Member Info for philpot1001

Thanks JK and CJ 6 month high season, I'll take that with a pinch of salt as I'm guessing this is a transient seasonal effect.... bodes well for this year though if true. Looks like the company is seriously looking to develop though! Exciting times

Cheers Jim that makes sense

thanks Jim. Can you explain the CAPEX to me, im not sure I understand financing on asset basis? Are they proposing to sell off rights to oil capacity or something? Sorry for being stupid. Regarding reduced OPEX, is that due to the further wells being drilled and greater volume, or are they saying AJE-4 and AJE-5 volumes will potentially be increased......sorry if you don't know the details, just thought id see. Many thanks again for the debrief

Hi Bermo, we made some comments on the report if you wind this chat back a page or so. I wouldn't say there was anything eye popping in it regarding AJE, other than it looks as though we "could" be seeing 6m in annual revenue (although that involves some extrapolating of figures). Production is steady at 3300 BOPD for the JV and doesn't look like moving in the near term. Regards PEN share price, almost all the gains there were made in the run up to the results - after the results its remained flat. I would probably say their results got priced into their SP in the weeks prior, and everyone is fairly satisfied with what they saw.

PS FWIW, if you are a newbie to investing, my advice would be to keep high risk shares like AIM to a small fraction of your total invested, I guess typically something like 30% of your holdings or less. Also with AIM IMHO you have to be above all patient, these shares can trundle along for ages and do nothing, then in a matter of hours shift 40%+ (upwards or downwards!). It can be very frustrating, ive been in here for almost a year underwater.....if the SP spikes, my patience has been worth it (as I have a low average).....if it doesn't ive been gullible. Time will tell.

got my target lined up, in case the ask drops to my required level and ill top up.....transferring shares from the impatient to the patient.

our conclusions at present are liquidity generated by the 500k cash call, I think the 500k has just about been covered now (correct me if im wrong here peeps), so from now on (ish) the SP movement should return to normal. quite what it takes to get this moving upwards again is a puzzle to me too hinkey, I think the forward plan in the .ppt looks pretty good to me (caveat id like to know what the costs are), CPR should be interesting in a few weeks, then we have to wait until results (June I think). Hopefully one of (or more) those events puts a rocket up the SP, but who knows.

any prediction of an SP is speculation whether its AIM or FTSE, anyone that tells you anything else is living in a dream land. Sometimes you get it right, sometimes you don't. However with the release of the recent information, I would say we have a much clearer picture of where we are now, and where the plans for the future are - the CPR in a few weeks will fill in some missing pieces. At the end of the day its up to each investor to decide look at the information at hand and decide whether to walk, or stay in / get in and wait for the good days.....pays your money takes your choice, but its your choice and no one elses.

its worth noting on the Tullow -TEN field, I got this slightly wrong. they have 11 wells ATM, producing 56,000 BOPD. So that averages 5090 BOPD / well. So we are quite a way down from that at AJE. Is this because of inexperience on the drilling front, or just a weaker oil field? the CPR should tell us I guess. is it worthwhile them getting in specialist drillers, will cost more I guess, but if it doubles the output its got to be worth it? Not sure, just throwing it out there.

probably because im invested hinkey - otherwise it would be 2p ;o)

the development plan shows 1 more horizontal well coming in 2019 and 6 more in 2020, along with the 2 we have now, a total of 9 wells by 2020 / 2021 in theory, 6 of which will be producing gas as well as oil.

I missed this tooold, "PPAL would not pay for any Aje-6 costs that have been incurred by the JV, until such time as the equipment and parts are to be used in any potential future well operations;" what's the take home from this then, PEN are refusing to pay towards AJE-6 until work is actually performed with the parts? Are they referring to work carried out on AJE-6, or using the AJE-6 spare parts for the development wells discussed in the presentation. hmmm. From discussions on here, my understanding of the rhetoric is AJE-6 is a write off, so im guessing the parts are to be used for the development of other wells.

couldn't find too much in there, other than mention of steady flow at 400 BOPD for them (equivalent to 3300 BOPD JV). There was a mention of a report on workover of AJE-5, with a report on that due in Q2 2018 "Panoro is in the process of updating its independent reserves report for Aje with AGR TRACS International. This update will include results of the Aje-5 workover and side-track drilling campaign in the Cenomanian reservoir, the subsequent completion of the Aje-5 side-track in the Turonian oil rim, and the production history from the field to date. Details of the updated report will be made available in the second quarter of 2018."

we also now have timescales, so they are expecting to implement the gas well in 2020 (lets assume some delays / issues, so active by 2021). Gives us 3 years to see the fruits of oil pumping at "full flow" (whatever rat that turns out to be), and gas taps on too.

if im honest, im not expecting any great revelations tomorrow now SO has coughed up the info. My expectation is a confirmation of the 3300 BOPD, obviously if its gone up for some reason or the costs come down then im happy. At least we have some of the development plan in that presentation, and so have some kind of vision of what they are expecting. I can see why institutional investors have coughed on based on that (assuming it actually ends up looking like the plan in the end). The only thing we don't have is the expected costs to develop all these new wells and infrastructure.

Sorry I meant @ 34 doll cost and 29 doll barrel cost. Having a senior moment

I think that could put us at maturity (after 2020) anywhere in the range of 11,000 BOPD @43 doll/barrel cost - 20,000 BOPD @ roughly 39 doll/ barrel cost, plus the gas as well. Obvs these are fag packet estimates. I guess the real key is what's the development cost required to get to this stage, but the figures look tempting.

just been going over the presentation again, and I think theres more detail in that than weve given credit for (assuming im reading it right). A) the horizontal well in Q1 19 is specifically for oil (page 9 "an initial horizontal well development of the oil rim significantly boosting oil production rates)" B) 6 further wells in 2020, these will be for the gas production (as well as oil increases) seemingly feeding a floating oil processing platform as well as the FPSO Page 9 & 10. although I believe this is subject to approval in a final investment decision Q4 18 (page 10).

well that kind of tallies with my scaling, although as they have RNSd lowering of costs I had expected previous costs to be higher hahahaha. But what you say does agree with the production curve shown in the presentation regarding a recent drop off in production. Would be really nice if they could get back up to 11,000 bpd and those costs - although not sure how possible that is with our current wells. Maybe with the additional horizontal well coming in 2019?

Having said that, every penny counts, and if they do drill more wells and let's say add 5000 BOPD that could save 2-3 dollars of cost...... it's also potentially possible that other factors other than volume have an impact on cost that I've not taken into account which affect the scaling. Does anyone know what the original costs per barrel were? If it was say 42 dollars a Barrel that ties in with my figs, if it was say 50 dollars a Barrel it implies they are doing something else which had a bigger impact on running costs.