GENL comparison reality check7 Apr 2021 19:05
1p would be a market cap of £130M and well over $10 per barrel for the Basur-Resan drill target on a P50 basis which is ridiculous. If you think that's BS look at GENL as a benchmark comparison.
GENL is operating in exactly the same area as UKOG's Turkish drill and UKOG's own presentation even points out some of GENL's fields on one of the maps. Unlike UKOG GENL is a much more developed oil company with 7 discoveries in the region of which 4 are already producing a total of nearly 32,000 barrels per day net to GENL. Moreover GENL already has total 2P/2C reserves and resources of 2,420 MMB which is around x150 the size of the lower category prospective resources UKOG is targeting with Basur-Resan drill.
If we take GENL's current market cap of $657M subtract current assets and add total liabilities we get an EV (enterprise value) of around $875M, which means GENL's current share price values its 2P/2C reserves and contingent resources at only $0.36 per barrel and that's for a highly developed oil company with big production. That's a far cry from $10 per barrel being touted on here or even the $2.34 (likely around $5 risked) UKOG is already pricing in at the current SP for Basur-Resan.
UKOG's P50 figure of 19.6 MMB is for the whole Resan licence including Prospect A. If we adjust the Basur-Resan P-mean figure pro rata with the whole licence we get a figure of 16.03 MMB P50 net to UKOG for the Basur-Resan drill target. At $0.36 per barrel that is only £4.2M net to UKOG.
Do I think the market cap should only add £4.2M in the run up to the drill? Of course not, but nor does common sense suggest it should reach anywhere near some of the pie in the sky figures being paraded here. Sadly some newbies will never learn.