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We now (almost) have the news we have been waiting for. We also now know the reason for the protracted delay - due diligence, in the form of in-house research to validate Futura’s claims. No release date, as “Cooper will be responsible for all launch and marketing expenses”, so that will be down to them. Guess there will be more news soon about this, as the marketing is rolled out. Cooper seems an ideal fit, though not the multi-billion pharma some had hoped Futura would partner with. Whilst it has been growing rapidly, its revenues are still only €500m pa. So, a high-growth product like MED3000 will benefit both parties. Exciting times ahead.

We now (almost) have the almost news we have been waiting for. We also now know the reason for the protracted delay - due diligence, in the form of in-house research to validate Futura’s claims. No release date, as “Cooper will be responsible for all launch and marketing expenses”, so that will be down to them. Guess there will be more news soon about this, as the marketing is rolled out. Cooper seems an ideal fit, though not the multi-billion pharma some had hoped Futura would partner with. Whilst it has been growing rapidly, its revenues are still only €500. So, a high-growth product like MED3000 will benefit both parties. Exciting times ahead.

I believe anything less than either (a) news of UK and / or EU product launch or (b) award of a patent for MED3000, and FUM will track down tomorrow. We really need more than the thin gruel the master offered Oliver Twist - further news of US regulatory progress (yawn) or more licensing deals covering, eg Japan, that require further domestic regulatory clearance (yawn). Ultimately, any company has to make money to survive. Making money requires sales. The board must stop providing thin gruel, of tyre retreads in terms of information, and provide shareholders with a proper meal of product launch date and / or the patent. Preferably the former.

There seems to be a determined seller of FUM shares. At one point today, there were 13 x 25k lots to sell on the order book. These accounted for the majority of sell order volumes. As one lot is filled, another pops up to replace it. Hence the muted share price progress yesterday on news, and the decline today on no news. The beat down of the share price has been occurring through the order book. At one point recently, around 70%-80% of the daily volume were trades executed through the order book. The hard selling always seems to be early afternoon. With no news on actual launch, so light buying, the shares remain vulnerable to the determined seller. Interestingly, the CEO did hint in yesterday’s interview that a deal was being negotiated “closer to home”. Did make me wonder whether that means either a single UK distributor, a single EU distributor, or a single UK-EU distributor. Of course, that news can’t come soon enough now, to blast that seller away, and turn this share sharply north.

In last week’s The Apprentice, neither team managed to sell any baby food, triggering a double firing of the candidates by a disappointed Lord Sugar. I do wonder what he would make of Futura’s leadership. Handed a green light around 10 months ago to sell in the EU and UK, the leadership team has failed to deliver any product onto high street shelves. This would have had two benefits. First, it would have brought bring valuable cash into the company. Second, it would have enabled the product to market itself elsewhere through demonstrating commercial success in Europe. Instead, the leadership team has put a home market launch seemingly way down the list of priorities. And the added value attributed to the company by excited investors through the 84p price last spring has been gradually emaciated to 25p today. Around ¼ of its valuation by one broker. I’m pretty sure a self-made billionaire like Lord Sugar would have some rich and colourful words to say to Futura’s leadership if they were candidates for his investment. And I don’t think they would make pleasant hearing.

20 December 2021: “Futura is in advanced discussions for other commercial out-licensing agreements covering additional major regions and countries of the world with multiple interested parties. The Company looks forward to providing further updates in 2022.” So advanced that, almost 3 months later, there’s been absolutely no news. This is damaging the company’s credibility, with some skittish private investors bailing out of the stock at even 24p today. Each passing day of no positive news on near-term product launch dates in the UK and EU is breaking credibility with new individuals, turning them from holders to sellers of the share. The stream of potential good news has always been out there for Futura. But, going on for 10 months since EU certification of the product and still nothing on high street shelves anywhere, questions over the board of directors’ ability to execute in a timely manner, and translate science to high streets, are increasingly in many investors’ cross hairs. ‘Advanced’ is certainly not an accurate characterisation when we’ve now reached day 78 and still counting, with still nothing to see.

