Member Info for phil01

I suppose that puts paid to the erroneous assumption that every OEM that uses Qualcomm will be using SEE DMS.
Was however surprised that Cipia won this for a 2024 start of production car. Going by what PM said, I thought that the OEMs has cut it fine for 2024 production cars wirh repect to tge tine needed for development. I thus thought that their only option was to use Magna mirror based DMS in other to meet production timeliness.
SEE needs to start inking some contracts soon else we will fall into the all bluster and no substance bucket.

Well that was fun. Will be interested to hear what the apologists have to say. I have said my peace so no point rehashing it.
It appears that those persky Anericans are less inclined to throw their money at jam tomorrow than we are. Sobering thought for those that were clamouring for US listing at this stage. American companies report quarterly, you don't have to be profitable but you have to demonstrate clear progress each quarter else you will be hammered....no excuses. That is why they are the bastion of capitalism...emotional attachments don't come into it.
Well PM better have a much convincing set of slides and demonstratable path to profit in his 1-1 meetings in the coming weeks else they will give him short shrift. We over here may Ohhh and Ahhh at his words but across the pond he needs more substance.
We wait for the upturn, but as I have said to the annoyance of quite a few on this BB, he has not really delivered on much that he promised about a year ago. In PM own words, it is all about delivery, delivery, delivery. Neither have we fully capitalised on our first mover advantage in fleet. We may all say we don't really care about OEM fitment to buses and truck but only aftermarket, which sounds like sour grapes. A few months ago we were crowing that we are the only company bidding for sizeable OEM fitment since SEYE does not have an aftermarket offering and lo and behold they sign a contract for OEM fitment?
On a different note, I am glad to hear that I've has a plan hopefully his next plan will be how to convince the Americans of the value of the company, else what is the point in going.
There is great opportunity for this company, but it is only opportunity. Opportunity is not money in the bank, every company on earth is established because they see an opportunity. Capitalising on an opportunity is then simply about vision and delivery at the moment we have not delivered much.
Now I am going back to hibernation until something worthwhile happens.

I quite like the update by PM. He was measured and dialled down some of the moonshine being spouted by some on this BB. In short based on his views we are going in the right direction but when we will get there is really out of his control.
Breakeven may be 2024 or 2025, as stated by Ive this will depend on the time of ramp up of the key contracts already won, which he is expecting within the next 12 -18months.
Some of the fluff that has been circulating in the BB as if gospel truth:
..Mobileye has x millions of connection and they will be offering our DMS for those which will make us millionaires next week!
...Gen 3 mirrors to be used in Aftermarket!
..Magna will be manufacturing partner for Aftermarket products !

My key takeaway:
1. He level set expectations and busted a few myth that seems prevalent on the BB when some people add 2+2 and come out with the value 22.
2. Timeline can be stretchy so at least he kept well clear of providing clear timelines.
Patience needed and a grounded view. (For example GM increasing production does not really bring any value to the share price unless you can quantify the increase in the car trims that includes SEE DMS.)

isb1974,
Are you in the right BB, this will not do. You are talking like an investor and not a supporter. You shouldn't really look under the bonnet because that nice man told you that every thing is cushty.

If you listed so many broken milestone timelines for Martin Krantz, people will assure you that he is a charlatan that talks a good game but hardly delivers....at least not on the time he said he would.

Seeing-2020, so you are expecting that no revenue will be recognised for the Magna deal in H22023?

Irrespective, of what they recognise this FY23; $ 5.4M, or $11M , the point is still salient. Rather than getting bogged down in clutter, one should address the base point being made.
The fY23 forecast is about $53Mil before the magna deal:
If you only make $53 revenue when counting of additional money that was not part of the original forecast then you have missed your forecast. That is the point and not if it is $1 or $2.

If you recognise $5.4 M, then your Revenue to meet your initial forecast will need to be $(53 +5.4) Mill.
If you recognise $11 M, then your Revenue to meet your initial forecast will need to be $(53 +114) Mill.

May well be wrong but I do not see how they can recognised $5.4m for H1 23 and nothing for H2 F23. I expect a straight line recognition of this over whatever is the life of the payment.

