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It will be a trade that was delayed for some reason, it was after hours and an O trade.

Jasehm, I doubt that is actually the case on the ground. JW has vast oil field seismic analysis experience, I suspect a lot of what is going on is based on his direct input into the drilling programme with ONGC. This is a way to combine financial clout with local knowledge (JW there since 1992)

Brent passing $56 on the way back up too which might also help. Just for interest , Brent API is 38.06 , WTI is even lighter at 39.6. Indico at 35.9 is likely to track pretty close to Brent at the well head.

Taking the chance in a non closed period to add. With all the news recently and likely to be coming the next week or two is their likely only chance. Not a tiny purchase either, and Dana is a pretty savvy kind of chap.

The LS3 sands run under the whole area way beyond the CPO5 block. At Mariposa the company assumed it had hit oil in a relatively small trap and looked to drill Indico up dip in a bigger trap. However the size of the gross pay at 283 feet is much bigger than the likely trap size could be, and with no oil water contact it implies the whole of the LS3 layer in the block is oil saturated. I agree they are drilling infills to test this hypothesis, the possibility that there could be a layer of light API 35.9 oil saturated LS3 Une formation highly porous sandstone 50-200 feet thick under the whole of the NW area of CPO5 extending who knows how far to the SE. The same theory applies as in Llanos 34, the bumps and traps will be thickest gross layers, but they hardly matter in the context of the huge simple field theory. You know that bit on the TV antiques shows when somebody wanders in with an old blue and white pot they have been using as an ashtray / umbrella stand, and the expert spends the next ten minutes explaining the history of the dynasties of China before giving a lottery win price tag on the pot? The bulletin boards and investors for AMER have just heard the equivalent of the words ‘Ming, priceless, find of the decade, and expert verification’, we have not got to the price tag yet. There is nothing on the books for the CPO5 asset yet, if it as big as the evidence and clues are suggesting then it’s valuation is indeed transformative. Conservatively 50m barrels would add $120m to AMER in net value. I think we should probably be expecting in the range 200-350m to be proven over the next 12-18 months, $500m-$1Bn value to AMER. Very optimistically could be more, but that really would be a world class asset find and into the billions. All of that without the next round of Putumayo transformation with OXY. Focusing on short term 17p or 19p is totally missing the possibilities here, the news flow through this year could see this ten bag from here or even more. It would be still exceptional value at 2 or 3 x today’s price based in news already out.

Looking to get out or selling at a limit is up to any individual, but I suspect you may be missing the point in doing so. This share was and still is highly speculative, but a good part of that speculation just became reality. CPO5 is not only a gusher, it’s a potentially massive find worth multiples of the currentmkt cap on it’s own. AMERs interest in it could be worth a. Billion dollars or more. Why speculate and then get out when the bet hasn’t paid off yet? Odd.

Bye then Fred. Transformation in progress now. 4630 boepd, four more short term wells each likely to target 3-5k production. Net to Amerisur @30% doubles Amerisur production by adding I.r.o. 5000 boepd net (16-20k total from new wells including Indico, 30% to amerisur). I seem to remember production and sales costs for CPO5 at $23pb , anyone else remember or know the figure? Let’s say $30 net income , $150k extra per day at the current oil price, $1m plus net income per week on top of current revenue. Near double that if oil goes back to $70. An extra $50m net income per annum. And all of that without the Putumayo expansion. Caterpillar just turned into a butterfly.

One last thing , the Indico discovery may have scuppered the below plan A as it is possibly a transformational asset worth that kind of money on its own. I don’t believe they expected to find anything like the size of reserve they seem to have hit. That could cause radio silence whilst they figure out what the hell to do next.