The steady dribbling down of Futura’s share price is definitely incredibly frustrating. Since it touched 84p last spring, I had expected far more in terms of news, rather than the ‘retreads’ of old news represented by far too many of its RNSs since. Bigger companies have been taken acquired in less time than it has taken it to bring MED300 to our wallets and handbags.

I guess that’s what comes of asking 10 employees to spread themselves across identifying, evaluating and signing up commercial partners in multiple geographical territories, developing sales and marketing, including manufacturing facilities and scaling supply capacity, and overseeing a US trial to satisfy the FDA.

Every trading day that brings no real news leaves the share price vulnerable to marginal sellers. Thankfully, in the background, Lombard Odier has been steadily hoovering up some of these shares, but not enough to prevent slippage of the share price now into the high 20s, and unease and frustration among some small shareholders.

I’m convinced news of actual sales beginning in the UK or in any part of the EU will be the start of a sustained catapult north of Futura’s share price.

Sex sells. Always has, always will.

This board completely lost its value months ago - since you-know-who (‘The Clown’) appeared. I filtered them months ago, but many haven’t, believing engagement with them is a better way forward. So, since they appeared, probably over 95% of the postings on this board have been about this particular person, addressed to them, etc. An exercise in futility.

Circa 40% of Futura is held in publicly known ‘safe hands’, then there is ownership by directors, and sensible long term private and institutional shareholders. The ruminations of The Clown don’t hold any appeal to any of this group.

It’s unfortunate that the commercial alliances, in particular those for the EU, have taken so long /are still unknown. Rather than build on the momentum since the share tested 83p/84p in Spring, the information vacuum about the (in short term) all important EU alliance(s) in particular has seen the share drift down to the low 30s.

In the words of Luther Vandross, potential new money is begging “give me the reason” to invest in Futura, or to trade its upward momentum. That will come with firm EU news, launch dates, publicity on traditional and social media ahead of these dates, and news on patent protection. Once Eroxon is actually being successfully used by men, Futura will become a key growth stock, supported by fundamentals, rather than one individuals like The Clown attempt to trash talk down.

The raft of good news is moving inexorably closer with each passing day…..we are clearly much closer to the end of Eroxon’s pre-commercial stage than we are to the beginning. Like the pennies in old ‘penny pusher’ slot machines, Futura’s coins in terms of good news are just about to start falling, rewarding patient investors.

Life is so very precious. Something many appreciate far too late. Each grain of sand flows one way inside the hourglass: once it’s gone, it’s gone. It is therefore completely bizarre to me that there is one person on this board who spends - no, wastes - their precious gift of time in this world posting about a share, Futura Medical, they don’t believe in.

Why not spend that time with your partner, children, friends, forming social relationships, developing a skill, volunteering, travelling, gardening, learning a language, enjoying nature, reading great literature, creating a business, keeping fit, expanding the mind and soul.....It’s such an utter waste of belonging to the human race to spend so much precious time negatively posting on a bulletin board about a company you don’t believe in. The saying “get a life” has never been more apt.

There’s a rodent in the house creating a damaging and unhealthy board environment.
I don’t read its repetitive drivel, which so many on this board have got drawn into responding to over the last three weeks. Ignore it, filter it, but don’t directly respond to it. Create an empty echo chamber for this person and their ilk. Don’t engage with their negative energy: it won’t pull you up or push you forward in life. I am all for fair, measured and balanced discussion: I make my point, positive or negative, may come back to support it in some way, but eventually I move on. I’m not going to anchor my precious life around a single idea. No one wins all battles.

Futura’s gel has been statistically successful in trials. It’s on the verge of successful EU approval. Whether it is commercially successful will become evident once the product is available to buy and experience. Some men will not find it useful, but all known statistical evidence indicates more will than won’t.

