Member Info for Phrontist

This is a strong RNS with hidden message, so to speak.
Of course, nice to hear Merlin-1 is coming along fine (my summary).
That is a significant statement.
But mentioning Umiat had oil flowed at 200 bopd in 2014 and peaked at 800 bopd is truly amazing.
Due to close proximity of Umiat-23H with Merlin, there is hidden suggestion that Merlin will also achieve similar Oil Flow Test results. Which are excellent.
Phrontist

Mr Poz, I think we have similar thoughts, just the details.
This morning, a sensible person on HotCopper simply suggested that the current SP is already suggesting that next weeks RNS on wireline logging results will be positive.
At this stage, most true followers of 88E, and new USA shareholders, already assume that a Flow Rate Test WILL go ahead.
And some even assume that this result will be positive.
And so, if you buy SP later, it will be at a premium following two successful steps.
Personally, if the final results are good, it makes sense for CP to buy the XCD/Umiat 200K+ acre leases.
And it will be worth a lot to them, no question.
Phrontist

Mr Positive, don't sound so negative.
Ramping is irrelevant. The power behind 88E SP rise is USA based.
After years in the shadows, 88E has entered the limelight in style.
The SP may be slightly ahead of itself, but not necessarily.
88E is a very attractive purchase for large production companies looking for nice oily regions to give them 30+ years production work.
Equally, just the Merlin/Harrier/Umiat 200K acre area could be sold.
This leaves 88E with Yukon Gold and Central North Slopes, and a few US$billion to work it with.
Phrontist

Paper Hands, this is the ONLY true statement of Open and Close price for London Stock Exchange shares:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/88E/88-energy-limited/trade-recap

moneyhawk I agree..
Ever heard of negotiation?
$3 billion for XCD/Umiat could be acceptable....
Certainly put 88E into a strong position with further de-risking on Central North Slopes and Yukon Gold.
Phrontist

thetic
$350bil over 30 years is what the big Production companies do.
Yes, costs, tax, whatever.
Just look at some audited accounts, such as 2019 for Conoco Philips.
They provide a 100-page Audit that is interesting, even wonderful to read.
And they operate in a big money area not recognisable by us.
2020 was not a good year for many big businesses. They are keen to recover and re-assert there power.
I have worked for big USA companies. They make plans and crush competitors like nothing you can imagine.
If you wish to advise CP, BP EM etc how to make a profit, then go ahead....
Phrontist

plat time = play time

moneyhawk, BP sold out and left Prudhoe Bay region a few years ago, true.
But business is business. New opportunities arise. Company mission statements alter and develop. Balnce sheets and Profit & Loss annual Audits throw up new successes, failures, analyses, motivations, etc.
Some things are certain.
Alaska is in the most protected country in the world.
Alaska is 'an oil state' with some 80% of economic activity dependant on the oil industry.
It is observed that BP enjoy new site development followed by operation for the lions share of the resource.
They don't stay for lapping up the tail end of oil production.
Merlin / Harrier / Umiat is a new site, in early stages of de-risking.
And offering 30+ years of production in a very comfortable location.
What is impossible (technically and financially) for many is 'plat time' for BP.
Gravel roads, new pipeline extensions, top level geologists / chemists / computer analysts etc.
There is NO LIMIT (use in context please) to companies like BP, Exxon Mobile, Conoco Philips.
No disrespect to 88E, they have balls and guts to tackle Alaskan challenges.
I am pleased and proud to have been a Long Term Investor. And to learn much about this industry.
But the Big Boys are in another league.
Phrontist

11:17 true rfarfa
But this is where the calculations 'talk'.
Imagine we are offered US$2 per barrel.
This is lower than the $3.1 that Oil Search paid to Armstrong, in our wider region.
And for the 200,000+ acres of Merlin / Harrier / Umiat we estimate 5 bbo.
De-risking would have occurred on Merlin, hopefully with good results.
Some positive de-risking has already occurred at Umiat on several wells.
The Nanushuk wells just North of us on Conoco Philips sites are in various stages of positive de-risking.
I think there is another well West of our region with positive de-risking too.
So, nice big bundle of oily land, just waiting for 30+ years of continued exploration and oil production.
Expected life-time revenue to Purchaser of $70/b x 5 bb (billion barrels) = US$ 350 billion.
All we are asking for is $2 x 5bb = US $10 billion.

Please add to, amend, adjust as you feel fit.
But so far, this calculation seems quite reasonable.
Agree?
Contract can be flexible, with initial $1 billion on Contract sign...
And further $1 billions over some contract terms achievement such as further 'discoveries' by Purchaser, actual production, etc. I am no expert, but what is there not to like???
Phrontist
PS This makes 2.6p look pretty stupidly LOW

Hello Spartac
Welcome to the UK 88E LSE Chat Site.
Our lives centre around RNSs.
That is Press releases through the Stock Exchanges (just in case etc).
Few of us are 'real oil field operators'. (garrym is only one that I remember).
So, you can see we live on speculation, guessing the near future to far future, etc.
And discuss what is happening in other oil fields local to ours.
And waiting for the next RNS.
It is similar to 1984 in some ways......
ATB Phrontist

No doubt that 88Energy has gained massive potential shareholder visibility from the USA OTCMKTS (EEENF) connection.
And direct purchasing into LON: 88E through Brokers etc.
88Energy has special attraction to US Investors because the Field Operations are all in Alaska.And US Investors like to make US Investments, they feel much safer within their Homeland. Understandable.
Phrontist

