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Https://open.substack.com/pub/stardriveinvesting/p/the-deep-space-greggs-diner?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1vkfsa

Https://open.substack.com/pub/stardriveinvesting/p/stargate-stellantis-cash-capitulation?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1vkfsa

Thanks, I've taken a similar stance with Domino’s too.

Https://open.substack.com/pub/stardriveinvesting/p/greggs-vs-glp-1-is-the-baker-falling?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1vkfsa

To clarify, I’m not betting on growth or a squeeze I’m betting on stability.

If earnings simply hold, elevated short interest increases the speed at which valuation can normalise as shorts unwind.

In the meantime, the approx 4% dividend gives me carry, with a payout around the mid 40% range, last Q4 wasn't that bad IMHO

Fair challenge, I’m not suggesting zero growth automatically equals a P/E of 15.

My anchor is based on the idea that a mature, stable, inflation linked consumer business with no structural earnings decline often trades somewhere in the low-to-

mid teens.

If I assume required returns of roughly 8–9% and long-term nominal growth of 0–2% (from pricing/inflation rather than expansion), that broadly supports a mid-teens multiple using simple Gordon-type logic.

If Greggs showed structural earnings weakness, loss of pricing power, or declining returns on new stores, I’d expect the fair multiple to compress closer to 12–13.

On short interest I agree it’s elevated and could mean continued volatility and negative narrative pressure. But high short interest alone doesn’t determine long-term fair value unless the underlying business economics are deteriorating. ( I originally wrote the article back in October)

The JPM TR-1 is also worth noting most of the exposure is via swaps rather than physical shares, which can just as easily reflect hedging or structured exposure rather than directional conviction.

My thesis is simple: I don’t need growth to justify value I just need earnings stability and cash generation to hold.

Https://open.substack.com/pub/stardriveinvesting/p/greggs-the-unlikely-guardian-of-the?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1vkfsa

Https://open.substack.com/pub/stardriveinvesting/p/if-this-was-a-falling-knife-the-pizza?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1vkfsa

Https://open.substack.com/pub/stardriveinvesting/p/the-relx-reversion-play-when-headlines?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1vkfsa