Member Info for pickedpeck

Colonel, agreed, there needs to be more transparency on Platanillo particularly as it appears there is life in the old dog yet. I would be amazed if they didn’t announce the outcome from P26, and Sol is material so will have to be announced. Both dry, 10p, both producers, 20p. One wet and one dry, who knows. I still think AMER will be off the market by the end of the financial year either way. It’s way too cheap for its asset base now, with the Middle East getting shakier by the day the acreage somewhere vaguely stable is bound to look attractive. An effectively unexplored onshore basin with pipeline access?

Is the silence golden? One trade in the first (nearly) hour this morning. No bots, auto trades, continued dumping. Maybe, just maybe, the sellers have now stopped. The chat board clutter has also slowed, no more shorting. Two wells about to announce over the next few weeks may have taken then downward pressure off for a while. Too risky to short as too little downside with current production. Baysil - be calm old boy. We are better without debt, and with partners doing all the work / investing. It’s just time and timing that matters. If we are at 6500 ish now, we are producing more than 18 months ago where they managed to spike one month to 7,000. Our exit rate for this year will be 8-10k bopd, same cash, more valuable assets.

What a whinge fest. Yes the share price is in the doldrums but surely board election and LTIP aside today wasn’t all bad. The morning RNS rolled up some good news and was timed for effect, but drama factors aside there was good news in it. Today the company announced two wells being drilled simultaneously. When did that last happen? Ever? Two separate blocks being drilled at the same time. They announced current production well above guidance for the year, if either of the two additional wells should see it pass 7,500, the highest ever. Both maybe past 8,000 plus potential reserves uplift. They also announced the first third party crude shipments for OBA, at $5 a barrel 2,000bopd it could be worth $3.5m on the bottom line a year. And they also announced two planned side tracks for Platanillo further upping Plat production. If you really are a holder of this share and want to see some value realisation this is all good surely? It’s the best I have felt about them for weeks. Sol results should be mid June, Plat sooner.

CYB - My bet here is for market consolidation in the way the currently stressed market is likely to play out, I see AMER as a sitting duck for a larger US or Chinese buyer. It seems inevitable to me at some point as Colombia starts to look a lot more attractive than deep offshore or other worse alternatives and the money and investment capability consolidates into fewer players. I do believe there is an ongoing shift from Carbon based energy to cleaner forms for a variety of reasons, denying it seems pointless. That’s not to say the oil price will collapse any time soon, just there will be a rebalancing of exploration and production efforts. A serious reduction will take 20 years or more, plenty of time for some asset monetisation here in the meantime. As a result of the shift though there are opportunities in the materials and mining sectors which will grow as electric power develops. Tesla and others are saying Nickel (amongst other rarer metals) is going to be in short supply as battery production ramps up. So my hedge for AMER is another play in S America resources, HZM. A bit like AMER they are sat on a huge unrealised asset (in the ground Nickel resource) but do not have the capital themselves to develop it and are in the process of raising funds. It could turn into a world class / top 5 Nickel mine. Perhaps even more speculative than Amer, but macro economic drivers in favour rather than a headwind. Meanwhile back at the ranch, this is the rainy season, previous years have seen little activity in country at this time so understandably quiet. plus can’t make the AGM now as have to work for a living still... I would vote against remuneration and options, and demand some buy backs if I was there.

CD - a lot of the holdings are likely aggregates of private investors and showing up as a single holding due to CREST holding rules and (lack of) transparency. Examples include Hargreaves Landsdown and iii which act as PI brokers with shares held. Banco Santander is one of the biggest ‘high street’ and retail banks in South America, so could well be some local holdings being bought through the bank.

BBN and Jaggers, I agree with both of you, I think this is getting ready for dividends off the back of FY19 results. The level of profit and reduced internal capex commit should create a decent FCF which could be disbursed this time next year. CPO5 and OXY exploration should continue to drive up production, revenue and consequently profit. I think they are getting ready to deliver some of that profit back to shareholders in both the buy back and capital reorganization proposals.

