Member Info for Phoebus

Hell, if we're still at a discount in the throws of alt seaon I'll contact Elon myself.

If you're stressed best to take Blonity's advice from yesterday which roughly translates as switch off and go play some golf.

Indeed. Had a dream last night that Elon made a bid for KR1. With many entities wanting crypto exposure, any discount here would make this a sitting duck.

Yet in 2 months we've only managed to grind away 3 day's worth of gains.

including ATOM up 15% to £24.4M.

Agree 100% Tymers. It's sad, but that's how it works. Looking at the ARB chart, we first reached this price on Feb 15 and three sessions later hit the high of 340p ... three! If sophisticated entities want to get hold of a huge number of shares one of the best ways to do it is roof the SP very rapidly and then grind it lower, which is exactly what has happened. I expect the snap back will be epic.

We've had the same rumor for years and yet crickets. Did you hear the CIA rip the crypto naysayers a new one the other day? They were very positive on it and paraphrasing said that the role of crypto in criminal activities is massively overstated and that the US should embrace it so as not to get left in China's wake in this important technological field. Say no more. Also, if negative rumors were frightening the market, cryptos would be crashing and not hitting new ATHs. We have a case of finite crypto investor cash chasing big moves. At the moment it's crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Binance. A few weeks ago it was NFTs and before than miners. As one surges the others reset, just like the altcoins and BTC. It will be our turn in the ejector seat again soon enough.

There is no company specific reason whatsoever IMO. Profit taking, panic selling plus deliberate take down to accumulate shares ahead of next leg and likely NASDAQ listing. Stocks overshoot and undershoot. Right now we're undershooting big style. You know what comes next. Tick tock.

Would be great if they were short big style and then Elon made a TO offer at $10. Would serve the sewer rats right.

Well said. I calculate that 100p would be a PE of around 4 at the current BTC price or a comedy gold PE of 2.5 at BTC $100K.

From the retailers to the institutions.

According to a poster comment on yesterday's Blonity video, 'Frank Holmes from HIVE interview from a week ago states that he expects to get approval from the SEC for a NYSE or Nasdaq listing at the end of Q2 or early Q3.'

I feel certain we are also listing on NASDAQ and sooner rather than later. IMO this will be the making of many investors on here so long they haven't been bullied out of their positions. I'm sure institutions are itching to get their hands on ARB shares ahead of the listing by hook or by crook. When stocks list on NASDAQ they tend to come in at lofty valuations, so what PE ratio would you expect for a tech stock on NASDAQ listing? 20? 25? 30? Definitely not a PE of under 5 that we appear to be sat on based on BTC $100K or even 7 based on the current BTC price.

I have the stingiest baseline NAV metric at 159.3p for KR1 today (trading investments at mark to market and other assets at book value) up from 155p yesterday. Marking unlisted crypto positions at x10 book, equity stakes at x2 book and 3 months of staking at 12% I get 177p. So assets up again and price down. Strong and stronger investment case as ETH hits new ATH and 10 of KR1's top 12 holdings are up nicely.

Yes. Quite farcical price action here. Seems there has been a stop hunt right across the crypto sector the last 48 hours as BTC and ETH soar to new ATHs. Very counter intuitive. Almost feels like a coordinated play to pick up shares before a major leg higher by causing as much psychological stress as possible amongst investors. KR1 is particularly ridiculous with some 'investors' selling below NAV today as ETH soars despite buying at a 100% premium only a few weeks ago. Underlying crypto performance is stellar and punters are running for the hills. Utterly insane. This has to be some of the most bizarre market behavior I've witnessed in over a decade of investing.

'Defo below 100.'

Defo a knucklehead comment. At 100p this would be on a PE of about 3.5.

DOGE coin doubled in 2 days. Perhaps some cash moved there too for a quick profit. Wait till it floods back.

Total funds invested in DeFi hits new record.
https://defipulse.com/

ETH soaring to new ATHs this evening.
https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/deribit/ethperpetual

Level headed and positive update from Blonity. Cash switching from miners to Coinbase for IPO and mining fundamentals getting better and better. Think like a whale.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voURIv9W-_U

When we were at 240p per share in Feb I calculated the portfolio of trading assets plus book value of other assets to be around 120p. Currently with a share price of 165p I get the same calculation to be around 155p. So whilst the value of our portfolio has increased by around 30%, our SP has dropped by 30% taking us from a premium of 100% to a premium of around 6% which is frankly ridiculous, particular with cryptos looking so strong.

It should also be noted that this valuation omits several key factors. 1) The non floating token positions seem to be hitting the market at significant multiples (x20 or much more) of book cost so it seems unreasonable not to factor some of this in. I think x10 book cost is fair and this gives £17.9M. 2) Similarly book cost for equity stakes in crypto companies in the middle of the bull market also seems too stingy and at a mere 2 times gives £1.3M. 3) The token positions used to calculate the NAV ignores the fact that the number of coins held is increasing due to staking. Last time I checked the average portfolio yield was 12%. If we assume 6 months of staking has taken place and that half of those additional token have been sold that gives a total of around £6M in additional tokens. Add this all together and I get a valuation per share of 172p at present.

We also need to account for the following factors which while not affecting the NAV will strongly encourage investors to pay above assets value for KR1. 1) Investors are anticipating significant gains in altcoins over the next few months particularly DeFi and Internet 3.0, which is exactly where KR1 is focused. 2) KR1 is one of only a tiny number of mechanisms globally for equity investors to gain exposure to such assets. 3) This is the only such vehicle that can be owned though a tax efficient ISA. Putting all this together it is my opinion that KR1 should be trading at a significant (25%-50%) premium to asset value at this stage in the crypto cycle which gives us a share price of 215p-258p at present. Remember markets are forward looking mechanisms.

Moreover, this is only one such valuation model. If we value KR1 based on a multiple of its staking yields we get much higher figures. Assuming a staking yield of around 12% and a multiplier of 20 we should get a valuation of around 372p.

Given the changes in portfolio valuation and SP over the last few months KR1 currently looks to be the most undervalued for some time. With BTC and ETH roofing it hitting all time highs only today and crypto sentiment high this makes little sense and KR1 looks a really excellent buy at these levels.

GLA

Assuming we mine 2250 BTC this year, at the current BTC price that amounts to sales of around $141M and suing the March margin of 84% gives a profit of around $119M. According to Google 'Coinbase turned strongly profitable last year, more than doubling revenues from $483 million to $1.14 billion and lifting operating profits from a $45 million deficit to $409 million.' Ratio of earnings is $409M for Coinbase to $118M for ARB or about 4:1. Coinbase apparently has already touched $340 per share today, which I believe equates to a market cap of $88.4B. Divide that by 4 gives market cap of $22.1B for ARB or well over £40 per share!

I wonder how they managed to get hold of truck loads of Argo shares? Hmm ...