Member Info for Phil_2018

True, it is probably unlikely to find the right staff locally in fairly remote and underdeveloped areas for the more technical operations needed. The statement did say that it was just security guards and no oil production though perhaps this was an overstatement. So possibly stuff might still be happening. Salary expense would be less if just sitting on our hands though it appears we were'nt paying that any way. Either way getting a decision from the Arbitration as soon as possible appears to be key here. Let's hope we can go whatever distance remains on that one and that it will come soon.

So basically the oil field is no longer being worked and is sat there redundant since about 17th December. So at the moment we are simply left with a lot of resources in the ground and are awaiting decision from the Arbitration on who can exploit it. To my mind the value here was always in what was in the ground being proven and then sold on to a Major by FRR. It now looks like we are just sitting it out waiting for the finish line of getting a positive result from Arbitration. Hopefully that finish line won't be too far off since I don't know how long FRR can sit there like a sitting duck before it succumbs to all the expenses.

We previously heard that the 20th February was the date from the Arb for final fees and summary to be submitted. I surmised that the Arbitration/situation may then be wrapped up in/by March. Has there been any further news from the Arbitration as to when the final decision may be?

That delay likely can't do us any harm, with a bit of luck we will be getting a hopefully positive outcome from the Arbitration by then. Possibly though it might not be here nor there that much as the main stuff in the Hope case seems to happen towards the end of this year anyway.

I don't reckon it's likely that it goes that deep that they are all in on it together. More likely they each are just out for themselves. Hopefully this will all be resolved soon with the completion of the Arbitration, in a positive way for us we hope.

Looks to me that they would pay the legal team for the Arbitration first and not too bothered about paying the legal teams on the Hope case. We know that the Cayman legal team were left chasing for payment. This tells us a lot that FRR see the Arbitration as the main scene while the Hope case is just to keep him at bay/less important so long as they can keep kicking the can down the road on it.

A lot of all this Georgian PM stuff seems perculiar to me. It sounds like he was making a stab at claiming the field for himself but has since back down, depending if something that substantial was happening. I know it can be a bit inherent in their society out there to try and grab if you can. Odds are being faced with Russian tanks invading en-masse after a US pull out because of an ally treating them unfairly probably brought him around rather quickly, lol. If the Russians invade due to a lack of US presence then the Georgian PM, etc would see none of that oil or gas.

With the final Arbitration fee submission & statement due on the 20th Feb I think it was all this stuff should hopefully get sorted soon, hopefully in a decent way to FRR.

That's present assets, this asset was already transferred. The liquidators won't be able to affect anything in the patent company including a buyout. In the instance of a buyout the asset will still be where it presently is but FRR will be owned by BP, Exxon, or whoever. They'll settle up anything there is to settle up with Hope anyway.

My assumption is that even if the transfer wasn't legal, long before it can be taken through the courts to get a transfer back done all of this will be long over. So it's no longer of any real relevance as someone said the liquidators have to go through it for procedure to at least look at what was transferred.

If FRR get anything decent after the Arb then my other assumption is that with all that's going on Zaza will already have a pending deal lined up with at least one major. Doesn't make any sense for Zaza to linger on that as there is only a timeframe of a matter of months before all the Hope/Outrider stuff comes up. No better deal is likely by waiting so to my mind it looks like the only way it will work.

The Arbitration outcome is still an unknown to us. It looks like an offer was made from the GG and that could mean they may have been told that they are unlikely to get what they are claiming. The US seem to be putting pressure on Georgia to play ball with US companies or face the consequences. My only hang up would be from an idiotic verdict from the arbitrators if they end up going on legal twaddle rather than a reasonable resolution.

I agree Tsbs, it can't be right after finding all that oil & gas and spending all that money doing so. Yet courts can give unjust and unfair verdicts based solely on what the agreements were. That I do not see as justice but it can happen.

I'm rather hoping there is more going on here and a couple of minor divergences from the agreement are not seen as considerable enough to amount to the GG claim what they believe they can claim under the agreement.

Certainly if the GG think they can stiff a company then still expect investment I think they are sorely mistaken. In addition riskas has been put it may put US willingness for involvement in Georgia at risk. That will leave Georgia to the mercy of the Russians. The US won't want to help out a country that displays anti competitive practices and is against US companies. That couldn't be more clear than under Trump, he will quite happily leave them to face the music from Russia if they chose to not play ball.

