Member Info for pickedpeck

One more thing before I put the calculator down. This 2018 Q1 production of 601k at a period average of $70 (they may have done very slightly better or worse) would be $42m revenue. That's only $5m less than the full year revenue for 2016.

I like numbers. I've just been doing some sums and thought I would share. Q1 2016 production 237,780 Q1 2017 production 378,820 , a 59% increase on same period 2016 Q1 2018 production 601,706 , a 59% increase on same period 2017 I did the production infills for July and January production based on the year and interim figures as there was no official RNS for the figures. Here are the production figures for the last 2.25 years... I know sad way to spend a bank holiday. The 2016 figures are mostly based on interim and final results daily averages. But plot it as a graph, its quite interesting. Three of the last four months have seen production over 200k in the month, and Feb would have been if it was a 30 day month. Mar-18 200,772.40 Feb-18 188,984 Jan-18 211,950 Dec-17 215,481 Nov-17 181,537 Oct-17 191,342 Sep-17 120,662 Aug-17 180,843 Jul-17 72,965 Jun-17 137,267 May-17 148,544 Apr-17 145,344 Mar-17 134,681 Feb-17 119,334 Jan-17 124,805 Dec-16 104,625 Nov-16 126,540 Oct-16 104,625 Sep-16 101,250 Aug-16 104,625 Jul-16 104625 Jun-16 79,260 May-16 81,902 Apr-16 79,260 Mar-16 81,902 Feb-16 73,976 Jan-16 81,902

Brent past $76 and WTI broken $70 for the first time since 2015. Even without the 2P drilling boost the production is starting to look pretty valuable as is. Brent $76 means a net back of just under $60, more or less $12m gross income a month.

Any guesses what they will be ? More or less than 200,000 boe? I noticed in the last statement some workovers were running into April so may be lower but would be nice to see 200k , 6,666 bopd average needed to do that. My guess would be just lower, maybe mid 190s for the month, still 190k at $50 net back equates to $9.5m

I see you’re also posting somewhat negatively on the Kazera LSE chat Bakoven. Do you own shares in both these somewhat linked companies, seems a conincidence.

In fairness... Submitting the environmental applications in August was done reasonably quickly after the POO started to come back to life. Bear in mind the oil price as recently as in July was in the mid $40s range having barely risen from the bottom in Jan 16. Back then there was no super rush to start drilling campaigns, cash preservation being king. No one was forecasting the straight line climb since then. This POO recovery wrong footed plenty not just AMER, and now suddenly even B&Q are sold out of drills and drillers, hardly a surprise it’s taking some time.

Actually I don't think the share price would look better with 20kbopd production without reserves expansion as the reservoir life would be cut by 2/3. The drilling campaign is way more important than current production, the current production just makes the drilling campaign and productionisation of the assets affordable without debt.

Brent (closest index for Amer) has been over $70 since 10th of April, monthly average somewhere around $71. AMER should be getting more like $69-$70 per barrel this month making the net back around just over $10m for the month. If the Iran sanctions happen then POO may well head closer to $100, every $10 on the oil price gives around 20% increase on the net back for AMER. EASYP - The reserves are the main problem holding the share price down. The above production and profitability is great, but it is on declining reservoirs with a 7 - 10 year remaining life. We need the drill campaign to boost the 2P, if we can get 2P to double or even triple (very likely but not definite) from the acquired blocks then we should be flying. If they manage to find rather more of the 1.3Bn they rather rashly say is possible then who knows what could happen. All shares are fairly priced by the market unless they are being manipulated. This one and several other small cap O&G cos are not recovering in line with POO. Hard to say why, but easy to argue that HUR, PMO, ENQ and others are all artificially low considering the POO and large cap moves.

A 1 share trade just after 8.00 at nearly a penny below price, then we slump 2.5% on no volume. This is seriously looking like manipulation of the price.

Yellow will fetch a big premium, seem to remember them selling a 70ct yellow previously for a very high price. I wonder why they didn’t put this out on RNS, maybe big diamonds are becoming business as usual for them!

BaileyClark and Bakoven - I am pretty convinced you must be both short on AMER. have either of you ever said anything positive about it or did I just miss it? This may be a bad stock to be short on as I think the only thing holding it back is there 2P, yet you’re whittling on about royalties ! Grim news - production is already up 50% from last year, pipeline throughout is also up a similar amount (more), cash is up, profitability will likely be off the charts now compared to a year ago. What score do you think we will get by the interims? The first quarter is in the bag already as bigger than H1 last year.

Laptop - how do you even make this stuff up? There is a good argument that ramping actually has a negative effect on share price as it makes investors suspicious that the price is only rising because of a ramping campaign. We would probably be doing better without it! Having said that there are some pretty gloomy people on here too for no apparent good reason.

Make that both final results and AGM past due. Never a good sign, finals were out in March last year, AGM end of April. Watching rather than in, stop lossed out a while ago.

This looks like an II dumping , lots of large round number trades today. No public news, but finals are due and maybe II has had some early insight or is derisking. If so it’s dodgy, the company should be informing the market if there is something material to the stock value.

Cash position massively improved, sets up profitability for the year. Ghagoo mine sale looks like it may be imminent, although been there before. Very hard to understand the lack of market reaction, can’t see any negatives in the update. Hopefully if the results for Q2 are in line we may get some of that cash as a dividend at the interims, particularly if the sale goes through.

Hardly any sells and volume driving the price down, hardly an overwhelming reaction. Amazing it is here I agree. Profit, no debt, drilling program, new pipeline in operation, POO, FARC peace deal, and drilling prospects for new field potential and so on. The only thing holding it back and upsetting private investors is lack lustre sentiment impacting the share price. The whole sector is still cheap despite rising price of oil, maybe the negative news on carbon, fuel bans, plastics impacting the environment, and association with some very dodgy parts of the world means investors don’t want to put their money somewhere just for the huge potential return? I read a piece on a tech company yesterday, no production, huge debt pile, building its first factory, $250k revenue, Mkt Cap £130m. If the market has **** for brains nothing the board can do - just keep on growing the company, at some point money will count. Still no comments or RNS on the very large buys and volume last week.

I have no problem with the LTIP, at the level it is at I am amazed anyone else does. The only way anyone is hitting the jackpot here is if the share price goes up significantly. Try buying in anyone competent without this sort of scheme. Sentiment is a fickle thing, nothing has changed in the fundamentals. Seems like a buying opportunity to me, so have bought a few more.

Hi Daysleeper, We are all here because there are prospects. bays may have gone insane waiting for the share price to recover, but based on current production and POTENTIAL performance with the drill bit there is a serious multibagger possible. However it will take time to realise the potential and after the moves over the last couple of weeks there are now a lot of short term holders hoping to make a quick buck. On the plus side Oil sector sentiment seems to have changed, the recent results have helped, but until 2P looks a lot healthier and the major seller - Rex Harbor - is cleared then there will be near as many downs as ups. Having said that a lot really swings on how well they do with the drill over the next 3-9 months. If they fulfil even a small part of their guesswork then shareholders will make a lot of money. I’d sooner they under promised and over delivered, but in the past that’s been the opposite way round hence a lot of angry shareholders railing against the BoD. GLA - 3/4 million shares in now and still building :)

Should be ridiculously positive , I am very surprised the share price has not gone further on the large stones. Any thoughts as to why? Seems out of line with the finds and the implied income.

Yep, up it means two things: 1. Amerisur can use their cash pile rather than have it tied up for cash flow management 2. Shell feel confident and engaged enough to put some skin in the game. Share price will continue to creep up through May, then it's all about the drill bit until the run up to the interims.