing feel mislead I am sure they will be onto the lawyers already. I do feel some detail is needed to put all this straight. GL
LB, Garyn is raising some good points and they are well reasoned, it’s good to have multiple perspectives and respect for others opinions. If this is all good then it will be reflected in the future. GL
Clearly PH needs to clear this all up and a very good point about the placement. I was thinking BLOE did well to get a placing at 11p. Can’t imagine those guys are best pleased right now. Anyway be good to see 500-700bpd and progress elsewhere. We are where we are irrespective of speculation...GL
Garyn, cheers for digging that up. In that case it doesn’t add up at all!!!! Clarity required
Yes that RNS has loads of missing info and has caused confusion - it was a poor RNS tbh. I suspect clarity will emerge next week. Maybe an interview.
There was no data about flow rates during that supposed production period - strange and why not. I remember PH in an interview glossing quickly over that the well had been producing. As I say it’s just IMO but that well was not in production. The RNS out yesterday looks like all the tellings of a well just starting up.
I am a bit sceptical that the well was producing at all (albeit on and off) since initial flow tests. Otherwise yes surely the excess water would have had time to clear out had it been producing ..... all IMO
SwearingNige, of course I am hopeful of much more than 15p but I find it best to lower expectations. I will revise estimates once 16 is drilled, flow tested and we have a consistent flow rate at 16az, until then reality shows there can be multiple outcomes. GL
Mike, there are both rampers and de rampers with the objective of trying to influence others. It’s a free bb and just like politics. Stick with your own research because nobody on here knows more than you or I ... GL
Lots of good posts today. I think the wording of an RNS carries a lot of weight. For instance, if the RNS stated that these flow rates are normal for well clean up and we fully expect to reach our desired target over the coming months then the reaction would have been quite different.
IMO the market is now doubting this well and what it can deliver.
It is a double edged sword, on one hand I don’t like to see the value of my shares drop but I sold half out on the open, brought back lower and added extra so turned out ok. I do think we will have more ups and downs along the way so I always try to maximise my own situation whilst being long term. Got to the point of listening to my own instincts, in the end the company does not know exactly how the well will perform so how can someone on here!
I do think with the multiple targets here we will do well, just keep it real and I’d be pleased if this well flows 500-700 and we add with the others. If we are 15p by year end happy days.
I think our CEO will have learned a lot from this, onwards upwards and prudence . GL all
I suspect the well was not flowing at all since initial flow tests. If it had been flowing on and off in the past months then surely it would not be in a clean up phase now and also at what rate was it flowing if it was indeed flowing?
Some trust issues here and now doubt about the capability of the well hence the SP.
Hopefully PH can update the market in an interview but I notice the RNS did not state ‘will be getting up to 700bpd target over the next months’
Has there been an error in original calculations? I thought this well was hard to restrain!!!!
It is what is is and more wells to come but I will be pleased at 15p tbh GL dyor
I will add more if this settles as this sp.
Re read the RNS several times and it does specify they are taking a very cautious and prudent start to production so I hope we get up to 500-700 mid term which will be great. The good news is we are now producing and we have multiple targets coming up so even if we get to 15-20p by year end that’s great.
I do wonder if the well was producing on and off as specified? Surely the clean up period would have already happened. Seems to me that well was not producing until recently.
Lessons: PH calm down and give some realistic guidance.
I was always worried about PH talking about 1,100-1,400 bpd flow rates and even recently talking about being a 10k bpd in a few years. He is getting carried away and hopefully today will be a lesson.
So the reality is most likely this well will be a 500-700 producer. A great result but around 50% of suggested numbers and that materially changes the company valuation, so a pull down is SP is justified IMO.
Less hype please, 1 step at a time and some realistic interviews
This is exactly as I feared and posted about many times. Sadly PH banged the drum continuously about 1,00-1,400 bpd and the amount of generated cash flow from that. This set the market expectations too high...I wish he would have pulled back a bit. I’m sure the well will get up to 500+ but that is a fair chunk of less revenue let’s be honest.
Too much hype GL
Yes they will arrive no doubt!
Good update video from total market solutions. AC talks a little more about C22 than before. So looks like we should be starting on plan.
Yes that bb is melting with posts lol. These things happen on AIM, I was lucky to have kept a few £’s to re-buy some BLOE at a lower price. Just trying to average down on a long term basis to de risk. I think it’s fair value atm based on potential etc. The market decides these things not us.
Yes come on Zen let’s have two great drills and we will all be very happy come year end. I’m sure AC can get the Mafia involved somehow if need be and make anything undesirable disappear...