That said the ability of any court to come up with bullsh*t nonsensical unbalanced verdicts knows no bounds. If we have made a deal with the GG that is likely much better as otherwise my fear is that such a bs verdict may come down against FRR.

I would rather fear that we get some bad news out of the Arbitration as a final judgement. Possibly news that is damning to the company that finishes it off.

I personally think the best thing to do would be for all sides to get together, agree that all are entitled to a fair slice of the pie rather than one side trying to be greedy and nab it all and work out an agreement. To my mind the GG will still need someone to work the field and pump the oil so that might as well be FRR. Better for all sides to get on with the job rather than be stuck with a gas & oil field that produces nothing despite the apparent resources there.

The article seemed to restate the original claims by either party but no mention of agreements reached so far under the Arb if there are any. To date it look like FRR & the GG had formed a joint company and news articles seemed to back this up. In addition Zaza apparently reported to journalists that just the length of the PSA remained past 2027.

This article appears to be recent but I do wonder if the source representing the GG is holding back and not wanting to give away details of any progress/agreement already made to avoid any chance of putting his foot in it due to potential sensitivity of the situation. If not then this then by this source very little progress has been made and it's all down to the verdict of the Arbitration. That would be a situation I would not relish as the claim by the GG puts a lot at state. Quite frankly that they wish to take back the area after oil has been discovered and the hard work and money spent is quite ludicrous, little more than vilians. I can't see anyone wanting to deal with them if they go down that path they will scare off all outside investment.

Still a case of sit and wait for the actual outcome to be announced it seems.

Difference here is that fracking technology is releasing oil from old commercial wells previously thought exhausted rather than finding new resources. If it were not for this technology we would probably be starting to run low on these resources globally even with new field discoveries.

I've no doubt Russia wants to dismiss findings of oil since it undermines its power in the region. It's no doubt true that in the past some have come to none but fracking has changed all that.

I believe we are likely near a breakthrough with the official completion of the Arbitration soon to be done, we hope. To my mind the only logical course of action for FRR is to have a buyout or similar primed ready for immediate action on completion of the Arbitration. On a buyout such a company such as BP or Exxon will take over the OMF debt which they will have no trouble sorting out. We all as shareholders including Zaza & SN, etc will get a good return on our investment, job done :) Sheer logic tells us there would be little point carrying on, the field will have been proved up so that is all that is needed. There is no point doing the whole Hope court action later in the year, BP, Exxon or whoever will take over that and either press the case or settle, most likely settle as it's of little money to them.

So to my mind this is almost a fixated event and it makes no sense to do otherwise. Even getting out a new loan would be messing around, it might happen but with the field proved up I can't see why a Major wouldn't be very keen and for us little reason to press on with a company juggling the debt whilst trying to develop the field at too slow a rate.

Odds are this could all happen around March time with completion of the Arb.

A strange development, so two new companies have been set up with Frontera's name but not part of Frontera.

The idea that this might be to go forth with a venture offshore is an interesting one. I guess they might be wanting to keep that one to themselves and go off the back off their past knowledge gained.

The last we knew was that the GG was going in with FRR in a 50/50 joint venture company. So I can't see how these two new companies run by Zaza's son would fit in if it were some kind of dodgy as they are 100 percent owned by him. It seemed like the GG had already got to a deal with FRR. So I'm not sure what this is? Anyone got any idea of how further information might be gained to get a better insight into what these new companies are about?

So it's looking like Star was right that it was not bs and Frontera are looking at $46m debt and no doubt defaults. That is not good on the surface of it. However it reckon it must mean that Zaza, etc are on the same page as us. Basically get a deal done on the Arb and then either sell on quick or get a refinance deal done on much better terms.

To my mind Zaza would be looking at getting a deal done as soon as the Arb is finished as he doesn't really have any other choice. He can't just go and follow through with the Hope case on a gamble of winning as the oil revenue/profit is not going to be able to pay Hope's debts. At the very least if he continues the case Zaza would have to get a loan in advance to cover what is owed to Hope.

