Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
isb1974,
You are probably right about setting myself up for disappointment. I am however going on the basis that it will take about 2year development cycle for a new car so the RFQ needs to be awarded sharpish for a 2024 car production.
My take on the wins by SEYE is that the FY2024 production RFQ are now being awarded at this late hour.
My assumption is that SEYE would not have got the entire 100% of outstanding 2024 production RFQ so ours must be imminent.
The timeline for award of any 2024 production car is almost over, (assuming a 2 year development cycle), so SEE is bound to announce their own wins soon.
No need for the current panic since SEYE has always been a stiff competitor and is bound to win their fair share of business.
I suppose the panic in this board is as a result of the false narrative that some people has peddled on this board that SEYE is a dead duck, so the fact that they have a big win took those that bought into that narrative by surprise ..hence panic stations.
If we were already aware that SEYE is a competitor that will win significant business then this will not panic you. For me this just signals the fact that FY24 production car RFQ are now being awarded and SEE is bound to get a slice of them, how much I will leave for others to speculate.
Personally I will be expecting SEE announcement of wins within the next 2 weeks.
Whatif18,
Has this been confirmed as FORD? If so then this becomes interesting, dual source or have they taken FOORD from us just as we are crowing about taking BMW from them.
I suppose as PM once said, just because you win today does not mean that you will win tomorrow. OEM will put out each new platform to tender via an RFQ and someone will win that, SEE, SMART or whoever else is bidding against the RFQ.
As I have said previously Smart Eye is not disappearing anytime some while some people may want to burry their head in the sand. We have a stiff competitor, the only good news is that both will make investors money.
We can try to tell ourselves that they are only winning small accounts, the fact is that they are winning and have announced several over the last few months while we have not announced any. If the OEMs have NDA that is stopping us announcing, then I imagine that it is the same for SEYE unless we are led to believe that the OEM have one rule for us and another for SEYE?
Some have pointed at the increase in open positions at SEE as a pointer to future business we are expecting....without any supporting information that is open to different interpretations. That may be interpreted as an indicator that we currently do not have all the features that OEM are looking for so we are in a race to develop them.
I am still fairly optimistic that SEE will come good if only because there is only two main options for OEM, SEYE or SEE and they will not allow a single source even if only as a supply chain risk management strategy.
Smarteye is definitely not going away, if i had acces to their stock I will have invested in both but I don't so I am only in SEE but that does not blind me to the fact that they do have o product offering which are being chosen by some OEM instead of us.
As for people whose life is made miserable that they call themselves King of DMS, for myself I will give them that, they are working with more OEMs, have more cars on the road etc. In future we may come to overtake them but I am not really fussed either way so long as SEE share price is trending up.
This Veoneer win does not include DMS. The graphics is the standard Veoneer graphics showing everything that Veoneer provides. the release clearly states what they have been tasked to deliver in this win: a package of an active safety system comprising of monovision camera, a package of forward-looking and corner radars, and an ADAS ECU.
Overall, the KPI is a bit disappointing.
Guardian sales none as a result of supply issues, but still disappointing, nonetheless. I was hoping we could have capitalised on our first mover advantage more. I hope we are not going to new potential customers and offering he system until the supply issue is sorted, as making a sale and not being able to deliver is not a good look for the company. May do more reputational damage further down the line if we are seen as not having the capacity or capability to deliver. In that respect I am glad that the sold and not connected volume is not growing at a fast pace.
Cars on the road Q1 FY23 is just about 112K, which is less than the Q1 FY22 figure of 183.5K. I was hoping that for a significantly greater number this financial quarter than the equivalent quarter last year, especially since we had a serious chip supply issue last year.
Maybe the current economic environment is affecting car manufacture. [ I believe we are paid for all cars off the production line with our tech whether it has been sold or not: Paints a different picture for all those that has been posting about car manufacturing numbers for the different brands that we assume are equipped with SEE. If these cars manufactured numbers are growing, then the trims with SEE are clearly not growing at the same rate].
All in all there is progress but I was hoping for more.
On a general industry note:
RFW WINS:
SEYE has been announcing wins, while we may poo poo on these as small wins, they are none the less wins. We are still awaiting for SEE to announce something and it has been a while. Not of great concern at the moment as we are not going to win everything going, even PM was thinking about 50% by value and 40% by volume. Put another way out of 10 RFQ win will wing $ and others will win 6, but our $ wins will be about 50% of the total RFQ value.