Definitely, there are predetors circling around 88E.
Merlin-1 on its own is not enough.
But Merlin-1, Harrier and Umiat are the basis of a fabulous long term oil production region, of over 200,000 acres.
Merlin-1 is tip of the iceberg. It is proving out the region. Confirming the massive Nanushuk oil resource.
As I mention before, the Big Boys want viable 30 year and more, production regions.
88E have not issued a resource estimate for this region of the XCD site and Umiat combined. Yet.
The company is rightfully cautious. But IMHO, IF next week's RNS is strong, and giving immediate go-ahead for Oil Flow Test, THEN the possible 88E region resource is over 5 billion barrels of oil.
This is long term production outcome, not de-risked oil resource 'tomorrow'. And this is why the XCD/Umiat 200K+ acre region will attract multi-billion USD $ bids, possibly during the summer.
This is a simple and reasonable analysis of the Merlin Project outcome. Selling XCD/Umiat leases leaves 88E intact with Central North Slopes and Yukon Gold.
Phrontist

rfarfa only room for broad terms here.
E.g. PB said it was possible for up to 3.6bbo from HRZ. This when we owned about one third of the Central North Slopes leases that we own today. I did not mention items like this, much work is needed to bring to fruition.
I read in a geology / chemistry paper that oily gas can be used to vitalise a bitumen well to produce normal oil flow.
A long shot at the moment....
Phrontist

Redirons
The company had come through many hard years of development. Now on the verge of significant growth and profit generation. I could see MC growth of adding a £1billion per year for 10 years and on.
I will have to check, but I think they got a 100% on what had been a degraded SP. But that was the last 37% of the shareholders following announcement of the 63% control.
So up to then, many shareholders were unaware that a team of individuals were buying up the shares.
The master mind was Abramovitch.....
Phrontist

12:48
I am sure DW will have the last laugh....
Meanwhile it is '4 dusters and a gusher'
Icewine 1, Icewine 2, Winx-1, Charlie-1
Just as Four Weddings and a Funeral....
Though really, Four Funerals and a Wedding sounds better!
In fact, no 88E Drill Programs are 'dusters', this is the wrong impression.
They all found oil, quite a bit of oil.
Icewine-1 was successful, not a 'duster' anyway.
Icewine hit a 'bitumen problem' and would not flow.
Winx found oil, but under/mixed with too much water, and low rock porosity.
Charlie was terminated much too quickly by PMO, but has given the pointers to next Drills in 'A Region'
So lets say, '4 non-commercials and a commercial'
Phrontist

Mickey, I have suggested that 7 years in '88E oil exploration' is enough to damage anyone's health.
But since that comment a month ago, events have moved on.
Last year I watched (Internet screen shots of a process) an AIM £1billion MC gold mining company being forcibly taken Private. Shareholders did OK, following 10 years of building a business from scratch. Just on the verge of major and efficient gold production. And like magic, the company disappeared from the screen. No web site, no LSE Listing, no anything.)
XCD showed us how an ASX company can disappear into the jaws of a bigger operator.
Take a cohort of 'people', each builds up a substantial shareholding.
Then they all combine into a 'Financial Instrument' to buy up to 63%.
The rest of the 37% have to accept a reasonable offer.
Wallop, the company is gone into Private or other hands.
88E has been undervalued (low MC) because the once enthusiastic shareholders are weary and broke.
New blood comes in. And also a coordinated Buying Group.....
Phrontist

12:23
are you sure, do you really mean 'the fundamentals are shaky'?
Even though we have not succeeded with our first Oil Flow success, the fundamentals of 88E are truly amazing.

Harrier, Merlin, Umiat
Regions A, B and C of Central North Slopes conventional
Yukon Gold site with new extension from site going north into Prudhoe Bay itself
To the right, Canada 3rd largest oil producer in world, to the left Prudhoe Bay largest (was) oilfield in USA)
And finally, my firm belief in HRZ 'sweet spot', a massive unconventional CNS field

Deep pockets will get billions of barrels of oil from each.
On average, ha ha. We are still at preliminary stages of de-risking.
Each of the four is worth 10p to 25p per share.
I believe that over 5 to 10 years our favourite £1/share is likely.
But not in the form of 88E now. Someone will pounce, for sure.
Many foreign countries use government money to finance their Big Oil activities.
A nice big patch like 88E is 30 years of oil production.

Phrontist

DW? Reason to leave?
Well, he learnt a lot in the takeover process of XCD
That the BoD with 'friends' could force a takeover.....
Now perhaps he has to leave...
To enable another Private Group to carry out a Private Takeover of 88E....
Then in a year, sell on for 3 times the US bucks
Phrontist

Islandgirl, agreed.
Is a possible Heavenly-1 on the same formation as Pantheons Talitha? This is a very big deal for both Pantheon and 88Energy. Something Pantheon have been working on for many years.
Back to Merlin-1. If that flows, then Umiat to its South and Harrier to its North are also likely to oil flow too.
I only mention this to emphasize that Merlin-1 is the beginning not the end.
2.5p is quite realistic today, if not later during the week.
88E has enormous prospects ahead.
Phrontist

Only 30 mins into the day, 2p will soon be history.
My feeling is, DW has been cautious with the RNS.
Rightly so, with a week of tests ahead.
Then, if successful, an Oil Flow Test.
Our first one after 6 to 7 years.
Phrontist