It may be that the replacement loan as noted in the RNS before we lost the Nomad was held back pending the outcome of the Arb. This would make sense as I could see no finance company wishing to give a bug loan to a company that had a claim against its oil producing field by the GG. Much the same for any Major buy in/out which was probably why BH involvement was agreed as a practical way forward until the Arb was sorted.

So while the $46m may sound like a lot, if we get a deal or decent loan to cover it following from the Arb then it pails in comparison to the value of the field. If it did not then Zaza would just walk as there would be no point carrying on. Odds are that either a loan and/or a deal with a Major has already been agreed. That or interested Majors are perhaps likely being kept in the loop so they can get an agreement done quickly with Frontera as soon as the Arb is complete. To me this is the only thing that makes sense, that a deal is soon to be done to sort this mess right after arbitration.

Personally unless there is some real smoking gun we don't know about chances are the case against Hope and the $56m claim on him is just a pipe dream, more likely a clever manouerve to keep a greedy vulture at bay than something that Frontera can substantiate in court.

I don't mean a buyout necessarily, but at least an outcome from the Arb that we can move forward and towards some sort of buyout/payout which of course may wrap up the Hope business. Anyone here think this is feasible?

The final submission for fees and statements for the Arb is due in February so thereby my thought is that it could all be wrapped up by March.

So this could stuff about a $46m loan seemingly sounding like possible bs then.

If true it would look like it would be extortionately high payback, lol.

Whatever the case it seems like the Arb is the key to getting this thing sorted and a deal made with the GG. Then all these difficulties with Hope, hopefully, won't matter. Probably why he didn't like it the court stuff being put off to late in this year. By then all the Arb wrapping up stuff should be said and done.

$46m how can that be, I thought the whole OMF loan notes was only $20. Where does the $46m come from?

I think some good points have been made here. As Arsenal said getting Hope of the BOD was no doubt a likely potential positive for dealing with the Arbitration case and for the company itself. Hopefully the GG sees the arbitration more as a instrument for negotiation with FRR than a fight with FRR for total control. It could well be that the GG needs someone to get the oil out and sees one company much the same as the next so isn't to bothered with which company does it just that they can get a decent cut of the cake.

The court dates being push out to later this year may seem to be frustrating to us who just want it done but it's likely better for us particularly if Hope is so against it. The main thing for us appears to be the Arb and the court dates being moved way back gives plenty of breathing space to deal with that. Theoretically if the GG did take it all then Hope would get nothing, so it's not good news for him, lol, nor of course us. I don't think it will go that way as it looks like matters have moved past that and a deal has been pretty much done.

It could all go south but in general I'm thing the longer Hope can be put off the more chance it allows FRR to become stronger.

Having seen the stuff we've got wind of over the past year I think Zaza is doing the best he can to get FRR & us through this and probably doing well doing it. It seems to be a difficult situation and I can see why now that unfortunate as it was to us that there was communication silence with us finding out stuff unofficially after it happened. With a bit of luck a decent confirmed deal to FRR under Arb will be the turning point we need in all of this.

OneDayRodney, the seeming change to not wanting to settle the case is interesting. It could be that some money has come through or maybe FRR has got the upper hand. My main thought is that the new lawyers they hired might have been convinced by FRR of a deal having been done on the Arb with the GG and the lawyers on looking at it judged it to be sound that they would end up getting paid. Aside from this it could also be that they needed the Hope case to go on longer as the final wrapping up of the Arb went on longer than thought. I think whatever the case there probably isn't a negative in it for FRR, well I hope at least not.

Thing is it may well be that stuff is written in the contract that support the original GG argument. That said their are realities of the GG needing someone to get the oil out. If a deal has been done on the lines of logical reasoning by both sides then that might offer the best resolution to the ARB and could make sense to most concerned.

Apparently the one remaining issue is the length on extension to the PSA. From all we have heard I get the impression the taking back 99 percent of the block threat is no longer, at least I hope it is not, that would not leave FRR with anything worthwhile I would imagine. At the end of the day they need someone to drill & pump the oil out so coming to a deal with FRR makes sense.

I can't really see FRR whisking $2 million from somewhere to pay Hope unless they have been saving it up and not paying the workers. I would imagine that would rely on the completion of the arb, either with money coming in their, allowing FRR to get a Major on board or just making access to new loans preferably at decent rates available.