Seeing-2020,
They recognised $5.4m for H1 2023, so I am assuming that they will recognise additional $5.4m for H2 2023.
I believe the loan is for 3 years but the upfront payments is immediate so recognisable over the year.

....Looking ahead the Gen 3 unit is expected in H1/FY24E which could lead to a significant inflection in sales growth with the product expected to align with existing telematics products and providers more closely and to be able to use them as a route To market......
We are all onboard with the statement above, the point is that we were promised that Gen 3 will be delivered this financial year which ends June 2023.
Now it seems to have be kicked down the road and some people on this BB seems to have got a collective amnesia and now championing H1/FY124 as magic date date? If H1/FY24 comes and we kick it further to Q3/FY24 the same people will somehow clear memory and grab unto Q3/FY24 because SEE cannot do any wrong. Funnily enough, it is the same people that has written umpteen post on this BB based on their expectation Gen3 before end of June 2022.

At what point do we as an investor expect to depend on the timelines given to us by our management and ask question or explanation if that changes? Or do we have an EPROM memory, management can just program it as they wish: erase and replace with new value of their choice at will.

NathanR999,

Good questions. Hopefully we get some answers to excite us.
For the H1, we already knew the figures as presented in the update, but I was expecting a bit more forward statements that will indicate progress.
Anything:
1 ... we are now working on xx RFQ's ( does no mean we will win it but at least investors will get a sense that they RFQ pipeline is growing]
2. NRE value growth ( which will point to potential future win to investors)
3. xxxx
Finally stating that you will meet the fY23 expectations is not really terrific performance, I will be expecting the company to significantly outstrip FY23 forecast. The FY23 forecast was made prior to the Magna cash injection, so you will have about $11Mill that will drop into revenue in the year from the Magna deal. I thus expected the FY23 revenue to be about $11 Mill ahead of forecast.

Unfortunately I seem to be the bearer of bad news today, but I am sure there is enough cheerleaders in the BB to pick out the good news where they see it.
From PM Town Hall statement, I inferred that 29,000 new supply of Gen 2 stock was expected Nov /Dec 2022.
Now Cenkos is stating that they only got stock of 1000 units in Dec 2022 and the rest will be delivered over the period to June 2023. [ I thought that because we were now hiring direct Guardian installers that we have so much stock available that we are struggling to get all those installed and depleted before Gen3 is introduced in the next few months]

PM also indicated that Gen 3 will be released this financial year. Cenkos is now stating that Gen 3 is expected in H1/FY2024.
Now if this deal with Mobileye is based on Gen3, then the earliest we will see this impacting results will be H2/FY24.

Hopefully I will come back to the board later today and will be cheered up by our normal team who will undoubtedly find positive slants.

Unfortunately, it takes a bit more for me to be excited.

Let me be first to call the elephant in the room, That was a damp squib!

Not much that we did not already know from the trading update, however there is not even any meat put on the bones to indicate clear progress.
Those that want me to be a cheerleader for SEE just because I am invested will not be pleased to hear me verbalise what most are thinking, ( see no evil). Unfortunately this is purely an investment for me and I call it as I see it without sentiment.
Will still come good since there are really essentially only two main players in the field, SEE and SEYE.
Maybe, my expectation was too much, but based on my expectation; the forward looking statement and meat on the bones I was expecting to be provided to the trading update of 22nd Feb falls way short.

If I had a dollar for each time investors come up with the News next week comfort blanket.
Not saying new won't come next week as if keep saying that then someday you will be right, even if the news is about a company going into administration.

We had the contracts news to be announced just before the London Town Hall presentation.with the Q1 KPI.
SEE must be holding back new to coincide with the Q1 KPI.
They have been working frantically behind the scene and must have signed umpteen contracts which will be announced for the CES 2023.
Ahh...these will be announced in time for Q2 update
Contract news will be announced for US Capital Day as they can't go to the capital day without news about contract wins!

If a director buys shares then it must be because he/she has inside knowledge of news which is eminent ...not withstanding the fact that if the management are ethical then they are not allowed to buy shares if they are in possession of any inside knowledge which may move the market. In fact, for a fast growing company like this, the window for Directors to buy shares in their own company is so limited that they have to be granted share options to compensate for that fact. { An explanation of one of the main reason why PM has not put his hand in his pocket to purchase shares, he more than any other director will have access to regular information on share moving information....Not that he does not believe is SEE but he is constrained by regulations, if he is an ethical man.}

News may well come tomorrow morning, but if there was a bookmaker making odds on the time investors grab onto a comfort blanket to help them cope .....I would probably make more money betting on that than investing in stocks.