They must be very frustrated as a board that the company's progress is not being recognized in the share price, these are two ways of increasing shareholder value which I think would be very welcome, but also show increasing confidence in the state of the business.

3.3
Resolution 12 (Capital reduction)

As many shareholders will be aware, the Company’s early years were largely focused on oil exploration and development. The level of oil production is now greater than in the early years and the Company and its subsidiaries on a consolidated basis (the “Group”) has been profitable since 2017. However, as would be expected given the Company’s historical operations, the balance sheet of Amerisur Resources plc on a standalone basis continues to show an accumulated negative retained earnings position of $76.1m and share premium of $144.9m as at 31 December 2018.

For technical reasons under the Companies Act 2006, the Company would be unable to pay dividends until such time as the retained earnings were positive and showed sufficient distributable reserves to permit such payment.
The majority of the Group’s trading has historically taken place in the Company’s subsidiary companies and, whilst the consolidated accounts of the Group show positive distributable reserves, it is the reserves of Amerisur Resources plc (i.e. the parent company of the Group) on a standalone basis that determines its ability to pay a dividend. The Board does not currently have any plans to pay any dividends; however, the Board is of the view that it is now an appropriate time to restructure the Company’s balance sheet so that the Company will have the flexibility to pay dividends in the future, should the Board consider it to be appropriate.

Accordingly, resolution 12 is proposed as a Special Resolution to approve the cancellation of the amounts standing to the credit of the Company’s share premium account (the “Capital Reduction”). Such amounts, once cancelled, would create retained earnings, thereby eliminating the accrued deficit in the Company’s retained earnings and creating positive distributable reserves.

The Capital Reduction itself will not involve any distribution or repayment of capital or share premium by the Company and will not reduce the underlying net assets of the Company. The distributable reserves arising on the Capital Reduction will support the Company’s ability to pay dividends, should circumstances in the future make it desirable to do so.

The Capital Reduction is subject to the approval of the High Court of England and Wales (the “Court”). Application will be made to the Court following the passing of resolution 12 at the Annual General Meeting. An announcement will be made once the Capital Reduction has become effective.
The Board reserves the right to abandon or to discontinue (in whole or in part) the application to the Court in the event that the Board considers that the terms on which the Capital Reduction would be (or would be likely to be) confirmed by the Court would not be in the best interests of the Company and/or its shareholders as a whole.

Mine was at 14:42 , 149,023 buy. Sell also at 14:42 149,411, both are not shown in the trades for the day. It cost me 388 shares moving it into ISA, plus the dealing fee.
I can't see why this would be not a listed pair of trades. Seems odd.

Probably :)

He may be counting the Platanillo workovers around mid year that screwed up production!

My £20k trades from the day are not showing, should be both a sell and a £20k buy (shifting from share account to ISA allowance), different volume in each to allow for SD. Thoughts? Seems a low amount to classed as a delayed trade.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4256062-amerisur-resources-respectable-revenue-jump-capital-gain-depends-exploration?dr=1 Pretty positive article.

Dana Coffield announced dead today. He was the deal maker behind the scenes and surely helped drive the expansion of the land bank over the last two years. He’ll be missed.

That’s my point Gary, a grant becomes a grant when it vests, not before. Until then it’s worthless and not effectively real. You’re antsy about it because it looks like big numbers versus your income. The reality of ‘hostile’ country E&P is project teams can pull in ridiculous pay let alone in country C level types. I worked for a few a while ago now, as a C level officer of a multi billion multi national org I still don’t make as much as I did then. Griping about JW being well paid is facile. How much would it take for you to go and base yourself in Bogota in the middle of a civil war to manage oil exploration in the centre of guerilla country where kidnapping is rife and violent death just a matter of time and / or ransom non-payment. Probably a lot more then you are paid right now. The world is not Surrey, it’s DRC, Malawi, Honduras. Grow up and realise the world extends beyond your front gate

This might surprise a lot of people but the board really do not directly affect the day to day share price, only the underlying asset value. What the market is prepared to pay for that asset value is out of their control. If they were solely focused on the short term share price then the company would pretty rapidly go down the pan.