SEE DMS Tech runway:
Not sure if there is a reason to be concerned about the number of patents from Car manufacturers etc for DMS, eg the one posted today by LG or even the one being worked on by GM as well as Ford. How long is our runway before these companies take this inhouse with their own offering. In any case we would hopefully have made our money and out of this share. besides if get our act together the company or what is left of it should still have the after-market.
Having seen the short video, I do believe that SEE offering is better but that is me going purely on the videos from the two companies.
I suppose all will be revealed by the RFQ wins, because clearly reading between the lines, from the statement by Martin Krantz in the SEYE video, it appears that the RFQs are now not only for just DMS but OMS. I imagine that was the delay in award as both companies OMS offering are pretty recent. Now we have ours and they have theirs let's hope the OEM will quickly the one that most satisfy their requirements.
We need contracts to drive the share price, hot air or what may or may not happen can no longer move the price. Solid quarterly KPI of increase in royalty, (cars on the road), and connected Guardian will also help drive the price, all else is just aspirational statement which any CEO can equally make.
Lewbo18,
This does not include Effectiva or iMotion.
Effectiva has a Linked in staff count of 58 and has increased by 4% in last 6 months.
iMotion has a linkedIn staff count of 76 and has decreased by 3% in last 6 months.
SmartEye has a LinkedIn staff count of 217 and has increased by 9% in last 6 months.
Seeing Machines has a LinkedIn staff count of 383 and has increased by 3% over the last 6 months.
That is the data from LinkedIn, make of it what you will.
Lewbo18,
So do we the way the price is trending. Over a year now when we were told they have about $1Bill worth of RFQ on the table and that it would be awarded in the next 6 months or so.
The fact that nothing has been awarded at the moment means that neither us nor Smart Eye at the moment have all the feature sets that the OEM are looking for, (at least that is the way I am reading it).
This has meant a nuclear race between SEE and SEYE with regards to increase in headcount. Over the last 6 months SEYE head count has increased by 9% and SEE head count increased by 3%.
I, unlike most here, believes that SEYE will do well for their investors as SEE will do well for us here. I definitely do not believe they are increasing head count just for the sake of wanting to burn money just as I believe that the increase in our own headcount is due to either working on current projects or expectation of future award.
Not really fussed about this news unless there is a behind the scenes reason for Noami leaving a bit abrupt.
Rare for a CFO to be appointed on Friday and starts work on Monday. .....Anyway just noticed that he left Altium in Feb 2022 so explains that. He has essentially been unemployed since Feb this year, even a senior management has bills to pay so why not start as soon as possible.
Irrespective CFO is not a catalyst for growth, they are there to count the beans and ensure best financial practices as well as compliance to the many financial regulations in all the countries we operate in.
I think Volvo is with SEYE but then we are not going to win everything. As long as we win enough to make good money. I think the Guardian may actually turn out to be more lucrative than for cars, as at the moment we have a distinct advantage while SEYE is still testing their offering.
Currently we are almost the only player in this market, so if SEE can hurry up and release Guardian 3, we can fully capitalise on our first mover advantage.
When in the new year? I know from PM that the Gen 3 will be this financial year and we are already 5 months into the financial year. that means that it has to be before end of June 2023... question is when?
Good news do not normally follow based on Director buy, management are not allowed to transact on share during the close period and also if they are in possession of imminent news that will move the share price.
Infact based on her purchase you can assume that there is no immediate news at the date of her purchase. Does not mean that there have not been developments since her purchase, which is okay as long as she was not aware of this at the time of her purchase.
Director's purchase is a show of confidence on the future of the company rather than an indication of what is going to happen in the next while, else it will fall into market abuse category.
WhatIf,
hopefully you are right but Polestar is co-owned by Volvo and Geely and hey use Qualcomm Snapdragon chip but it uses DMS from SEYE.
To be honest with you I do not get too carried away with which companies use Qualcomm or not as that does not translate to them using SEE for DMS. I am more excited if any OEM is going to use Magma Mirror as that will directly translate into SEE DMS.