Anyway, whether news comes tomorrow, next month, or by year end ..if you believe in your analysis then just sit back and relax. In SEYE or SEE , as an investor, you will make money as I believe the market will be carved up by the two companies and there is plenty of room for both. { This last bit is my personal view and not meant as an investment advice..... as they say shares can go down as well as up and you have to take personal responsibility for your investment , it goes up you: pat yourself on the back and if it goes down and you don't blame anybody}

Great find but disappointed that we are still at the proof of concept stage, which puts this a few years away from commercialisation.
I thought the proof of concept has been already demonstrated and was hoping for commercialisation announcements.

Hopefully the tie up with Collins is already at commercialisation stage.

I like how we only hear what we want to hear.
Mobileye said they are working with the best DMS system supplier ... we all heard that and jumping up and down about that. [actually he said they are working with the leading supplier]

Now to the answers and statement that we did not hear:
to the question: Is Mobileye exclusive to SEE for this implementation....? No it is not exclusive, we have other engagements with other companies and we are actually developing DMS for ourselves just to make sure that we can control all the details. Until you develop things yourself you are not sure that you have oversight of all the details.

Just for balance for those that are interested in the full facts rather than selected piece that seems to support my view.

Thomas,
I hope you are not getting your insider scoop from someone who has been let go by the company? Hardly going to give the company a ringing endorsement?
Having said that it is clear that the company needs funding , so I am just watching at the moment to see direction of travel.
Good tech, question is can they commercialise it. Not sure if the group has spread itself too thin.. so many subsidiaries (9 in total), each needing to be staffed so burning cash. I don't know much about the industry but can't help thinking it may have bitten off more than they can chew with so many subsidiaries and none making much money.

That is the third time they have reposted that add. Appears they may be having problem getting suitably qualified applicant for the role. Closing date for the initial posting was sometimes in Nov 2022.

Mat,
Agree with with error in initial contract award, but the sentiment still the same.

As for PM presentation regarding numbers from 2025, some think to forget one thing that PM stated clearly...He said ASSUMING that they keep wining at same rate. Difference between will and would which is reason Analyst are not attributing a value to what may or may not happen.

Sometime Pi in their eagerness try to put words in Paul's mouth especially when he is clear in what he states. If that presentation was in USA, it will contain a safe harbour declaration. ... Would does not imply will...it is conditional on all things being equal and stars aligning.
One thing that I respect SEE management about is that they are clear on assumptions, the only time he made a mistake by using the term imminent he has not lived it down.

Maplin,

If we do get Over $1Bill of contracts then the £1 per a share will be a reality. The problem is that the contracts are not being announced and currently we only have about $242 mill and when you consider that this is life time estimate ( about 6 years model lifetime), that makes it about $41Mil per year turn over from current booked auto...assuming linear extrapolation. The Fleet then need to do an awful lot of lifting to get us anywhere near that.
Now it is okay saying invest as if you were investing for ever, but unfortunately human beings do have a finite lifetime. Those that have plans to buy a yacht, I am sure will prefer to buy these at the time of their life when they don't have to board the yacht with a zimmer frame.
Another 7 years and I would look really odd riding a Harley

Appears that Gentex demonstrated their mirror based DMS/OMS at CES2023.
How good they are and if they are even ready to ship or just a proto type is anyone's guess. PM did say that it will take the competition at least a year to catch up.
https://www.gentex.com/products-technology/automotive/sensing
https://www.autonomousvehicleinternational.com/news/adas/gentex-displays-latest-automotive-technologies-at-ces-2023.html

I am not sure if people are just making statements for the sake of it:
........Eqtec revenue guidance foe 2022 is 300% larger than ITM power....

EQT also have also 15x more shares than ITM
ITM have close to £350Mil in the bank, giving them a few years runway at current rate while EQT is living on borrowed money.

EQT may be a good investment but the comparison to ITM is at best lazy and at worst disingenuous with intent to mislead, as it is comparing apples to oranges.