The shares were not issued and will not be under the terms of the LTIP for 3 years, and only then subject to price performance. That’s why the ‘issue’ from 2016 is now likely to lapse and not be granted. Please stop calling it an issue, it’s not. Btw, in my current job I have an LTIP grant that could nominally be worth $1m. Like many with this kind of grant I am really not counting my chickens on it as the terms are both all but impossible to meet and not directly affected by anything I might personally achieve. On the surface it’s wow - a million dollars - in reality it’s not worth the smelly steam off the CFOs pee.

The shares are only issued after a three year performance period, i.e. April 2022, and are effectively valueless until then, although often in a company sale the purchaser honours part or all of LTIP commits. They are granted based on compound price performance against 13.83 as a base price. For them to all vest the price has to be 23.89p or higher, 30% of the shares vest at 18.4p both prices for April 2022. After the shares are awarded they will have to hold them for a further two years, so effectively can't sell them until 2024. The size of the grant to JW is larger than I would expect, but for the CFO of a listed company I have seen much larger awards. Most of the shares are allocated to staff, likely key people they want to retain. I can't get over excited about this, three years from now the share price will either be much larger and I won't care or the company won't exist.

@JP2000 - The cash position is slightly skewed by the $19m VAT receivable, $15m requested. Adding that to the cash position would put the number closer to where many thought it should be. I'm not actually that fussed about cash so long as they remain liquid, in fact I would rather it was lower so long as profit and growth were higher.

The nasties for me were the tax rate which reduced net profit to shareholders to almost nothing, and the badly explained shift in intangible assets. That was a $16m downshift without what looked like a corresponding increase anywhere else. It looks a little bit like smoke and mirrors to avoid paying tax TBH, but still will show a daft and irrelevant PE ratio for any browsing investors looking to invest on eps / growth.

Obviously this is offset by the positives in the top line numbers, reserves and EBITDA both grown in year taking away some previous concerns. Disappointing no mention of Indico 2, and Oxy deal forecasting investment over three years. I like that it is a bit more conservative in tone, but nothing to get excited about.

A solid 6/10 for me. A pass but definitely not A* territory.

'As we continue to invest in the Permian, we will advance our appraisal in the short cycle low decline development opportunities in our new international blocks to prepare them for growth.
Our 2019 capital program is dominated by short-cycle investments, the majority of which will pay back within 2 years at $50 WTI.'

That seems to imply that the six blocks they have bought into in Colombia, four of which are with Amerisur, are expected to payback the $93m within two years. Interesting Oxy do not mention Amerisur anywhere, they name the blocks but not the partner.

Oxy started talking Putumayo in the 4Q earnings call in Feb

https://www.oxy.com/investors/Documents/Earnings/OXY4Q18ConferenceCallSlides.pdf

Slide 37 shows how relatively important the Putumayo farm in is to them. Having said that the transcript of the earnings call shows 2019 will be seismic and analysis, with not much drilling and capex planned.

'...along with 6 in Colombia and 3 in Oman make 10 new blocks added in the last year. These new international opportunities will add significant high-return low-decline development inventory to our portfolio. At the same time, it's worth highlighting that these will require only a modest investment in the short term.'

If patience is a virtue then I am going to be a saint by the time this pays off!

Has not been worth responding to, and silence from the company has been pretty deafening too. Baysil is probably lying low waiting for tomorrow morning.

What will the results say? We know the production and the likely price realised for it. Has anyone done a calc of the revenue? How about EBITDA? Any guesses?

I guess the big question is do the numbers tomorrow really matter at all? FY19 development program has to be more important, a whole quarter gone and only one spud, I am hoping they announce Indico 2 spud date tomorrow, but I doubt there will be much else.