Any way the kick up the arse that the share price needs will be based on real announcements and not innuendos of what may or may not be:
announcements of new OEM/Teir 1 contracts, announcement of increase in volumes of cars on the road, release of the GEn3 in fact things that CLEARLY demonstrates increased earning or future earning.
As it stands SEYE still has a right to claim they are the King of DMS, they have over 1Mill cars on the road and we have just shot of 500K. Will change in future but until that happens, they still have the crown irrespective of what we all think ...they have the concrete data to prove it.
Although as PM said it does not really matter who is King of DMS because the fact that you win in any round of RFQ does not mean you will win on the next round. [ Case in point is BMW which SEYE won previously but we won the latest RFQ for BMW. At each round of RFQ the needs and requirements of the OEM will change, and the winner will depend on which company that can more closely satisfy the current needs of the OEM at that particular RFQ round].
It was interesting hearing some view here that if an OEM uses Qualcomm SOC and also Magna OMS mirror that SEE would be paid twice. This is not the case as alluded to in PM presentation.
As Paul alluded to this one of the reason, we have not really announced any win from Qualcomm. Although some OEM has selected Qualcomm SOC they are not yet at the stage for selecting the options they want on the chip.
SEE is the only DMS pre backed in in the Qualcomm SOC, but just like all the other options, it is still an option that an OEM can chose. Where they chose that option, which we are hoping is in the majority of cases, then we will be paid. For example I have a Norton Anti-Virus software preloaded in the laptop I just bought; everytime I log in it keep asking me to activate the software for which of course I will need to pay the yearly fee to the software vendor. In the Qualcomm case they choose whether they want to use our SEE software that is pre-baked into the SOC and if so Qualcomm wi ll activate it and that will be a sale for us.
On the other hand, a vendor might still use Qualcomm SOC but decide to use SEE OMS via the Magna Mirror, the Magna will pay us but the SEE in the Qualcomm SOC will not be activated. Everyone that uses the Magna OMS mirror will clearly want the DMS/OMS facility from the mirror position else they will just buy a normal mirror.
Just for a case in point, Volvo is using the Qualcomm chip on the Polestar 3, but they are using Smateye as a DMS supplier, which mean that they elected not to have the SEE DMS in the SOC activated.
Same principle will apply to SEE offering now that we are getting an ecosystem where we are licensing some functionality from 3rd part vendors, say for example Smoke detection.
If a Tier1 or OEM buys SEE offering with smoke detection then we will pay royalty to the party we licensed this functionality from. If OEM/Tier 1 does not want the smoke detection functionality then we do not include that in the package we sell to them, as our selling price will depend on functionalities that the OEM chooses.
In summary there is no harm in being positive, but a good idea just keep in mind that selection of Qualcomm chip will not automatically translate to selection of SEE DMS, though we are hopeful that the majority will select what is already there and a good proportion of the rest may elect to use the mirror positioned DMS.
For the more optimistic amongst us who see Mobileye valuation and somehow think SEE should be anywhere near that valuation needs a bit of balance.
We may get to Mobileye valuation in timer but not in the near future.
Just for balance Mobileye’s 2021 revenue was $1.4 billion, FY2022 Revenue that was just announced was $35.09 Mil USD.
Hence until the money starts raining in, those that think we should be valued at £1 are smoking something they should not. That should make us a +£4 billion company with a revenue of £30.35 Mill.
A lot of patience needed here else you will give yourself a heart attack.....we will get there but not as soon as some wildly predicted timelines I have seen sometimes in this board.
If we make the lower end target of the broker report, at 20p we will be a billion £ company.
I have significant sum invested in this company but have to side with the govt on this one. They have been dilly dallying for ages. Nothing meets they own stated timelines. They should get a move on; I am not going to live forever and would like to enjoy my investment this side of the century. They either move on or the licence will be taken from them and awarded to someone else who can move things apace. I am sure someone probably has offered to do just that since I do not believe that it is the govt that all of a sudden decided they are going to run the mine themselves.
All in all I do not think this is a bad development if it gets the management to come to an understanding that they do not have forever to develop a mine.
Not really a surprise as Rolls Royce is a subsidiary of BMW. Can't see Rolls being with anyone else if their parent brand is with SEE.
They all add up though even though we will not get rich via the volume of Sells of rolls royce cars, would take them having us in Mini, which will outsell rolls royce by 10-1.