Member Info for philpot1001

Well I gambled the sentiment would change today.... it hasn't, all markets are looking like going sour. I just sold off my Friday stake and some more at a loss , but I'm starting to get spooked with the stocks. To be clear not particularly with GFRD, but FTSE 100 and 250 as a whole. I understand the amefican markets correcting, but the infection of the UK markets seems nuts to me, we still have QE impacts, significant rate rises are looking unlikely, and you can hardly argue the UK based stocks are high!!

Although general market drops are also a risk with one eye on the DOW.... that applies to all shares though not just GFRD

As far as I can tell once the Aberdeen bypass is out of the way, the only risks here are if TM pulls PIF contracts and brings them back in house (unlikey) or if Corbyn gets in power an does likewise.i could understand the collapse in SPs if either were on the horizon, but at present seems like negative speculation going on to me. Others like Capita with debt mountains are an obvious current risk.

Already in with BT, decided not to top up there and went in here instead .... I cashed out everything today I was in profit with as everything seems downwards at the mo.

It's a fair call DE, I only added a grand with the philosophy it's over 10% lower than my last stake , plus a 9% divi helps mitigate. BBY took a similar tumble today, but KIER held steady

FWIW I've gambled the results are going to be ok and everyone will start to come to their senses next week so I took a top up at 1042.5p

If results are in line with expectations this is now kicking out over 9% yield in dividend

I'd agree with all that darkelf unfortunately. I think it's a little unfair as CLLN was sent down due to a massive toxic debt pile which we don't have, plus the Aberdeen contract was our only toxic loss maker which should be out of the way soon..... onwards and upwards after that final legacy contract closes hopefully.

Are you in here darkelf? Got any thoughts?

Hi darkelf, yes I'm.a holder. I sold out at 1280p (I think lol) in a bit of profit and started buying back in about 1180p...my last top up was at 1140p. I believe GFRD has a strong business and once this Aberdeen crap is behind them will show strong result.... question is can i free up cash to top up, and million dollar question - at what price to top up!!? The market appears to still be taking this down.... see what tomorrow brings.

have all followed each other near exactly over the past 5 days in an equal pattern downwards......the funny thing is ALL of them have a 100% broker rating of strong buy! Market isn't agreeing at the minute though, needs a strong underlying result from GFRD in coming weeks to turn this around I think

Haha thought I was being thick for a while ;)

Not sure where the 20 mil profit comes from? Had a look at the 2016 annual accounts and they had 125.1 mil total underlying profit? Assuming that tames a 50% hammering works out at 62.5 mil ?

"Probably finishing on time".... stupid phone lol

My guess is the 40m being the upper band prices in the delayed finish, the 30m lower estimate is prob a my finishing on time...... but that's a guess

Hi Londoner, no that 40m was from A news article, from memory financial times? Fits in with the RNS and a 50/50 split with Balfour.

I think the only hidden skeleton here is the aberdeen bypass, I think the uncertainty on the finish date there has given the shorters confidence to tree shake..... once we get that out of the way it should be upwards, but that could be june / July from the rumours I'm seeing..... unless they state in Feb results it's unlikely to further financially degrade on top of the 40m hit already priced in, then it should rise from that point.

Depends PAKKA.... been looking at short levels and they have ticked up another 0.1%. So I feel it's them shaking the tree again - they cause the initial blip down and then sit back and watch as PI's panic and sell. So it all depends if the shake the tree again, were currently sat on resistance so if they don't it should lift, back up to 1110p .... if they do shake the tree could see 1050p. Again to note, these figures are based on gut feel , I'm no chartist.

This is bouncing around like a pinball! Makes picking an entry point v difficult

Still looking on a downward channel to me, other house builders are up today on the back of house price acceleration news, so the negative momentum must be down to the construction / legacy side of things.