At the current mkt cap AMER are absolutely a takeover target as they are sitting on a cash pile, have massively undervalued assets, and a strategically valuable pipeline. I believe being acquired has always been the board’s exit strategy. The big question then is not ‘if’ but ‘when’ and that is driven by how tightly held the bulk of the shares are. The institutional investors who hold the most stock must be on board with the board’s development plan as AMER must be getting inbound interest already and continuously. I believe the reduced activity and lack of news flow this year has been driven by this, RH selling his holding made an early take out possible if a few of the other major holders also cracked. An early take out would not have returned the target price and been seen as a failure by the board. It’s interesting that the majority of RH shares seem to have gone to open market rather than existing ii holders, in effect to PIs. So given there is a target price in the background the current publicly traded share price is irrelevant to the final take out price as everyone will have signed up to an exit hypothesis / retirement plan. There will likely be criteria for that we are not privy to, but I would guess: - CPO-5 reserves proven - could happen in 2019 - Putumayo blocks covered by seismic and prospectivity confirmed , 2P > 500MM , will likely happen in 2019 dependent on OXY - the often referred to 20kboepd production level, again just about possible for exit of 2019 If they meet those criteria by this time in 2019 I would say they will be gone early 2020. There will be bidders who have assessed the probability of them achieving that and driving the price much higher as a result who will be putting ever more enticing offers on the table. We could see an earlier take out as a result. As a crazy prediction, if they manage to hit those criteria I expect the planned exit price is 100p for early 2020 but they will have to hold on tight to get there and be reticent with news flow, that may drive us PIs a little mad particularly the short term holders. Just a few new year thoughts.

Thanks for that, but as always Do Your Own Research. I won’t knowingly lie but can absolutely be and indeed have been wrong. I have built a large stake here based on the E rather than the P of Amer’s E&P strategy so my money is where my mouth is, but am absolutely aware this is a high risk investment that will take time to pay off.

Just for scale, CPO-5 is bigger than South Yorkshire or Surrey, and is about the same size as West Sussex.

Bays, you’re not just comparing chickens with eggs, you’re comparing empty coops with golden eggs. You’re comparing unexplored block size acreages with Amerisur discovered field sizes. CPO-5 block alone is 492,352 acres, mostly still effectively unexplored. The combined Putumayo blocks are two million acres. At the AGM presentation they had a total block size of 984,000 Ha, or 2,431,516 acres. At the interims this had risen to 1,030,000 Ha or 2,545,185 acres, a 120,000 acre increase. The Texas land auctions are for expensive and dirty to extract shale blocks in the Permian basin. These acreages are in the light oil (part of) Llanos and Putumayo basins. It really is chalk vs finest creamy Brie. Unfortunately I don’t see anyone lining up to pay $95k an unexplored acre in Colombia. If they did the equivalent value would be $240Bn or so for Amerisur’s blocks.

This morning’s directorate change (no stress there) had the modified footnote: ‘Amerisur has recently announced a potentially transformational discovery at Indico-1, which significantly exceeded expectations - 283 feet gross, 209 feet net oil column.’ They understated it on the 10th letting people infer the above from the statement. This makes it a bit clearer.

Tweedlehappee - old maps and new discovery at Indico are not consistent. The 10th of December announcement included this absolutely key line: ‘The LS3 sand package is the same formation which holds the 120 feet oil column discovered at Mariposa, which lies some 6.5 kilometres to the North West of Indico-1.’ The Mariposa estimate of 4km2 may be ridiculously low, if it is the same formation, and is as seems to be implied in communication, then with the Indico showing 283 ft vs 120 at Mariposa the area of the find could be for the sake of argument 3.25 ^ 2 x pi , or 33km2 . Given that Sol seems to be targeting the same structure a further 6 km away then maybe, just maybe the field radius may be > 6km rather than 3.25 , then the area could be as much as 113km2 . One thing is for sure, it’s a hell of a lot bigger than 4km2. My calc potentially puts 1.6Bn Boe in place, which is such a big number it seems ridiculous. The first time I did the sums I thought I had the decimal point in the wrong place somewhere. Even divided by 10 it’s a transformative find for Amer, but I think they may have suddenly found they have a tiger by the tail.