Now for me to get on with living a full and positive life, away from that rodent in human form, so that I can give a good account of my time here on this earth to St Peter....

Futura Medical has started trading on SETS today. So, market makers are no longer the sole arbiters of prices outside of existing auction periods. That means private investors who endlessly claim market maker “tricks and manipulation” of the share price will now have to find a new ball to kick for price movement in this stock. It also means those private investors without Direct Market Access may no longer obtain the best execution prices, if these are offered by investors with DMA rather than by market makers, used by many stockbrokers. It’s interesting that one investor has already offered 50,000 shares at 400p. It’s also interesting that market maker spreads have widened, with even PEEL having a 5p spread. A few weeks ago, when the China-Asia commercial deal was announced, its spread was just 1p, and it was taking both sides of the trade. With SETS now in place, I’d expect the expected stream of good news to lead to multiple trading halts in the stock, to rebalance supply and demand, with more intra-day gapping in prices. So, anyone on the sidelines when (the good) news hits will likely have to pay more of a premium buy into the stock.

Someone recently mentioned Futura Medical as possibly being another Fevertree. The latter rose from 165p on 11 November 2014 to £39.56 on 10 September 2018. Two factors lay behind this rise. First, it rose on 54% of trading days, declined on 42% of them, and remained flat on other 4%. Second, on gaining days it rose 1.71%, but on declining days fell only 1.39%.

And the relevance of this to Futura Medical? After two advancing days since last Friday, we’ve had three declining days (assuming today ends negative). But, those two advancing days were worth much more than the three declining days. So, investors shouldn’t worry about the pullbacks, and days where the share loses ground: they are normal, even with outstanding investments like Fevertree. Shares consolidate at different levels, up or down. Over the longer term, good investments will have more positive days than negative days, and on those positive days advance more than they fall on negative days. So over time they show a steady or strong uptrend.

That’s the big picture.

Which is missed if you look at three days of retreat and sell up. Lesson: don’t micro-manage investments. You have to allow the investment story to unfold.

The Fevertree story also points to another lesson: the past is no guide to the future. Today, it’s share price is £17 below the peak of 2018. Too many on here fret that Futura has promised in the past, but disappointed. But the truth is, until now, it’s been an R&D pharma with little in the way of sales. This is a truly transformational moment for the company, when it will become a commercial pharma, with sales than create profits and dividends. Lesson: don’t look back, look forward.

Two lessons: don’t look back, look forward; and don’t micro-manage investments.

Someone recently mentioned Futura Medical as possibly being another Fevertree. The latter rose from 165p on 11 November 2014 to £39.56 on 10 September 2018. Two factors lay behind this rise. First, it rose on 54% of trading days, declined on 42% of them, and remained flat on other 4%. Second, on gaining days it rose 1.71%, but on declining days fell only 1.39%.

And the relevance of this to Futura Medical? After two advancing days since last Friday, we’ve had three declining days (assuming today ends negative). But, those two advancing days were worth much more than the three declining days. So, investors shouldn’t worry about the pullbacks, and days where the share loses ground: they are normal, even with outstanding investments like Fevertree. Shares consolidate at different levels, up or down. Over the longer term, good investments will have more positive days than negative days, and on those positive days advance more than they fall on negative days. So over time they show a steady or strong uptrend.

That’s the big picture.

Which is missed if you look at three days of retreat and sell up. Lesson: don’t micro-manage investments. You have to allow the investment story to unfold.

The Fevertree story also points to another lesson: the past is no guide to the future. Today, it’s share price is £17 below the peak of 2018. Too many on here fret that Futura has promised in the past, but disappointed. But the truth is, until now, it’s been an R&D pharma with little in the way of sales. This is a truly transformational moment for the company, when it will become a commercial pharma, with sales than create profits and dividends. Lesson: don’t look back, look forward.

Two lessons: don’t look back, look forward; and don’t micro-manage investments.

