RE: Good News5 Dec 2018 20:49
I still don't think the remaining Major, probably Exxon, will be interested in watching Fronterra develop the field bit by bit. I don't think Zaza is interested in this either. Conversations would likely have been had on this. Exxon has deep pockets so can go straight in with a buyout offer for the whole of FRR once they know the full extent of the reserves it has, oil & gas. At a guess conversation probably went along the lines of 'We know what this field is likely to yield, we know what sort of settlement will satisfy you (around going market rate for a largely undeveloped field with large reserves) We just need the final part of the results from current frack job once that's in we'll take it from there'.To which the reply was probably, 'Great, we want out so that suits us as well'.
That's my reasoning anyway, looking at the situation and moves to date logically thinking it through would suggest such a scenario. Outrider, YA is off no consequence to a company like Exxon it's all talk about spare change to them. They will happily put to bed such issues without need for thought. In any case FRR is pursuing the claim against Outrider so it looks they can only stand to gain, worst case scenario is a few legal bills of no significant nature.
Given the last RNS I'm guessing it will take them a few days to clean the wells then a few days to check well integrity. On top off that perhas a couple of weeks to frack. No drilling or pipe is needed so that will save them time. So perhaps 3-4 weeks or so then results to finish. So probably I'm guessing a preliminary result maybe late December and further results late Jan, early Feb. Probably major will want the six week result just to be sure of reserves before possibly submitting a buyout bid.
So we may be a lot closer on a payout on this one than we might think on this one. This is of course all guesswork but this is what I see as making logical sense of the situation and company announcemens to date.