There could be 200,000 bopd down there! There likely will not be, but that scale of find has been made in the Llanos basin before. Have a look at the link to the Llanos block map in the post below, sure the really big field over to the East that is producing 218,000 bopd is the wrong side of the heavy oil line, but given where Mariposa and Indico are located it is possible they have found a very large field. The block size is much larger than some of the already high producing areas. What they have found is certainly a lot larger than they expected, and they expected something big in the first place. The Mariposa LTT is almost certainly still being run as a test to hide the true size of the reserves. A typical test lasts a few days to a couple of months, never years. When they eventually announce this a lot of things will change very quickly.

Same guy, same basin, same (Une) sands as EEN. This is an old link showing the kind of possibilities in Llanos https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/colombia/new-155169 . I think LL34 may be a smaller play in the end than CPO5, but these blocks can contain a lot of oil and generate huge production.

John Wardle was CEO of Emerald Energy back in early 2000s , Emerald had a series of discoveries in Colombia and a one time depressed share price because of a fatal accident. I bought EEN shares at 8p, and thought I had done brilliantly well when I sold them a few months later for 17p. They were bought out four years later by a global player, Sinopec, for 563p. I had enough shares then that it would have been the equivalent of Euromilllions numbers. This is shaping up to be a repeat, JW is replaying the same game. I can’t fault him for building his own stake before letting the news flow. Just saying, keep an eye on what your real prize actually looks like.

Heading for uncertain times on the wider market always drives up the gold price. This is material to PAF as the extra $20-30 per ounce puts a little more oomph into the revenue. The share price is currently still lagging the gold recovery creating a rather nice investment opportunity

Shorts closing for Xmas? The risk (!) of good news over the next two weeks is high enough for them not to want to watch every day. All we need now is an oil price u-turn. Funnily enough I think Trumps (mad) decision on Syria may well drive it that oil price around the u-turn. It essentially hands Syria to Iranian control which will infuriate the Saudis, any support for Trump and low oil price may well just about instantly evaporate unless sanctions are implemented and tightened.

BF - Bakoven has posted this article more than once here. The news of court cases against us was also posted by Bakoven, and the implication there is a Spanish speaking cacophony of protest is also from the same source. This negative background noise is delivered with purpose, and it appears the more you say it the more true it becomes. The article is poorly written, poorly researched, contains factual errors, and is not backed up by any independent source. Quite the contrary in fact, RNS releases talk of Consultia Previa process, license grants and more. There is no requirement for veracity when posting a website, you can make up any old crap and put it online and claim it’s true. Be careful what you absorb. Taking what’s amerisur themselves post online (and verifiable from other sources): Biodiversity and Development in Putumayo initiative In June 2017 Amerisur ratified its commitment to working in, and the natural conservation of, the Putumayo region with the signing of the Biodiversity and Development in Putumayo initiative, working alongside the Corporation for Sustainable Development of the South of the Amazon (Corpoamazonia); National Natural Parks of Colombia (PNNC), Alexander Von Humboldt Biological Resources Research Institute and Sinchi Amazonic Institute of Scientific Research. Sustiticion de Cultivos Ilicitos – illegal crop substitution programme The Government’s ‘illegal crop substitution programme’ compensates farmers for the eradication of their coca crop. Amerisur has been assisting the Government with this process, providing local farmers in seven villages in the Putumayo region with pepper plants and farming skills such that they can swiftly make the transition to a more socially desirable and profitable crop. Black Pepper is a high demand crop in Colombia and provides a steady income. Alongside this Amerisur has promoted and contributed to two associations, “Asopimenteros” and “Asocamelias” that focus on the production of black pepper. Santa Isabel School Amerisur is committed to supporting local communities through sustainable projects aimed at improving education and their overall standard of living. During 2017 Amerisur continued to focus on improving access to and promoting further education through the construction of two classrooms for grades 10 and 11, two laboratories and two sets of toilet facilities for the students of Santa Isabel School. And so on. Read full sustainability view from the company on the page below: http://www.amerisurresources.com/our-approach-to-sustainability