Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Futura Medical has started trading on SETS today. So, market makers are no longer the sole arbiters of prices outside of existing auction periods. That means private investors who endlessly claim market maker “tricks and manipulation” of the share price will now have to find a new ball to kick for price movement in this stock. It also means those private investors without Direct Market Access may no longer obtain the best execution prices, if these are offered by investors with DMA rather than by market makers, used by many stockbrokers. It’s interesting that one investor has already offered 50,000 shares at 400p. It’s also interesting that market maker spreads have widened, with even PEEL having a 5p spread. A few weeks ago, when the China-Asia commercial deal was announced, its spread was just 1p, and it was taking both sides of the trade. With SETS now in place, I’d expect the expected stream of good news to lead to multiple trading halts in the stock, to rebalance supply and demand, with more intra-day gapping in prices. So, anyone on the sidelines when (the good) news hits will likely have to pay more of a premium buy into the stock.
Someone recently mentioned Futura Medical as possibly being another Fevertree. The latter rose from 165p on 11 November 2014 to £39.56 on 10 September 2018. Two factors lay behind this rise. First, it rose on 54% of trading days, declined on 42% of them, and remained flat on other 4%. Second, on gaining days it rose 1.71%, but on declining days fell only 1.39%.
And the relevance of this to Futura Medical? After two advancing days since last Friday, we’ve had three declining days (assuming today ends negative). But, those two advancing days were worth much more than the three declining days. So, investors shouldn’t worry about the pullbacks, and days where the share loses ground: they are normal, even with outstanding investments like Fevertree. Shares consolidate at different levels, up or down. Over the longer term, good investments will have more positive days than negative days, and on those positive days advance more than they fall on negative days. So over time they show a steady or strong uptrend.
That’s the big picture.
Which is missed if you look at three days of retreat and sell up. Lesson: don’t micro-manage investments. You have to allow the investment story to unfold.
The Fevertree story also points to another lesson: the past is no guide to the future. Today, it’s share price is £17 below the peak of 2018. Too many on here fret that Futura has promised in the past, but disappointed. But the truth is, until now, it’s been an R&D pharma with little in the way of sales. This is a truly transformational moment for the company, when it will become a commercial pharma, with sales than create profits and dividends. Lesson: don’t look back, look forward.
Two lessons: don’t look back, look forward; and don’t micro-manage investments.
Someone recently mentioned Futura Medical as possibly being another Fevertree. The latter rose from 165p on 11 November 2014 to £39.56 on 10 September 2018. Two factors lay behind this rise. First, it rose on 54% of trading days, declined on 42% of them, and remained flat on other 4%. Second, on gaining days it rose 1.71%, but on declining days fell only 1.39%.
And the relevance of this to Futura Medical? After two advancing days since last Friday, we’ve had three declining days (assuming today ends negative). But, those two advancing days were worth much more than the three declining days. So, investors shouldn’t worry about the pullbacks, and days where the share loses ground: they are normal, even with outstanding investments like Fevertree. Shares consolidate at different levels, up or down. Over the longer term, good investments will have more positive days than negative days, and on those positive days advance more than they fall on negative days. So over time they show a steady or strong uptrend.
That’s the big picture.
Which is missed if you look at three days of retreat and sell up. Lesson: don’t micro-manage investments. You have to allow the investment story to unfold.
The Fevertree story also points to another lesson: the past is no guide to the future. Today, it’s share price is £17 below the peak of 2018. Too many on here fret that Futura has promised in the past, but disappointed. But the truth is, until now, it’s been an R&D pharma with little in the way of sales. This is a truly transformational moment for the company, when it will become a commercial pharma, with sales than create profits and dividends. Lesson: don’t look back, look forward.
Two lessons: don’t look back, look forward; and don’t micro-manage investments.
They look but they do not see; they listen but they do not hear. Very apt to describe those on this board who grossly misrepresent the information contained in RNSs and what’s said by Futura Medical execs on webcasts. With them, there is no straight line of truth, just an arc of distortion.
It’s abundantly clear final EU certification will be received by May this year. That’s been made clear by the company at least 3 times in the past week, including in two webcasts.
But the twisters try to make the short tail wag the long dog, and throw focus on the need for a further trial to satisfy the FDA. Completely ignoring the raft of near imminent positives that will transform FUM commercially.
I’m as sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west that FUM will be substantially higher than 55p by year end. But getting from here to there (and beyond) will likely be a very volatile and turbulent ride until investors have more clarity about adoption and usage rates of the gel. Even the ‘poster child’ share of 2020, NYCT, would trade over 200p one day, below in the mid 60s two days later, and next day be at almost 200p again. It topped out at almost £12.
Once final EU certification is received, FUM can start selling its product in Europe (and in some territories beyond). It will want to start doing so as quickly as possible. Which means there’s added urgency to sign commercial partners by the time final clearance is given. As well, every day with final clearance but without sales eats into that precious period to 2039 of patent protection (awaited). Things have to happen very quickly now.
Everyone in at 55p will make money on FUM if they have patience. Not as much as they would have made if they had bought in at the sub 8p price of 2020, or even the 13p available earlier this year. But those are super rewards earned only by the very brave and very patient.
Futura Medical created the first of many big tremors on Friday - final EU regulatory clearance by end May. The epicentre was the official RNS.
Like any seismic event, the initial shock takes time to propagate outwards. That’s why although the share opened in the mid 20s, it finished the day at 49p.
Today it opened higher, partly because the news has been further propagated outwards through The Times, Daily Mail, The Sun and other outlets over the weekend.
There are the weeklies next - eg Investors Chronicle, The Economist - and beyond that TV and magazine reports on erectile dysfunction. Time for a more considered, value-adding view. Once the product becomes available in H2 2001, awareness of and interest in the magic gel will go viral through social media (Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp...), and men will use it, if for nothing else than the novelty value of a product that promises to turn them into bedroom Supermen in 10 minutes.
Add in numerous licensing deals opening up the world to OTC usage of the gel, upfront cash payments, royalties, its DermaSys cannabidiol delivery system, an executive team holding substantial numbers of shares, institutional investor backing, and only 246m shares in issue.....and where it opened and finishes today means diddly squat in the big scheme of things. This is a ‘fabless’ pharma company that’s about to become enormously cash flow positive, with sales covered by a patent (pending) offering market protection until 2039. Those prospective protected cash flows will make it a hugely attractive takeover target.
The initial tremor has hit, today’s news and more will follow over the coming months.
On the back of its ‘failed’ Phase III, I first bought in at sub-8p. Why? Because the statistics for MED3000 don’t lie, and the FDA is simply wasting time demanding a confirmatory study to such clear-cut statistically significant results. The stock’s progress has been held back by regulators. Last Friday, the most crucial of their approvals arrived. When finalised, it will enable global sales, given online buying. FDA demands will delay the gel’s arrival in the United States, but not affect its delivery there, online, from H2 2021.
In the words of the commentator calling home the great Triple Crown winner, Secretariat, in the Belmont Stakes, Futura Medical is set to become a “tremendous machine” of riches for those shareholders with sufficient patience to wait for the story to unfold. The waves from future tremors will propagate outwards, and sales start to rise on an exponential basis, with (depending on final FDA clearance) 2023-2024 the first full year of both physical and online sales in all territories. This is a defining moment of the tectonic plates of the erectile dysfunction market shifting in Futura Medical’s favour. Think Apple, Coca Cola, ARM, Facebook, YouTube...
Which will it be? “If only I hadn’t sold....”? Or, “I’m glad I held.....”?
Avoid the impatience of Saul.