They look but they do not see; they listen but they do not hear. Very apt to describe those on this board who grossly misrepresent the information contained in RNSs and what’s said by Futura Medical execs on webcasts. With them, there is no straight line of truth, just an arc of distortion.

It’s abundantly clear final EU certification will be received by May this year. That’s been made clear by the company at least 3 times in the past week, including in two webcasts.

But the twisters try to make the short tail wag the long dog, and throw focus on the need for a further trial to satisfy the FDA. Completely ignoring the raft of near imminent positives that will transform FUM commercially.

I’m as sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west that FUM will be substantially higher than 55p by year end. But getting from here to there (and beyond) will likely be a very volatile and turbulent ride until investors have more clarity about adoption and usage rates of the gel. Even the ‘poster child’ share of 2020, NYCT, would trade over 200p one day, below in the mid 60s two days later, and next day be at almost 200p again. It topped out at almost £12.

Once final EU certification is received, FUM can start selling its product in Europe (and in some territories beyond). It will want to start doing so as quickly as possible. Which means there’s added urgency to sign commercial partners by the time final clearance is given. As well, every day with final clearance but without sales eats into that precious period to 2039 of patent protection (awaited). Things have to happen very quickly now.

Everyone in at 55p will make money on FUM if they have patience. Not as much as they would have made if they had bought in at the sub 8p price of 2020, or even the 13p available earlier this year. But those are super rewards earned only by the very brave and very patient.

Futura Medical created the first of many big tremors on Friday - final EU regulatory clearance by end May. The epicentre was the official RNS.

Like any seismic event, the initial shock takes time to propagate outwards. That’s why although the share opened in the mid 20s, it finished the day at 49p.

Today it opened higher, partly because the news has been further propagated outwards through The Times, Daily Mail, The Sun and other outlets over the weekend.

There are the weeklies next - eg Investors Chronicle, The Economist - and beyond that TV and magazine reports on erectile dysfunction. Time for a more considered, value-adding view. Once the product becomes available in H2 2001, awareness of and interest in the magic gel will go viral through social media (Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp...), and men will use it, if for nothing else than the novelty value of a product that promises to turn them into bedroom Supermen in 10 minutes.

Add in numerous licensing deals opening up the world to OTC usage of the gel, upfront cash payments, royalties, its DermaSys cannabidiol delivery system, an executive team holding substantial numbers of shares, institutional investor backing, and only 246m shares in issue.....and where it opened and finishes today means diddly squat in the big scheme of things. This is a ‘fabless’ pharma company that’s about to become enormously cash flow positive, with sales covered by a patent (pending) offering market protection until 2039. Those prospective protected cash flows will make it a hugely attractive takeover target.

The initial tremor has hit, today’s news and more will follow over the coming months.

On the back of its ‘failed’ Phase III, I first bought in at sub-8p. Why? Because the statistics for MED3000 don’t lie, and the FDA is simply wasting time demanding a confirmatory study to such clear-cut statistically significant results. The stock’s progress has been held back by regulators. Last Friday, the most crucial of their approvals arrived. When finalised, it will enable global sales, given online buying. FDA demands will delay the gel’s arrival in the United States, but not affect its delivery there, online, from H2 2021.

In the words of the commentator calling home the great Triple Crown winner, Secretariat, in the Belmont Stakes, Futura Medical is set to become a “tremendous machine” of riches for those shareholders with sufficient patience to wait for the story to unfold. The waves from future tremors will propagate outwards, and sales start to rise on an exponential basis, with (depending on final FDA clearance) 2023-2024 the first full year of both physical and online sales in all territories. This is a defining moment of the tectonic plates of the erectile dysfunction market shifting in Futura Medical’s favour. Think Apple, Coca Cola, ARM, Facebook, YouTube...

Which will it be? “If only I hadn’t sold....”? Or, “I’m glad I held.....”?

Avoid the impatience of Saul.