Member Info for pickedpeck

Of the market and the message... What they are telling us is they have a $93.25m investment in a set of assets on the book at $4.9m Can we please now shut up about the BoD? This is a phenomenal bit of business!!! GC even thanked us for our patience :)

It also explains why you can generate momentum downwards despite a lack of an obvious real reason. Margin traders have tight stop losses to avoid being wiped out, the MMs know this and will play games to trigger sells. Easy way of dropping a price and getting cheap stock.

Everyone seems to be getting very excited about 8m shares, there are PIs with nearly that much. RH has been selling down 134m shares. 850k transaction in a £140m mkt cap company is not much to get in a twist over, and defninitely not a volume to manipulate the market for. The real question is whether someone serious has taksen a stake or started to. If we see a pattern of thee trades over the next month then it will be much more interesting

One last thing (before going back to the day job!) - Contracting just about the largest mobile rig in Colombia to do this drill may indicate why it has been slower than expected, there are only two others at this size in Estrella's fleet and they are both AC rather than DC, i.e. need a very different power source set up before working.

It also indicates this is a pretty damn serious hole they are planning. There is no way they would use a rig this size on a small prospect, there are plenty of much cheaper options.

This is the rig being used to drill Indico - http://www.estrellaies.com/en/flyers_2014/equipo_2029_eng.pdf , just looked it up. 2000hp is a pretty big rig, I think it may be 3-4 x the size of the rig used for Mariposa

Someone down below was guessing 38 days per drill, that may be well off. It entirely depends on the rig spec, some can go 2-3 times as fast as others - oddly enough they have an 'engine capacity' and horsepower rating that largely affects the drill pace. Exploration rigs tend to be lighter and lower powered (cheaper/lower cost risk) than those used for drilling wells planned for production (bigger bore, faster).

From the cost it looks like this will be a high horsepower rig so may only take 20-25 days to get to full depth vs the previous 38. The allow 10-20 days to move position and set up. Optimistically you may get one hole every 4-6 weeks. ONGC do move rather slowly though (!!!!) so probably more like one every two months.

The rig does not belong to ONGC, its a contractors drilling rig. Once the drill is complete and capped they can move it to drill the other wells. I am not sure if we got from the tender docs whether the tender was awarded to the one contractor, if so they will very likely use the same mobile rig in sequence. Easy when you only have to move it across the pad rather than across the jungle!

workover... No onshore production assets with pipeline access go for $2 in the ground. $8-10 minimum and for 2p not 1p. Find an equivalent example from this year where less is achieved.

I am not sure if anyone noticed the change in 2P in the RNS on Indico. They wrote that at 10.8MM , 3.25MM to AMER. It was previously around 1/3 of that.

The purpose of an E&P company is to do the E to expand the P. Amerisur have plenty of opportunity in more than one producing basin to do exactly that.

I am happy for you to push the share price to go down a bit further though, I have money moving to buy a further decent chunk and would like it as cheap as possible before I do.

Drop on no volume , hardly any trades. This is just a market wide issue in lowering price. There seem to be only two 50k trades all week. Trading update next week may well see this more than corrected.

Bays, I really think you over analyse this things sometimes. I’d be with you on being played, but JW has 22m shares or so mostly bought at higher prices than today, and all the options execute at higher prices too. Surely the BoD and management wouldn’t be so bright as to screw themselves over as well as PIs. If there is a conspiracy, which I doubt, it’s one of incompetence rather than malice. I am still hoping for some more holes in the ground by the end of the year, but faith is being tested for sure

RNS indicates this will be the last production update until the end of quarter, they had probably decided this and hence the delay in this rather flat release. Elodie effect after all.

Good news on Indico. Not a good on the Pintadillo structure being " intercepted low", that implies flow may have tailed already. Looks like it was a lucky hit, they will likely have to drill more to find out where the structure goes and how much more there is. Positive news on Put structural assessment

Have to say it had crossed my mind too. However the rigs are mobile now, you don't assemble them - they come preassembled like a cross between something from Thunderbirds and a North Korean missile launcher. They literally drive up and can start drilling in a day or two once all the ground work and cellars are complete. The whole point of preparing a pad is that so one of these beasties can park up on it. The alternative (nowadays) is a skid based rig which is craned into position. Thats slower and harder work, but still not a complete build from scratch. Skid based rigs tend to be used where there is easier access, I suspect this will be a 'walking' or rolling rig.

Try Googling 'Mobile Drilling Rigs' and you'll see what I mean.

We are all drawing significant conclusions. It could be just something really simple, that bringing Elodie on board has resulted in stopping the monthly production update figures announcements and they didn't see fit to bother telling anyone.

In fairness none of my other oiler investments announce monthly pipeline throughput or production, maybe Elodie came in and said 'why the hell are you doing that?'. It has been used as a stick to beat the company with for sure.

Holding the camera? Lol... Now that would be material news... JW decided to pursue other opportunities ... as a photographer!

Where is JW?

I am starting to think a bid is the most likely explanation, every other option would not warrant a (10 day?) delay like this. Only a bidder could ask for information material to the price to be delayed.

I agree with JTD. The BoD have been like clockwork for two years with the production updates and have never previously gone beyond the 9th of the month in releasing one. It would be extraordinarily hard to justify a delay with negative news only. It is possible they have some bad they want to hide in some simultaneous good. There are a lot of things happening at more or less the same time any one of which could be material to the price. I suspect this is production and spudding related rather than a deal, a deal would have leaked by now and the price would be going the other way. They will all be noticing the share price and may be trying to build a breakout news release. JW bought after the results at 20p, they believe there is more value here and must be wanting the market to recognise it, and must also be under constant pressure from major investors to fix the price. So I expect a bundle of good news, spudding of CPO-5, Chiritza in service, reservoir statement on Pintadillo, follow on wells targeted, deal on PuT-8 spudding, new tanker load sale at higher price, and enhanced production. My nagging doubt is the harsh sell down and price drop over the last two weeks, does a large investor (other than RH) know something that’s driven that? Seems unlikely but possible.

They were put in place in response to an AGM motion requesting more frequent updates. They are under obligation to release material to the company value, ie a deal or a disaster, but I agree they can sit on positive information a while longer. It’s more peculiar that they haven’t before and are seeming to delay this time

If we don’t get a production update tomorrow something is definitely afoot. They have done Fridays a few times. They shouldn’t be able to justify a longer delay. There is another option apart from those below, that something negative has impacted production that they are still trying to establish the nature of. I think this is unlikely as it would have leaked by now. Some issue with OBA and Chiritza commissioning possible but unlikely. Deal is possible, but doubt GTE the week they list, it would be too material to investors to deliver a few days apart. JW sold Emerald Energy to Sinopec who already have a decent presence in Colombia as a result. Shell is another possibility. Big reserves statement on the Pintadillo discovery a possibility, but less likely. Enhanced flow rate announcement most likely. Spudding additional well(s) from Pintadillo pad is possible, as is CPO-5, as is agreement on Put-8. Rig is likely still on site for Pintadillo. Overall I think most likely is a combination of positive news items on operations, but if not tomorrow then I will have the weekend to worry about it.

Looks like it will be the latest ever this month then. Got to wonder why.